Jump to content

AUD/USD down for fourth week; eyes on Australia's q4 inflation before RBA decision

Recommended Posts

AUD/USD falls for the fourth week to .6573, with upcoming q4 inflation data set to impact RBA's rate decision amid China's stimulus and Australian tax cuts.


original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg


 Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: 

A fourth consecutive weekly fall for the AUD/USD, as it finished the week at .6573 (-0.35%), extended its pullback from the late December .6871 high.

Last week's weakness in the AUD/USD came despite the price of iron ore snapping a two-week losing streak and new stimulus announcements in China, including a cut to the Reserve Requirement Ratio.

On top of this, the Australian federal government is tinkering with the stage three income take-cuts, which will boost the economy more than previously estimated by the RBA, and reduce the prospect of rate cuts in the second half of 2024.

This week's key local economic event for the AUD/USD will be Wednesday's December quarter (Q4) inflation data - one of the last pieces of data the RBA will receive before its first board meeting of 2024 on Tuesday, February 6th.

What is expected from Australia's December quarter (Q4) inflation data (Wednesday, January 31st at 11.30 am)

In the September 2023 quarter (Q3), headline inflation rose by 1.2%, up from 0.8% in the June quarter and above expectations for a 1.1% increase. Annual Trimmed mean inflation eased to 5.2%, from 5.9% in the June quarter, but it is still well above the RBA's 2-3% inflation target.

In the December quarter (Q4), headline inflation is expected to increase by 0.8% for an annual rate of 4.3%. The Trimmed mean is expected to rise by 0.9%, allowing the annual trimmed mean rate to ease to 4.3%. At this rate, inflation will be below the RBA's forecast of 4.5% (for trimmed mean) and support expectations of RBA rate cuts in the second half of 2024.

Australian trimmed mean inflation chart


original-size.webpSource: TradingEconomics

AUD/USD technical analysis

Looking past the price action over the past eight sessions, which has seen the AUD/USD tightly pinned to the 200-day moving average at .6581.

From the October .6270 low to the December .6871 high, the AUD/USD gained just under 10% in two months. The rally unfolded in five waves (Elliott Wave), which suggests the pullback from the .6871 high is part of a correction rather than a reversal lower.

This view is supported by the AUD/USD continuing to hold above a strong layer of horizontal support at .6520/00, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October to December rally at .6500c.

Therefore, leaning against support at .6520/00, a positive bias is in place, looking for a rebound initially towards resistance at .6700/25. The bullish view would increase in confidence on a daily close above recent highs in the .6620 area.

Aware that if a sustained break of .6520/00 were to occur, it would warn that a deeper decline is unfolding towards 6400c.

AUD/USD daily chart


original-size.webpSource: TradingView

  • Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 29 January 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.



This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Crypto trading is a bit complicated when it comes to understanding the dynamics in profit making. Some people are more inclined to technical analysis which of course has been the widely used trading tool but some are more inclined to fundamentals but sticking to fundamentals alone could be highly risky in my own opinion even though crypto is also financial instrument that often respond to news updates.  A blend of the two could provide a safety net for traders in minimizing losses compared to potential profit. The above case scenario is largely attributed to perp futures trading and other derivatives. TA and FA could also be very useful for spot trading but I feel timely listing of projects could largely determine one's profit from investing in a project. These may not be for all projects cos some are **** coins. This could be a personal perspective but I have noticed listing speed is also another important factor to consider along with project fundamentals when trading and if we are to include listing speed as a factor for choosing trade then it will affect our choice of trading platform cos some are more inclined to top cap projects while others are more inclined low cap gems.   My experience with ORDI has proven this trading skill rewarding. ORDI was first listed on Bitget before other exchange joined the listing party after it saw rapid adoption reflecting in it significant MCap growth. This chart should give us a glimpse of my experience with this strategy.
    • In a stunning display of market momentum, the PANDORA token, the first of its kind, has skyrocketed an astonishing 4872% from its introduction on February 2nd to February 7th. This remarkable performance has not only caught the attention of cryptocurrency enthusiasts but has also solidified PANDORA’s position as a groundbreaking asset in the digital currency landscape. Pandora's ERC-404 protocol revolutionizes the token landscape by seamlessly blending the qualities of ERC20 and ERC721 standards. This experimental mixed implementation enables persistent liquidity and non-fungibility for NFTs, unlocking a realm of possibilities previously unexplored. Adding to the excitement, Bitget Wallet is gearing up to introduce a specialized section dedicated to ERC-404 token market listings. This feature creates a hub for tokens that blend the best of both worlds—the liquidity of ERC-20s and the uniqueness of ERC-721 NFTs. I have come to believe that, the electrifying surge of PANDORA token and the innovative ERC-404 standard is not just a fleeting trend but a window into the future of cryptocurrency.
    • A significant turning point in the #PORTALxBitget collaboration is the listing of $PORTAL on Bitget through the Candybomb event, which opens up benefits and synergistic prospects like 1. Diversified Trading choices: Users now have access to a wide range of trading choices thanks to $PORTAL's listing on the exchange, including cutting-edge leveraged trading capabilities and spot trading. This gives customers the freedom to interact with $PORTAL in a way that suits their preferred level of risk and trading techniques. 2. Community Synergy: By uniting the exchange users and the pre-existing $PORTAL community, the Candybomb event stimulates community engagement. Through this synergy, a positive environment surrounding #PORTALxBitget may be developed, encouraging cooperation, information exchange, and sustained interest in the project. Could this recent collab stimulate the  stage for a fruitful and mutually beneficial relationship between #PORTAL and exchange.
  • Create New...