Market update: US dollar 2024 - PCE impact on forex, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY analysis
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By tradinglounge · Posted
Gold Elliott Wave Analysis Function - Trend Mode - Impulse Structure - Impulse wave Position -Wave 4 Direction - Wave 5 Details - Wave 5 still struggles around the Fibonacci support zone. A diagonal seems to be developing for blue wave ‘c’ of 4. Still needs a sharp break out of the diagonal for wave 5 to begin. Invalidation remains at 2245.17. Gold’s price trajectory stands as a resolute testament to bullish sentiment, with a clear resurgence in the long-term uptrend since its nadir in September 2024, bottoming out at 1616. Since this pivotal low, the precious metal has demonstrated remarkable resilience, marking a gain exceeding 40%. Yet, a correction in this bullish trajectory commenced on April 12, 2024. Noteworthy is the corrective nature of this pullback, hinting that it is merely a transient pause before the commodity recommences its ascent to new highs. Delving into the daily chart through an Elliott wave lens, the 1616 bottom signifies the completion of the supercycle degree wave (IV). The ensuing rally represents wave (V) of the same degree, unfolding in an impulse fashion. The initiation of wave III of (IV) from the October 2023 low at 1810 has progressed in a robust impulse, presently navigating the intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 3 (blue circled). Therefore, ample runway remains before the culmination of wave (V). Simplifying our analysis, attention is best directed towards the intermediate wave (3), currently undergoing a corrective phase labeled as wave 4, projected to find support within the 2315.5-2246 Fibonacci zone. Turning to the H4 chart, two potential corrective scenarios emerge: 1st Scenario The first scenario illustrates a zigzag pattern originating from the 2432 peak. Here, blue wave ‘c’ completes an ending diagonal, with confirmation of bullish momentum anticipated at 2353 for the onset of wave 4. However, this diagonal would be invalidated if prices dip below 2258.9. 2nd Scenario Conversely, the second scenario portrays a double zigzag structure unfolding from the 2432 peak, possibly extending to the 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement range of wave 3 at 2246-2191 before wave 4 concludes and wave 5 initiates. In summation, while Gold’s price trajectory remains bullish, it currently experiences a corrective setback. A breach above 2353 would favor the first scenario, whereas a breach below 2258.8 would nullify it, ushering in the second scenario, projected to find support within the 2246-2191 zone. After wave 4, the resumption of wave 5 should propel prices to fresh highs. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here! -
Asian stocks surged to their highest level in 15 months on Friday, led by gains in tech and Hong Kong stocks. The Japanese yen put more distance from its recent 34-year lows against the US dollar, capping a volatile week that saw suspected intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. With Japanese and Chinese markets closed on Friday, regional trading activity was subdued ahead of nonfarm payrolls data later in the day. The yen strengthened 0.43% to 152.99 per dollar on Friday, after touching a 34-year low of 160.245 on Monday. Traders suspect Japanese authorities spent roughly $60 billion to defend the yen this week. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was set for a 0.8% decline this week, its worst weekly performance since early March. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week and signalled that its next policy move will be to lower rates, although strong inflation readings suggest the first cut could be a long time coming. In after-hours trading, Apple's stock surged nearly 7% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and unveiling a record share buyback program. -
By tradinglounge · Posted
GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart, British Pound/U.S.Dollar(GBPUSD) Day Chart GBPUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: corrective STRUCTURE: red wave 2 POSITION: blue wave 1 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: red wave 3 DETAILS: red wave 2 is in play and looking near to end . Wave Cancel invalid level: 1.22954 The GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis for the Day Chart examines the British Pound against the U.S. Dollar, using Elliott Wave theory to interpret market trends, corrective phases, and wave structure. This summary focuses on the broader context, highlighting the mode, structure, position, and key levels that define the current wave pattern. ### Function The function of the ongoing pattern is classified as "Trend," indicating that the overall market direction is moving in a continuous pattern, suggesting a broader Elliott Wave cycle. ### Mode The mode is described as "corrective," indicating that the current wave structure represents a consolidation phase within a broader trend. Corrective phases typically involve three smaller waves, indicating a temporary pause or sideways movement before the trend resumes. ### Structure The structure identified is "red wave 2," suggesting that the current corrective wave is part of a broader Elliott Wave sequence. Corrective structures are typically a series of three smaller waves, often indicating a period of consolidation within a larger trend. ### Position The position within the structure is "blue wave 1," indicating that the ongoing corrective pattern is part of a larger wave sequence. This implies that the broader trend, represented by blue wave 1, is currently undergoing a consolidation phase before likely resuming its trend. ### Direction for the Next Higher Degrees The direction for the next higher degrees is "red wave 3," indicating that once the current corrective phase (red wave 2) is complete, the market is expected to resume its impulsive trend, leading to further price movement. ### Details The details section notes that "red wave 2" is currently in play and appears to be nearing its end. The Wave Cancel invalid level is set at 1.22954, suggesting that if the market price drops below this level, the current wave structure may be invalidated, indicating a potential shift in trend. In summary, the GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis for the Day Chart indicates that the market is in a corrective phase (red wave 2) within a broader trend (blue wave 1). This phase is likely approaching its end, with the subsequent impulsive phase (red wave 3) expected to begin soon. The Wave Cancel invalid level at 1.22954 acts as a critical threshold; if the price falls below this level, the existing wave pattern may be invalidated, necessitating a reevaluation of the broader trend and market direction. GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour Chart, British Pound/U.S.Dollar(GBPUSD) 4 Hour Chart GBPUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: red wave 2 POSITION: blue wave 1 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: red wave 3 DETAILS: red wave 2 is in play and looking near to end . Wave Cancel invalid level: 1.22957 The GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis for the 4-Hour Chart provides a detailed examination of the British Pound against the U.S. Dollar, focusing on the Elliott Wave structure to determine the trend, mode, and current wave position. It also outlines key levels to monitor for validating or invalidating the ongoing wave pattern. ### Function The function of the current market pattern is identified as "Trend," indicating that the general direction of the market is following a continuous movement, suggesting that the structure represents a larger wave cycle within the Elliott Wave framework. ### Mode The mode is "Corrective," indicating that the structure in play represents a correction within a larger trend, often characterized by sideways or counter-trend movements. This correction phase typically follows impulsive waves, allowing the market to consolidate before resuming its broader trend. ### Structure The structure highlighted is "red wave 2," suggesting that the current wave pattern is in a corrective phase of the broader trend. Corrective structures often involve three sub-waves, indicating a pause or consolidation before a return to the trend. ### Position The position within the structure is "blue wave 1," indicating that the current corrective pattern (red wave 2) is part of a larger wave cycle. This suggests that the broader trend, represented by blue wave 1, is experiencing a temporary consolidation phase. ### Direction for the Next Higher Degrees The direction for the next higher degrees is "red wave 3," indicating that once the corrective phase completes, the market is expected to resume its impulsive trend, likely leading to further upward movement. ### Details The details section notes that "red wave 2" is in play, indicating that the corrective phase is ongoing and appears to be approaching its end. The Wave Cancel invalid level is set at 1.22954, suggesting that if the market price falls below this level, the current wave structure may be invalidated, signaling a potential shift in trend. In summary, the GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis for the 4-Hour Chart suggests that the market is currently in a corrective phase (red wave 2) within a broader trend (blue wave 1). The corrective structure appears to be approaching its conclusion, with the next impulsive phase (red wave 3) expected to start soon. The Wave Cancel invalid level at 1.22957 serves as a crucial benchmark, indicating that if the price drops below this level, the corrective structure may be invalidated, requiring a reassessment of the wave pattern and the broader market trend. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!
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