Jump to content

Market update: euro plunges after US CPI data, leaving EUR/USD at risk amid more bullish retail bets


Recommended Posts

Euro plunges most since early October on US CPI data; in response, retail traders boosted upside EUR/USD bets and prices also rejected the key falling trendline from July.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 
Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Friday 13 October 2023 05:11

The euro plunged over 0.8% against the US dollar on Thursday after a higher-than-expected US CPI report, which boosted Treasury yields. That was the worst single day drop since early October. EUR/USD’s drop pushed retail traders to boost upside exposure, which can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS). The latter tends to function as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will the euro continue lower from here?

EUR/USD sentiment outlook – bearish

The IGCS gauge shows that about 69% of retail traders are net-long EUR/USD. Since most of them remain biased higher, this continues to hint that prices may fall down the road. This is as upside bets increased by 10.46% and 5.62% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall exposure and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian outlook.

IG client sentiment for EUR/USD chart

 

original-size.webpSource: DailyFX

EUR/USD's technical analysis

Focusing on the daily chart below, EUR/USD has turned lower following a rejection of the falling trendline from July. This has reinstated the broader downside focus following cautious gains since the beginning of this month. Now, immediate support is the March low of 1.0516. Below that is the 100% Fibonacci extension level of 1.0436.

Breaking lower opens the door to extending the broader downtrend, exposing the 123.6% Fibonacci extension level of 1.0315. On the other hand, a turn higher and push above the falling trendline would open the door to an increasingly bullish outlook. That exposes the 61.8% level of 1.0631.

Euro daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • lower, as suggested
    • Cardano (ADA) has been a hot topic among crypto enthusiasts, especially with predictions that it could hit $10 in the next bull run. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers, the current market situation, and what experts are saying about ADA’s future potential. Current Cardano (ADA) Price and Market Performance Current Price: Cardano ADA is currently priced at $0.33 per Coinpedia Markets. 24-Hour Performance: In the last 24 hours, ADA has dropped by 5.30%, with a trading volume of $314,728,694. Weekly Growth: Despite the recent dip, ADA has spiked over 5% in the past week. Price Targets and Key Levels Experts believe Cardano has the potential for a significant rally. Here’s a breakdown of the key levels to watch: Immediate Resistance: ADA needs to break above the $0.3458 resistance level for any upward momentum. Short-Term Target: If ADA can push through $0.3458, it could rally past the $0.50 mark. Bullish Potential: Price action experts say ADA could even reach $1.50 before November if the momentum continues. Long-Term Target: Looking ahead, some believe ADA could hit $10 during the next major bull run. What’s Fueling This Optimism? The Cardano ecosystem has been buzzing with activity. One recent development that could drive ADA’s growth is the launch of a highly anticipated decentralized application (dApp) called Snake.Fun. This dApp is expected to boost the Cardano network’s usage, leading to higher trading volumes for ADA. Analysts from the DeFi sector are optimistic, stating that if Cardano maintains its current growth trajectory, the $10 price target could be achievable in the long term. The Market Share Debate: Has Cardano Bottomed Out? Rick McCracken, a key figure in the Cardano community, recently sparked a debate by asking his followers about ADA’s market share dominance. Here’s what we know: ADA’s Market Share: For the last two months (since July), Cardano’s market share has stabilized at 0.6%. Community Opinions: Some community members believe ADA has bottomed out, signaling a potential rebound. Others are more cautious, suggesting that ADA needs to grow and retest the 0.77% level to confirm a bottom. Despite the mixed opinions, there’s a sense of cautious optimism among ADA holders. Even Rick McCracken himself believes that the next bull market could change the game for Cardano. What’s Next for Cardano? The future looks promising, but ADA still has some hurdles to clear. Breaking above the $0.3458 resistance level is key for any sustained upward movement. If that happens, a rally toward $1.50 could be on the horizon before the year ends. However, the real question remains: Can Cardano (ADA) reach $10 in the next bull run? While the answer isn’t set in stone, the current growth within the ecosystem, along with the market’s cautious optimism, suggests that it’s a possibility worth considering. Conclusion: Is $10 Achievable? The journey to $10 won’t be easy, but it’s not out of the question. If Cardano can break through key resistance levels and continue to grow its ecosystem, the next bull run could push ADA to new heights. For now, keep an eye on the charts and watch for signs of a breakout above $0.3458—if that happens, Cardano’s rally could just be getting started.  
    • ASX: WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED - WOW Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED - WOW. We see WOW is probably about to enter a Bull Market phase with wave ((iiii))-navy of wave 3-grey. ASX: WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED - WOW 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Intermediate degree, orange)  Mode: Motive  Structure: Impulse  Position: Wave ((ii))-navy of Wave (3)-orange.  Details: Wave ((i))-navy has just ended, and wave ((ii))-navy seems to be unfolding to push lower, aiming at targets at 34.75 - 34.32. Finally, wave ((iii))-navy will return to continue pushing higher.  Invalidation point: 32.98 ASX: WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED - WOW 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, navy)  Mode: Motive  Structure: Impulse  Position: Wave (b)-orange of Wave ((ii))-navy  Details: Wave ((ii))-navy is unfolding to push lower, I don't think it's over yet, as wave (a)-orange may have just completed, and wave (b)-orange is pushing a bit higher, then wave (c)-orange may come back to push lower, targeting the low around 78.60%. Finally wave ((iii))-navy may come back to push higher.  Invalidation point: 120.59 Conclusion:  Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED - WOW aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us