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US jobs in focus: here’s what the markets expect

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US employment data will keep the market on its toes throughout the week with JOLTs job openings data to be released to Tuesday afternoon.

 Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Monday 02 October 2023 10:38

The consensus is that employment openings are expected to remain broadly unchanged on last month, when they fell to their lowest since May 2021. On Wednesday, ADP employment change is expected to slow for a third straight month. The forecast is for 160,000 job creations in the private sector, after 177,000 in August. And on Friday, we'll get September non-farm payrolls. Job creations are forecast to slow down. Early expectations are for 163,000 jobs to be added to the US economy. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has this overview.

The JOLTS job opening

This week, there are some important facts that will affect the market. One thing to pay attention to is the US employment data. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings are expected to stay stable compared to last month. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment change, which comes out on Wednesday, is expected to show a slowdown for the third month in a row, with a prediction of 160,000 new jobs in the private sector. And on Friday, the September non-farm payrolls report will be released, with a forecast of a slowdown in job creation, with around 163,000 new jobs added to the US economy.

The US job market

In simpler terms, this means that economists think the US job market is doing well and the efforts made by the US Federal Reserve to control the economy are working. It's kind of like a reward for their hard work.

The US dollar

Another thing to watch out for is how the USD is doing in comparison to other currencies. Even though it had a strong quarter, the dollar is currently a bit weaker. It might have some challenges this week because there will be a lot of information coming out. However, the dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by the expectation that interest rates in the US will go up soon.

To sum it all up, the market is going to be paying close attention to the US employment data, as well as how it affects the job market and the US dollar. This data will give us a better idea of how the economy is doing and what we can expect for the future.



This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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