OPEC Monthly Oil Report

[JamesIG]

Interesting PDF from OPEC which maybe useful for any oil traders. It's a very long article, but you could always just read each primary headers intro paragraphs to get a broad overview.  >> Link

 

World economy extract

The global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well to stand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 was better than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and to some extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil are supporting the growth trend in the short-term.

 

Impact of US dollar and inflation on oil prices extract

On average, the US dollar (USD) advanced against both major currency counterparts and the currencies of emerging markets. This upward trend started mid-September, as concerns about the impact of Hurricane Harvey and Irma on the US economy receded, while geopolitical concerns surrounding the Korean Peninsula also diminished. Meanwhile, amid further strengthening of the labour market, confirmation of a strong performance of the US economy in 3Q17, and a potential boost related to the tax reform package currently discussed in US Congress, market expectations for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in the upcoming December meeting have increased considerably, giving further support to the US dollar.

 

In real terms, after accounting for inflation and currency fluctuations, the ORB increased to $36.36/b in October from $34.59/b (base June 2001=100) in the previous month. Over the same period, the US dollar increased by 1.0% against the import-weighted modified Geneva I + US dollar basket , while inflation declined by 0.1%.