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Price action trading


Guest oilfxpro

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Guest oilfxpro

Why do mentors teach price action, but they can't trade it themselves to make money?

 

If it worked they would be billionaires!

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/foyer/165180-compounding-billionaires-t2w.html

 

https://priceactionvolmanjames16.wordpress.com/those-who-can-do-those-who-can-t-teach/

 

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/al-brooks-al-crooks-charlatan.294067/page-6

 

Does George Sorros or Warren Buffet trade price action?Why are these gurus wasting other people's time, when this type of trading does not work?

 

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/do-trading-education-scammers-99-99-of-the-industry-ever-feel-guilty.312818/

 

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Guest oilfxpro

Thanks trend follower

 

The successful speculators that I have read about Soros  and Buffet .traded fundamentals.I have yet to read about successful wealthy price action traders, any names ?

 

When traders apply price action, they are betting they know what is going to happen next, Mark  Douglas philosophy' which I agree with, contradicts the price action trading beliefs.These are

 

 Trade free of expectations of being right or wrong.(price action trade requires trader to believe he is right  abou a trade).He is relying on reading price action

 

. Beleive in uncertanity (The market can do anything).Once you enter a price action trade , if you are wrong ,it is psychologically impossible to cut your losses.Why should you take a loss, if price action works

 

 

. Be careful what you project into the future because nothing has got the potential to create more misery and unhappiness than unfulfilled expectations.When price action breaks down, it is difficult to exit at a loss.

 

Sometimes price action works, in your case you use moving averages, moving averages are smoothed out price action, so  it could be you are trading  the price action of the moving averages and not price action candles.

 

If one understands trading psychology,  price action and human mindset are not compatible.It can only lead to high levels of stress. 

Trading price action candles arouses high levels of stress and emotions  along with a lot of psychological issues.This  is why places which market price  action education, don't have psychology sections..It makes it easier  to market the educational price action courses.

 

 

In the absence of evidence of successful price action traders, I have to assume there are no successful billionaires of price action trading .I am waiting for your evidence.

 

How do you know you have no cognitive biases in your beliefs about you trading raw price action and not moving average price action?

 

 

 

 

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Oilfxpro wrote,  

When traders apply price action, they are betting they know what is going to happen next, Mark  Douglas philosophy' which I agree with, contradicts the price action trading beliefs.These are

 

Everyone is betting on what is going to happen next. So what!

 

 Trade free of expectations of being right or wrong.(price action trade requires trader to believe he is right  abou a trade).He is relying on reading price action

 

If market shows you are wrong just get out!

 

. Beleive in uncertanity (The market can do anything).Once you enter a price action trade , if you are wrong ,it is psychologically impossible to cut your losses.Why should you take a loss, if price action works

 

If market shows you are wrong just get out!

 

 

Be careful what you project into the future because nothing has got the potential to create more misery and unhappiness than unfulfilled expectations.When price action breaks down, it is difficult to exit at a loss.

 

If market shows you are wrong just get out!

 

Sometimes price action works, in your case you use moving averages, moving averages are smoothed out price action, so  it could be you are trading  the price action of the moving averages and not price action candles.

 

Moving averages just show direction and momentum!

 

If one understands trading psychology,  price action and human mindset are not compatible.It can only lead to high levels of stress. 

Trading price action candles arouses high levels of stress and emotions  along with a lot of psychological issues.This  is why places which market price  action education, don't have psychology sections..It makes it easier  to market the educational price action courses.

 

Have faith in your (back tested) strategy, just pull the trigger and ask questions latter!

 

 

In the absence of evidence of successful price action traders, I have to assume there are no successful billionaires of price action trading .I am waiting for your evidence.

 

No one is obliged to provide you with anything, you would just say it was photo-shopped anyway! If it works it works.

 

How do you know you have no cognitive biases in your beliefs about you trading raw price action and not moving average price action?

 

Repeat, if it works it works!

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Guest oilfxpro

Everyone is betting on what is going to happen next. So what!

 

This is incorrect statement.There are probabilistic traders who don't trade on the outcome of the next trade.These traders trade probabilities like a casino, the casino does not know which punter is going win  next i.e what is going to happen next.

