Jump to content

OPEC sticks to robust growth expectations ‌

Recommended Posts

In a surprise move OPEC has given its global oil demand predictions early in the year.

 Written by: Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: 

It has stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said 2025 will see a robust increase in oil use led by China and the Middle East. These type of announcements usually come mid-year. Is it a sign that OPEC is concerned that oil demand will start to fade and OPEC feels the need to boost the market? It is a view which contrasts with other bodies. The IEA for example predicts oil demand will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy. The IEA executive director Fatih Birol, told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum yesterday he expected a comfortable, more balanced oil market with a significant increase in oil output from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana this year, just as global demand growth slows.

(AI Video Summary)

Growth in China and the Middle East

OPEC recently made an announcement about the future of oil demand. They believe that the demand for oil will continue to grow strongly until 2024 and even extend into 2025. This growth will mainly be driven by China and the Middle East, where people are using more and more oil. This announcement was surprising because OPEC originally planned to give this prediction in July.

The International Energy Agency

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has a different view. They predict that oil demand will reach its peak by 2030 as people start to transition to cleaner energy sources. The executive director of the IEA, Fatih Birol, thinks that the oil market will become more balanced and comfortable. He believes that countries like the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana will increase their oil production, which could lead to lower prices due to the combination of higher supply and slower demand growth.

Brent oil prices

Looking at the price of Brent, which is the benchmark for oil prices according to OPEC, there has been a recent downward movement indicated by Elliott Wave. However, analysts are still waiting for a breakthrough of a symmetrical triangle formation to determine the direction more clearly. If the breakthrough is upwards, it could result in a three-wave recovery and oil prices could reach as high as $8,508. On the other hand, if the breakthrough is downwards, oil prices could drop to levels not seen since March 2023, when they went above $70.

The American Petroleum Institute

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories increased by half a million barrels last week. Gasoline stockpiles, on the other hand, decreased by 2.5 million barrels, while distillates saw an increase of 600,000 barrels.

To summarize, OPEC believes that oil demand will continue to grow strongly, but the IEA predicts a more balanced market with declining demand in the future. The future direction of oil prices is uncertain, as it depends on a breakthrough from a symmetrical triangle. Additionally, inventory data shows mixed results for crude oil, gasoline, and distillate stockpiles.



This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Asian shares rose to a one-month high on Wednesday, led by a rally in tech stocks like Nvidia which surpassed Microsoft to become the world's most valuable company. The dollar was steady as soft US retail sales data reinforced expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates later this year. Markets are pricing in around 48 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed in 2024. Trading is expected to be muted due to the US markets being closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday. Oil prices were steady, with Brent crude around $85 per barrel and WTI crude near $81.5 per barrel. UK inflation slowed to 2% year-on-year in May, from 2.3%, and held at 0.3% month-on-month. Core CPI slowed to 3.5% YoY from 3.9%. 
    • Alpha Trade is about to launch a sub-brand - Alpha Trade Seychelles In order to better meet the more segmented requirements of investors in the investment field, we are pleased to announce that at the end of summer 2024, we will launch a sub-brand regulated by Seychelles - Alpha Trade Seychelles. We are currently selecting the office address and finalizing the relevant management personnel. We believe that in a short time, we will be able to launch Alpha Trade Seychelles to provide investors with better and more diversified services. As a global high-quality liquidity provider, Alpha Trade's meticulous and customized liquidity service solutions have long been recognized by a wide range of investors and brokers. With the establishment of Alpha Trade Seychelles, our products will be richer, with more free leverage options and more liquidity docking, which will make it easier to meet the execution of investors' diversified strategies and shorten the execution time, which will help investors get better quotes in strategy operations.
    • ASX: V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart)   Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS. We confirmed that wave 2-grey has ended and wave 3-grey is opening to push higher.   ASX: V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   ASX: V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Minor degree, grey) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((iii))-navy of Wave 3-grey Details: The short-term outlook shows that wave ((ii))-navy has just ended and it seems that wave ((iii))-navy is opening to push higher, while price must always maintain above 94.64 to maintain this view. Invalidation point: 94.64   ASX: V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (4-Hour Chart) ASX: V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ASX: V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, navy) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave (ii)-orange of Wave ((iii))-navy Details: The shorter term outlook shows that wave ((i))-navy has just ended at 94.64 and wave ((iii))-navy is unfolding, it is subdividing into wave (i)-orange and it's over, now it's time for wave (ii)-orange to open up to push a little lower, after which wave (iii)-orange can return to push higher. Invalidation point: 94.64   Conclusion:   Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: V300AEQ ETF UNITS – VAS aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends.   Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
  • Create New...