Jump to content

Wall Street: US stocks soar to records on tech earnings, job surge


Recommended Posts

US stocks reach new highs post-FOMC, fueled by tech earnings and a robust January jobs report. Ahead: economic insights and Fed speeches amid February's market challenges.

Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia
 
Publication date: 

After a brief FOMC-inspired volatility episode mid-week, regular service resumed as US stock markets finished last week at fresh record highs, following strong earnings reports from Mega Tech (Meta +20.32%) and a robust jobs report. For the week, the Dow Jones added 545 points (+1.43%), the S&P 500 added 1.38% and the Nasdaq gained 1.27%.

Non-farm payrolls on Friday night surprised to the upside as the US economy added 353k jobs in January, smashing expectations for a gain of 180k. The number was accompanied by cumulative upward revisions over the prior two months of 126k, as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, slightly below the 3.8% forecast. The US rates market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a rate cut in March, down from a near 80% probability in early January.

The US economic calendar is much lighter this week, following a blockbuster couple of weeks. ISM services PMI will be of interest, as well as updated thoughts from Fed speakers, including Bostic, Bowman, and Barkin. US Q4 earnings season continues this week with reports scheduled from companies including McDonalds, Caterpillar, Alibaba, Walt Disney, Uber, Paypal and PepsiCo.

As we push deeper into February, it is worth remembering that February is traditionally one of the more challenging months of the year for US equity markets. The slippery slope usually starts in mid-February and extends into the first week of March.

S&P 500 Seasonality Index

 

original-size.webpEquityclock.com

What is expected from the ISM Services PMI (Tuesday, February 6th at 2 am)

Last week, the ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations, increasing by two points to 49.1, the highest level since 2022. The increase was driven by new orders and production, which entered expansionary territory, and supported the idea of a turn higher in manufacturing after fifteen months in contractionary territory.

This week, attention turns to the ISM service PMI (Tuesday, February 6th at 2 am). It is expected to print at 51.7, rebounding from 50.4 in December, representing continued expansion in the services sector.

ISM Service PMI chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingEconomics

S&P 500 technical analysis

After a strong rally for the S&P 500 into the end of 2023, we started the new year in a more cautious/neutral frame of mind.

We remain of the view that the S&P 500 is in the final stages (Wave V) of its rally from the October 2023 low, and note again, the bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart. Bearish RSI divergence occurs when prices make new highs; but the RSI fails to make a new high.

Furthermore, the S&P 500 cash is closing in on the psychologically important 5000 resistance level, which is being reinforced by trendline resistance at 5020, drawn from the December 1st 4100 high, viewed on the chart below.

As such, we remain patient, waiting for a pullback to develop in the coming weeks in the order of 5-8%.

S&P 500 daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

Nasdaq technical analysis

After a strong rally for the Nasdaq into the end of 2023, we started the new year in a more cautious/neutral frame of mind.

We remain of the view that the Nasdaq is in the final stages (Wave V) of its rally from the October 2023 low. However, a break/ daily close below uptrend support at 17,100, coming from the October lows, is needed to suggest that the Nasdaq has topped and that a deeper retracement towards support at 16,200/16,000 is underway. Until then, allow for the Nasdaq to extend its rally towards 18,000.

