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Surviving a Bull Market in Crypto


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In this buoyant market with Bitcoin hitting $42,000 and Ethereum reaching $2,200, there's a risk of getting swept up in the excitement fueled by wealth screenshots shared online. However, after impulsive investments, many realize they might still be at a loss, far from outperforming Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Here are key takeaways to survive a bull market gleaned from over six years of experience:

01 Few Profits in a Bull Market
A bull market implies rising cryptocurrency prices, driven by an optimistic outlook. Yet, making profits is not for everyone. Regardless of positive news or technology, price surges happen when buying outpaces selling. Bull markets inflate numbers but only a few benefit.

02 Preventing Bull Market Missteps
In this evolving industry, new narratives emerge with each market rally, driving interest. To navigate:

- New Narratives: Expect new storylines; innovation typically starts on-chain. Current trends hint at Bitcoin's ecosystem and various emerging concepts.
- Consensus and Open-mindedness: Consensus drives interest. Keeping an open mind is crucial to understand new narratives.
- Identifying Leaders: Market cap often defines leadership, but sectors may lack clear leaders or witness transitions.
- Top Institutional Trends: Monitoring top institutions' moves is crucial, although they might influence the market significantly.

03 Pitfalls to Avoid
Despite market surges, human impulses persist. Here are key pitfalls:

- Leveraged Contracts: Playing these is risky; initial success may lead to overconfidence, resulting in significant losses.
- All-In Attitude: Don't exhaust your capital; respect the market and learn from past market crashes.
- Frequent Trading: Emotional trading often results in losses; patience is vital.
- Following Trends Blindly: Avoid blindly following trends; understanding the project you're investing in is crucial.

.Surviving a bull market isn't about picking money off the ground; it's about staying steady and avoiding pitfalls in an enticing yet volatile landscape.

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4 hours ago, DifDrama said:

Bitcoin

Market update: is Bitcoin on the way to $50k or retracement first?

Bitcoin nears $45k; options suggest $50k surge. Crypto resilient, market cap up $750B since Nov '22.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

IG Analyst | Publication date: 

Bitcoin finally stalls following five successive days of gains totaling +-16% and coming within a whisker of the $45k mark. The performance of Bitcoin and the crypto industry in 2023 continues to surprise given the challenges being faced by the industry over the past 18 months.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is approaching $1T in market cap and is up 180% since November 2022. The 45% of that growth has been recorded over the past six weeks as speculation continues to grow regarding the spot Bitcoin ETF. As things stand, based on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's NAV discount, which has narrowed dramatically, the market assigns a probability of around 90% that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve such a vehicle.

The crypto industry as a whole is benefitting at present having added approximately $750 billion of market cap since November 2022. Looking at the crypto heatmap below and surprisingly the major cryptos appear to be experiencing a lull today which could also be down to some profit taking following the recent rally, while altcoins continue to rise with avalanche up as much as 11%+ on the day.

Crypto market chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

Crypto industry resilience

If the last 24 months have proven anything it's that crypto is here to stay. Having faced unprecedented challenges and many powerful and vocal proponents to its uses and use cases with the latest being JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who stated he is deeply opposed to crypto. His argument being the same as countless others who attribute crime, money laundering and tax evasion which is ironic considering the US dollars role in crime across the globe. A story for another time.

Of course, Bitcoin does have its vocal supporters with the likes of ARKS Cathy Wood and MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor. The failure of US banks this year may have been a blessing in disguise for the crypto industry. There are still clouds hovering over the industry, but this is becoming a normality with market participants hardly taking notice anymore, or so it may seem.

BlackRock announce seed funding for Spot ETF of $100k which is small but it is just a first step with cash likely to change hands a lot quicker once an approval occurs. This shows commitment by BlackRock is ensuring that they are ready for a potential approval.

Bitcoin price outlook

From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is approaching a key area of resistance around the $45k mark. However, options markets are hinting that Bitcoin will hit $50k by January with the Spot Bitcoin ETF expected to be approved early in January as well. The question I am grappling with is what will come first? A test of the $50k mark or the spot Bitcoin ETF approval?

Open interest for Bitcoin $50,000 strike calls is massive, as displayed in the chart below with options also suggesting the recent rally is just the beginning.

Open interest chart for Bitcoin

 

original-size.webpSource: Kobeissi Letter

Resistance levels:

  • 45000
  • 47500
  • 50000

Support levels:

  • 42500
  • 40000
  • 38590

BTCUSD daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 07/12/2023 at 13:17, MongiIG said:

Market update: is Bitcoin on the way to $50k or retracement first?

