Jump to content

Market update: gold prices inch back from Fed-inspired battering, hold above $2000


Recommended Posts

Gold prices are in the green after two days of big falls; last week’s news of US labor market strength continues to weigh. However, falls have been more limited than other assets.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

IG Analyst
 
Publication date: 

Gold prices have managed some modest gains on Tuesday, after a punishing few sessions, courtesy of the United States’ labor market and the Federal Reserve.

Last week’s news of astonishing job creation has seen interest-rate-cut bets taken off for March, although a May move remains very much in play. This will hugely benefit the dollar.

The prospect of US borrowing costs remaining higher for longer has taken a clear, obvious toll on gold - in a double whammy for the metal. It suffers once by virtue of being non-yielding; and then again thanks to the fact that so many gold products are priced in US dollars, so more expensive for everyone trying to pay for them with other currencies.

It’s notable, however, that gold has suffered rather less from last week’s play than some other assets (such as sterling). The current broad market scene still offers perceived haven assets like the precious metal plenty of support. After all investors are fretting the prospect of a tougher battle against inflation and a broad spectrum of geopolitical risk from Gaza, the Red Sea, Ukraine, the South China Sea and so on. China’s economic underperformance is also simmering away.

Given all of that, it’s perhaps not too surprising that prices have remained above the important $2000/ounce level, even as the dollar’s strength has brought that level rather closer to the market.We’re heading into a rather quieter period of scheduled economic data, which will leave gold prices in thrall to general market risk appetite and, in all likelihood, whatever coming individual Fed speakers have for the market.

Gold prices technical analysis

Prices are once again testing the bottom of their wide, dominant uptrend channel from mid-November, an extension of the gains made since early October’s lows.

The tell-tale higher highs and higher lows of a ‘pennant’ formation are also visible on the daily chart. As a continuation pattern this ought perhaps to indicate that prices will begin to rise again once it plays out, as they did before, but there’s obviously no guarantee they will.

For now, the uptrend channel offers support at $2030.25 level, with 17 January’s intraday low of 1972.88 lying in wait should that give way. A conclusive break of the uptrend, however, might mean a deeper retracement. Near-term resistance is at 2 February’s top of $2056.96 ahead of trendline resistance at $2063.84.

IG’s own sentiment data on gold is mixed, but, with 64% of traders coming to the metal from the bullish side, enough to suggest that the market is looking for modest gains at current levels.

Gold price daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Wheat Elliott Wave Analysis Function - Trend Mode - Trend Structure -Impulse wave Position - Wave A of (B) Direction - Wave A of (B) is still in play Details -  Wheat daily and H4 have been adjusted due to how fast and deep decline from 720’4 has emerged. The long-term forecast on the daily chart shows that the surge to 720’4 is part of the impulse wave from March 2022. We are now in wave (5) which is expected to emerge into a 3-wave structure. Price now appears to be in wave A after which it will correct upside for B before returning downside. Overview: Since late May, grain prices have been falling sharply, with Wheat shedding over 20% since May 28th, 2024. This decline is about to erase the gains made from mid-April to late May. The nearly one-month sell-off adds to the long-term decline from March 2022, when Wheat traded at 1364’4. Currently trading at 571’4, Wheat is likely to fall further toward 500 in the coming weeks.   Daily Chart Analysis: The decline from March 2022 is forming a bearish impulse wave structure in the primary degree. The 5th wave is completing a diagonal structure, which has been the most time-consuming among the actionary waves, lasting nearly 21 months. The price is currently in wave (5) of 5 (circled), which will likely evolve into a 3-wave structure targeting the 500 major psychological level.   H4 Chart Analysis: The H4 chart shows the sub-waves of wave (5), which is now close to completing its first leg - wave A of (5). A corrective bounce is expected to follow for wave B before the price turns downside for wave C of (5) toward 500, provided the 720’4 pivot is not breached. Wheat and other grains are overwhelmingly bearish and may continue in this direction for the next several weeks before major bullish corrections begin.   In conclusion, Wheat prices remain bearish with potential for further declines, targeting the 500 psychological level, contingent on the completion of the current corrective wave B and the subsequent wave C of (5). Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • Dear @Naren12166, Thank you for the post. Please note that we don't have a definite date but the product team is in the testing phase, a few countries should have Trading View soon. Thanks, KoketsoIG
    • TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) Daily Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Triangle POSITION: Wave {iv}. DIRECTION: Bottom in wave {iv}.   DETAILS: Looking for a triangle in wave {iv} of 3 as we have found resistance on TL2 at 200$.     TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., ( TXN) 4Hr Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Triangle POSITION: Wave (e) of {iv}. DIRECTION: Bottom in (e).   DETAILS: Looking for wave (e) to be near completion to then resume higher and find support on top of 200$.   Welcome to our latest Elliott Wave analysis for Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN). This analysis provides an in-depth look at TXN's price movements using the Elliott Wave Theory, helping traders identify potential opportunities based on current trends and market structure. We will cover insights from both the daily and 4-hour charts to offer a comprehensive perspective on TXN's market behavior.   * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* In our Elliott Wave analysis of Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), we observe a counter-trend corrective pattern characterized by a triangle structure. TXN is currently positioned in wave {iv} of 3, suggesting a bottoming process in wave {iv}. The recent price action indicates that TXN has encountered resistance around the TL2 trendline at $200. This resistance could imply the formation of a triangle in wave {iv}, setting the stage for a potential resumption of the upward trend once the triangle completes. Traders should monitor the $200 level for signs of a breakout or further consolidation within the triangle.   *TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* On the 4-hour chart, TXN is following a counter-trend corrective mode within a triangle structure, specifically in wave (e) of {iv}. The current analysis suggests that wave (e) is nearing completion, which could signal the end of the triangle and the beginning of a move higher. The completion of wave (e) should ideally find support above the $200 level, aligning with the daily chart's indication of a possible upward resumption post-triangle. Traders should watch for the termination of wave (e) and the subsequent price action to confirm a bullish continuation.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us