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Market update: US dollar up but bearish risks grow, setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD before Powell


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The US dollar extends its recovery as yields push higher; Powell’s speech on Friday will take center stage. What are key levels to watch on EUR/USD and GBP/USD?

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

 Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York | Publication date: 

The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, extended its recovery on Thursday, boosted by a bounce in US treasury yields following remarks from San Francisco Federal Reserve president, Mary Daly indicating that the FOMC is not yet considering slashing borrowing costs. Daly's forceful position, which clashes with the more cautious posture embraced by other colleagues, highlights a widening chasm between the doves and the hawks.

Upcoming market events

 

original-size.webpSource: DailyFX

To address uncertainties regarding the broader central bank’s stance, traders should closely monitor Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Spelman College on Friday. This event might serve as a platform for the FOMC chief to provide clarification on the monetary policy outlook.

Hawkish comments endorsing higher interest rates for longer are likely to exert upward pressure on US yields, creating the right conditions for the dollar to prolong its nascent rebound. On the flip side, a lack of pushback on dovish market pricing ( many rate cuts for 2024 already discounted) could drag yields, weighing on the greenback.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD fell for a second consecutive day on Thursday, with losses accelerating after the release of weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation data for November. If the pullback gathers steam in the coming trading sessions, the lower boundary of a short-term ascending channel at 1.0890 may act as support, but the prospect of a drop towards 1.0840 cannot be ruled out if a breakdown unfolds.

Conversely, if bulls regain control of the market and the exchange rate resumes its recent advance, the first ceiling to watch is positioned at 1.0960, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fib retracement of the July/October slump. On further strength, a revisit to November’s peak is probable, followed by a potential rally towards horizontal resistance at 1.1080.

EUR/USD technical chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD also retreated on Thursday, but managed to remain above technical support in the 1.2590 region. This moderate pullback is unlikely to signal a shift towards a negative outlook; rather, it may represent a brief pause in the near-term uptrend.

Upholding cable’s bullish outlook requires the pair to stay above 1.2590. If this floor holds, GBP/USD may soon resume its upward trek following a brief consolidation period, paving the way for a move towards 1.2720, the 61.8% Fib retracement of the July/October slide. Continued strength might direct attention to the 1.2800 handle.

On the flip side, if losses intensify and sellers manage to drive prices below 1.2590, we might observe a drop toward both the 100-day simple moving average and 1.2460 in the case of sustained weakness.

GBP/USD technical chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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