Bitcoin nears $45k; options suggest $50k surge. Crypto resilient, market cap up $750B since Nov '22.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

 

IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 07 December 2023 07:53

Bitcoin finally stalls following five successive days of gains totaling +-16% and coming within a whisker of the $45k mark. The performance of Bitcoin and the crypto industry in 2023 continues to surprise given the challenges being faced by the industry over the past 18 months.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is approaching $1T in market cap and is up 180% since November 2022. The 45% of that growth has been recorded over the past six weeks as speculation continues to grow regarding the spot Bitcoin ETF. As things stand, based on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's NAV discount, which has narrowed dramatically, the market assigns a probability of around 90% that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve such a vehicle.

The crypto industry as a whole is benefitting at present having added approximately $750 billion of market cap since November 2022. Looking at the crypto heatmap below and surprisingly the major cryptos appear to be experiencing a lull today which could also be down to some profit taking following the recent rally, while altcoins continue to rise with avalanche up as much as 11%+ on the day.

Crypto market chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

Crypto industry resilience

If the last 24 months have proven anything it's that crypto is here to stay. Having faced unprecedented challenges and many powerful and vocal proponents to its uses and use cases with the latest being JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who stated he is deeply opposed to crypto. His argument being the same as countless others who attribute crime, money laundering and tax evasion which is ironic considering the US dollars role in crime across the globe. A story for another time.

Of course, Bitcoin does have its vocal supporters with the likes of ARKS Cathy Wood and MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor. The failure of US banks this year may have been a blessing in disguise for the crypto industry. There are still clouds hovering over the industry, but this is becoming a normality with market participants hardly taking notice anymore, or so it may seem.

BlackRock announce seed funding for Spot ETF of $100k which is small but it is just a first step with cash likely to change hands a lot quicker once an approval occurs. This shows commitment by BlackRock is ensuring that they are ready for a potential approval.

Bitcoin price outlook

From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is approaching a key area of resistance around the $45k mark. However, options markets are hinting that Bitcoin will hit $50k by January with the Spot Bitcoin ETF expected to be approved early in January as well. The question I am grappling with is what will come first? A test of the $50k mark or the spot Bitcoin ETF approval?

Open interest for Bitcoin $50,000 strike calls is massive, as displayed in the chart below with options also suggesting the recent rally is just the beginning.

Open interest chart for Bitcoin

 

original-size.webpSource: Kobeissi Letter

Resistance levels:

  • 45000
  • 47500
  • 50000

Support levels:

  • 42500
  • 40000
  • 38590

BTCUSD daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

My plan with BTC...

& I think it's gonna play!

IMG_20231216_091226.jpg

IMG_20231216_091249.jpg

  • Like 1
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Leveraged contracts can be a wild ride, but they can also burn you really badly. And going all-in? That's a recipe for disaster. Patience is your best buddy in this game.
As for staying informed, yeah, keeping tabs on new narratives and what the big players are doing is smart. But don't blindly follow trends – that's a quick way to lose your shirt.
Now, if you're still hungry for knowledge, I've got a suggestion. You might wanna check out AI tools like Immediate Edge. They can help you navigate this crazy crypto world without drowning in charts and numbers.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 27/12/2023 at 18:22, capitulinagarage said:

Leveraged contracts can be a wild ride, but they can also burn you really badly. And going all-in? That's a recipe for disaster. Patience is your best buddy in this game.
As for staying informed, yeah, keeping tabs on new narratives and what the big players are doing is smart. But don't blindly follow trends – that's a quick way to lose your shirt.
Now, if you're still hungry for knowledge, I've got a suggestion. You might wanna check out AI tools like Immediate Edge. They can help you navigate this crazy crypto world without drowning in charts and numbers.

High lev isn't really a good option in bull market... One can gain unreal profit on spot ! Just like BGB did in latest bear wave .

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16 hours ago, XTRAVAGANZA said:

True that, leverage is a way two edged sword that should be handled with a high level of skill and discipline. Talking about AI tools, indeed, they are providing solutions to various functions and departments within major cryptocurrency exchanges. The M.D of Bitget Exchange Gracy Chen has this to say about AI tools "Cryptocurrency exchanges are finding novel ways to improve internal departments and functions using artificial intelligence"

Crypto exchanges are using AI for quite a long time. Specially Binance excessively uses AI on their live customer support. Bitget's AI trading bot, a lot more to come...

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