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DAX's historic gains amid eurozone's inflation easing


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Dive into DAX's record-breaking run, fuelled by Eurozone inflation easing. Explore market dynamics, technical analysis, and potential risks.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: 

Last week marked a historic fifth consecutive gain for the DAX, echoing patterns not seen since October 2022.

The DAX’s gains last week were supported by a Eurozone inflation report, which showed inflation eased to 2.4% in November, its lowest level since July 2021. Core inflation fell to 3.6% in November from 4.2% in October. With disinflation in Europe playing out much like in the US, it's no surprise that the European interest rate curve is pricing in five 25bp ECB rate cuts by the end of 2024.

The UK rates market isn’t quite as excited about BoE rate cuts. Although headline inflation has fallen from 10.7% to 4.6% last month, core inflation at 5.7% is still too high. This explains why the UK rates market is pricing in just two and a half BoE rate cuts in 2024.

The contrasting inflation and interest rate outlook between the Eurozone and the UK helps to explain why the DAX gained 9.41% in November while the FTSE gained only 1.8% during the same time.

FTSE daily chart

 

Source: TradingView

DAX technical analysis

Like its US counterpart, the S&P 500, the DAX has gotten very close, but thus far, failed to break above its year-to-date highs.

As viewed on the RSI, the DAX is at extremely overbought levels, and while we remain bullish into year-end, we would not contemplate opening fresh longs at these levels. Instead, we would prefer to use dips back towards support at 16,100/16,000, looking for the DAX to retest and break above the 16,615 July high in the weeks ahead.

Aware that a sustained break below the support of the 200-day moving average at 15782 would warn that the rally has run its course and that a deeper pullback is underway.

DAX daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

  • Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 5 December 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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