USD: US jobs in focus for Fed’s next rate move

[MongiIG]

US employment data will be in focus this week with a set of indicators that could give us more clues on what the US Federal Reserve will do next with interest rates.

 

 

 Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Monday 04 December 2023 11:27

On Tuesday, JOLTs job openings are forecast to fall to 9.35 million in October. On Wednesday, the ADP survey should show that 128,000 jobs have been created in the private sector in November – and on Friday, its non-farm payrolls (NFPs). Economists anticipate 180,000 job creations in November. That is 30,000 more than in October, but 30,000 is also the number of workers that have returned to work from the UAW strikes. A soft job report would reinforce the message that the Fed's work is done.

The US employment data

This week, we’re focusing on the US employment data, which will give us a better idea of what the Federal Reserve might do next. Experts think that this data will show more problems in the job market. On Tuesday, we'll get the jolts job openings report, which is expected to show a drop to 9.35 million job openings in October. Then on Wednesday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) survey will probably tell us that about 128,000 new private sector jobs were created in November. This is better than the previous month, but still one of the weakest months of the year. Finally, on Friday, the non-farm payrolls report is likely to say that about 180,000 new jobs were added in November, which is 30,000 more than in October. However, this number includes 30,000 workers who went back to work after going on strike. If the job report is weak, it would mean that the Federal Reserve has done all they can to fix things.

The US dollar

On the other hand, if the numbers are better than expected, it could make the USD stronger. Looking at the US dollar price chart, it's showing slight improvements right now, even though it had three weeks of losses recently. Currently, it's up by 0.23% compared to other major currencies today. To sum it up, the upcoming US employment data will give us more information about the job market and will affect what the Federal Reserve does next. Economists think this data will show more problems in employment. If the job report is not good, it would support the idea that the Federal Reserve has done what they can. But if the numbers are better than expected, it could make the US dollar stronger.

 

 

 

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