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USD: US jobs in focus for Fed’s next rate move


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US employment data will be in focus this week with a set of indicators that could give us more clues on what the US Federal Reserve will do next with interest rates.

 

 

 Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: 

On Tuesday, JOLTs job openings are forecast to fall to 9.35 million in October. On Wednesday, the ADP survey should show that 128,000 jobs have been created in the private sector in November – and on Friday, its non-farm payrolls (NFPs). Economists anticipate 180,000 job creations in November. That is 30,000 more than in October, but 30,000 is also the number of workers that have returned to work from the UAW strikes. A soft job report would reinforce the message that the Fed's work is done.

The US employment data

This week, we’re focusing on the US employment data, which will give us a better idea of what the Federal Reserve might do next. Experts think that this data will show more problems in the job market. On Tuesday, we'll get the jolts job openings report, which is expected to show a drop to 9.35 million job openings in October. Then on Wednesday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) survey will probably tell us that about 128,000 new private sector jobs were created in November. This is better than the previous month, but still one of the weakest months of the year. Finally, on Friday, the non-farm payrolls report is likely to say that about 180,000 new jobs were added in November, which is 30,000 more than in October. However, this number includes 30,000 workers who went back to work after going on strike. If the job report is weak, it would mean that the Federal Reserve has done all they can to fix things.

The US dollar

On the other hand, if the numbers are better than expected, it could make the USD stronger. Looking at the US dollar price chart, it's showing slight improvements right now, even though it had three weeks of losses recently. Currently, it's up by 0.23% compared to other major currencies today. To sum it up, the upcoming US employment data will give us more information about the job market and will affect what the Federal Reserve does next. Economists think this data will show more problems in employment. If the job report is not good, it would support the idea that the Federal Reserve has done what they can. But if the numbers are better than expected, it could make the US dollar stronger.

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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