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Market update: Fed stays put, keeps hiking bias; gold & US dollar display limited volatility


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The Federal Reserve stands pat on monetary policy, keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the second straight meeting; and forward guidance leaves the door open for further policy firming

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 02 November 2023 05:48

The Federal Reverse Bank today concluded its penultimate conclave of the year, voting unanimously to keep the target for its reference interest rate at a 22-year high within the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The move was largely in line with recent guidance offered by various central bank officials and Wall Street consensus expectations.

The decision to retain the status quo represents a commitment to a data-driven approach. This game plan may buy time to better evaluate the totality of incoming information and properly assess the impact of past actions on the broader economy, considering that monetary policy tends to operate with unpredictable and variable lags.

The FOMC has increased rates 11 times since 2022

To offer some context, the FOMC has increased borrowing costs 11 times since 2022, delivering 525 basis points of cumulative tightening to slow down elevated price pressures, that had diminished the purchasing power of most Americans. The strategy has yielded positive results, albeit at a gradual pace, with headline CPI running at 3.7% y-o-y in September after exceeding 9.0% last year.

At the last two meetings, however, policymakers have decided to stay put, reflecting their pledge to proceed carefully in the face of growing uncertainties. Several officials have also noted that the bond market has been doing the job for them by tightening financial conditions thorough higher yields, reducing the necessity for an excessively aggressive communication bias.

September headline and core us inflation chart

 

original-size.webpSource: BLS

FOMC policy statement

In its communiqué, the Fed struck a constructive tone on growth, noting that economic activity has expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter, a subtle upgrade from the previous characterization of “moderate”.

The positive tone was bolstered by comments on the labor market, which underscored that job gains have moderated but remain strong, and that the unemployment rate has stayed low. On consumer prices, the statement noted that inflation remains elevated and that policymakers will be “highly attentive” towards the associated risks, mirroring comments from last month.

Shifting the spotlight to forward guidance, the language remained largely unchanged, with the FOMC indicating that it would consider various factors “in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent over time”. Keeping this message unaltered might be a strategic move to preserve maximum flexibility should additional actions become necessary in the future to contain inflation.

Immediately after the FOMC announcement crossed the wires, gold prices stayed in negative territory despite the pullback in yields. The U.S. dollar (DXY index), meanwhile, held onto daily gains, but market movements were subdued as traders awaited comments from Jay Powell, who may offer additional clues on the central bank's next steps.

US dollar, yields and gold prices chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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