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Market update: euro strengthens despite expected ECB June rate cut

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Despite ECB rate cut forecasts, the Euro climbs against the USD and GBP. US economic data could influence this uptrend.


original-size.webpSource: Getty


Written by: Nick Cawley | Analyst, DailyFX, London
Publication date: 

The euro has gained against the US dollar and the British pound recently, even as markets anticipate a European Central Bank rate cut in June. However, any weakness in the US dollar could be temporary, as upcoming US Q1 GDP and core PCE data may support the view of sustained higher US interest rates.

The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair trading on either side of 1.0700 after rebounding from 1.0600 last week. The April 16th multi-month low coincided with a heavily oversold CCI reading which is now being erased. All three simple moving averages are above the spot price and in a negative pattern, while the pair has posted two major lower highs and lower lows since the end of last year. The next level of resistance is seen at 1.0787, while a confirmed break of 1.0600 will bring 1.0561 and 1.0448 into play.

EUR/USD daily price chart


original-size.webpSource: TradingView

EUR/USD sentiment analysis: traders build net-shorts, prices may still fall

Retail trader data shows 59.30% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.46 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.54% lower than yesterday and 16.77% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.90% higher than yesterday and 35.35% higher than last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

EUR/GBP jumped last week after Bank of England (BoE) commentary that UK inflation is falling towards target. The BoE rate cut expectations were brought forward, weakening sterling against a range of currencies. EUR/GBP hit a multi-month high but partially retraced the move yesterday after the CCI indicator flashed a heavily overbought reading. In the short term, the recent double high around 0.8645 should act as resistance if the 200-day simple moving average is broken. The 0.8550 is currently guarded by both the 20- and 50-day SMAS.

EUR/GBP: traders cut net-shorts on the week, prices may fall

According to the latest retail trader data, 51.62% of traders are net-long on EUR/GBP, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.07 to 1. The number of net-long traders has increased by 22.75% compared to yesterday but decreased by 26.67% from last week.
Conversely, the number of net-short traders has decreased by 15.19% since yesterday but increased by 61.45% from last week. The contrarian view to crowd sentiment suggests that EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall, despite the current mixed trading bias.

EUR/GBP daily price chart


original-size.webpSource: TradingView




This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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