Nasdaq daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

  • Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 5 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Currently run multiple portfolios across ISA, SIPP and a GIA account mostly invested in shares, ETFs and smart portfolios.  There doesnt seem to be any sensible way of looking at historical P&L across my accounts or even on a per account basis.  Tracking this myself in a spready is dull dull dull. I know IG used to be a fairly bare bones brokerage, but is trying to market itself as an investment platform (c/f Cricket ads).  IG clearly have the required data and this is pretty core capability for an investment platform. Where is it?
    • Coffee Elliott Wave Analysis Coffee prices are beginning to turn lower after completing a key technical chart pattern. The commodity has been on a strong upward trajectory since October 2023, but a corrective decline now seems likely before the next leg of the rally resumes, continuing the bullish sequence from late 2023. This analysis explores the potential for a pullback and identifies key levels where the next move higher could emerge.   Long-Term Chart Analysis Coffee prices have historically traded within a wide range, with support levels between $40 and $55, and resistance levels ranging from $276 to $337. The current bullish cycle for coffee started back in May 2019, marking the beginning of a significant upward move. The first phase of this cycle peaked in February 2022, when coffee prices reached notable highs. A corrective second phase followed, ending with a bottom in January 2023. After this low, the third and ongoing phase of the bullish cycle began, and it is evolving as part of a larger corrective pattern within the broader Elliott Wave structure.   The third phase of the rally appears to be developing as a corrective wave, which is part of the larger impulse that started in 2019. With this in mind, the current price action suggests that further gains may come, but not before a significant pullback takes place.   Daily Chart Analysis On the daily chart, the third phase of the recovery completed its first leg, labeled wave (W), in April 2023. This was followed by a three-wave corrective structure, wave (X), which ended at 143.70 in October 2023, confirming support at that level. The subsequent rally represents wave (Y) of the primary degree wave W (circled), completing the bullish phase.   Wave (Y) of W (circled) appears to have formed an ending diagonal structure, signaling the exhaustion of the uptrend. With this structure potentially completed, a corrective pullback in wave X (circled) is expected. Given the sub-wave structure, this correction could take the form of a double zigzag, a complex corrective pattern that typically leads to further downside before the uptrend resumes.   H4 Chart Analysis On the H4 chart, wave (Y) of W (circled) has completed a diagonal pattern, indicating that the rally is running out of steam. The immediate decline that has followed can be identified as wave W of (W) of Y (circled), the first phase of the larger corrective structure. A bounce in wave X is anticipated, but it is expected to remain below the August 2024 high. Once this bounce is complete, another leg lower in wave Y of (W) is likely, completing the initial correction phase.   Thus, while the long-term trend remains bullish for coffee, the market appears to be in the midst of a bearish retracement that could extend lower over the coming weeks. This corrective phase will likely persist as long as the August 2024 high is not breached, offering traders an opportunity to reassess before the next major rally unfolds.   Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • PANW Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, PaloAlto Networks Inc., (PANW) Daily Chart  PANW Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend  MODE: Impulsive  STRUCTURE: Motive  POSITION: Minor 1 of (5).  DIRECTION: Upside into wave 1.   DETAILS: Looking for a resumption of the uptrend after what appears to be a three wave move into wave (4), as we currently stand between TL3 and 400$. PANW Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 1H Chart, PaloAlto Networks Inc., (PANW) 1H Chart  PANW Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend  MODE: Impulsive  STRUCTURE: Motive  POSITION: Wave {iii} of 1.    DIRECTION: Bottom in wave {ii}.  DETAILS: We could also have bottomed in wave 2 already, instead of {ii}. Looking for upside into wave {iii} as we seem to have a clear three wave move into wave {ii}. In this latest Elliott Wave analysis for Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW), we utilize the Elliott Wave Theory to break down PANW's price movements. This analysis will provide traders with insights into potential market opportunities based on the current structure and trends. We'll examine both the daily and 1-hour charts for a clearer understanding of PANW's price trajectory.  * PANW Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* The daily chart shows that Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is in an impulsive trend. The price is currently progressing within Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (5). After completing a corrective three-wave move in wave (4), PANW appears to be resuming its uptrend.  * PANW Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1H Chart* The 1-hour chart indicates that PANW is progressing within wave {iii} of 1, a highly impulsive and dynamic phase. The analysis suggests that the stock has likely bottomed in wave {ii}, marking the end of a corrective phase. The structure shows a clear three-wave move into wave {ii}, adding confidence to the scenario that wave {iii} is now in play. Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!
×
×
  • Create New...
us