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Outlook 2024: recession risks loom large

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While recession fears largely evaporated in 2022 and 2023, IG market analyst Pablo Gil tells IGTV’s @AngelineOng why 2024 will be a year of reckoning for investors, and how to position for this.

 Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 October 2023 11:07

(Video summary)

The global market forecast: recession looms, dollar soars

IG analyst Pablo Gil and IGTV presenter, Angeline Ong, dive into the current global market situation, touching on sticky inflation, strikes happening worldwide, and the struggle of central banks to control inflation.

Pablo believes that the impact of the fight against inflation won't show until 2024, and a recession could become a real concern within the next six to eight months. To explain why, he points out consumer-related indicators that reveal a weakening consumer due to the cost of living crisis and inflation crunch. For example, things like consumption and credit defaults are showing signs of decline.

Market predictions for 2024: sell-offs and weakening demand

Looking ahead to 2024, Pablo predicts certain market effects, such as sell-offs in the equity market, a stronger dollar, and reduced commodity prices. These predictions stem from the expectation that consumption and global demand will decrease.

However, he cautions that once the recession hits, inflation won't be the main concern anymore. Instead, the lack of growth and its impact on the labour market will become a pressing issue.

To add to the complexity of the market landscape, Pablo and Angeline touch upon geopolitical tensions between the US and China, as well as tensions between the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and G7 countries. They highlight that globalisation dynamics are changing, with different perspectives emerging from countries like China, Russia, and Middle Eastern nations. Geopolitical risks are on the rise and are unlikely to be resolved in the near future.

Overall, this video provides valuable insights for those looking to understand the current global market situation in a more accessible and engaging manner.



This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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