 

Developing a Probability Based Mindset for Trading

 

 

If market shows you are wrong just get out!

This is a lack of understanding of practical human behavior during trading.First the guru says "price action works , but if it does not work get out".So why should he believe it works, other than the charlatans who sold the books and courses, if it worked there would be a software , so everybody would use the software to place automated price action trades.In the meantime there is none and it does not work , until proven otherwise.

 

If you believe price action works, why take a loss ?It should work!

 

 

A  study by finance professors at Massey University in New Zealand examined more than 5,000 technical trading rules to see if they added value. The authors found "no evidence that the profits to the technical trading rules we consider are greater than those that might be expected due to random data variation."

 

Is Technical Analysis a Waste of Time?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-technical-analysis-a-waste-of-time/

 

If market shows you are wrong just get out!

 

 

 

Cutting losses does not work, when a trader is told that price action trades he put on work!

 

If market shows you are wrong just get out!

 

 

Moving averages just show direction and momentum!

 

So the moving averages are making profit not the price action!

 

 

 

Have faith in your (back tested) strategy, just pull the trigger and ask questions latter!

 

Use heads or tails coin toss instead of price action 

 

 

 

No one is obliged to provide you with anything, you would just say it was photo-shopped anyway! If it works it works.

 

The books written are evidence?The price action courses are evidence.The gurus not trading are evidence.People not using it to make money, but selling courses and books is evidence.

 

Price action is the holy grail , that is why you can get it all free by doing google searches and you tube videos.

If it was worth anything with an edge , most people would not bother selling it, they would be using it.

 

https://priceactionvolmanjames16.wordpress.com/

 

 

 

Repeat, if it works it works!

 

If it works you would not need to take losses and there would be a automated software for sale

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Correct, it is all about probabilities. Your tested strategy tells you what is the most probable next event and you back it, when the market tells you are wrong just get out, the market will always be bigger than you and the market does not have to act rationally. Trying to rationalise the market is psychologically damaging.

 

Many can't cope with being wrong as often as happens in trading. Most everyone have come from a career where they must be right to a very high percentage or they lose their job. Successful traders talk about being right 40 - 50% of the time, but with a risk reward ratio of 1:2 or more then that is profitable, that's how much you need to be right, which takes most people some time to get use to.

 

Price action reveals patterns that are often repeated. Thomas Bulkowski has published a mass of statistics to prove this point, the positive probabilities of a tested strategy (strike rate against risk reward ratio) is all there is. Psychology should not enter the equation  and some go to great lengths to negate it, even to the point of basing their whole strategy around avoiding it. 

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Guest oilfxpro

The secret to this success is strong risk management and discipline in following some strict rules. There is nothing clever, complex or special that I do.

 

The secret of successful traders is, they know their markets, risk management is their key skill, like casino which will not take on large bets eg you go and place £10m on a single bet

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey 

 

I don't recommend any normal human to agree with the following

 

Psychology should not enter the equation  and some go to great lengths to negate it, even to the point of basing their whole strategy around avoiding it. 

 

These are the sort of statements coming out of  the industry,  we are all humans and we are emotional beings.No  statements in words, from people in the industry,  will ever change our physiology.

 

Humans are emotional creatures

 

http://blog.davidlawrencepreston.co.uk/2016/08/humans-are-emotional-creatures/

 

https://forexfactory2017.wordpress.com/trading-psychology-videos/

 

 

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey

 

There is my new photo :smileyhappy:

 

No heart no emotions no psychology anymore

 

new picture.jpg

 

Psychology is 100% of trading success. This is because the human with a mind is going to execute the trades  and a trader’s brain command center makes all the trading decisions.The brain’s command center can shut down due to stress responses , in the middle of a trade. Emotions can override rational trading rules, systems and methods .

 

https://forexfactory2017.wordpress.com/stresss/

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,  yes, that is precisely my point with regards the win/lose strike rate verses the risk reward ratio. , a tested and trusted strategy removes the fear (psychology). The 'some' I was referring to in the last sentence of my previous post was you and your options strategy (that removes the psychology factor from trading as you have inferred in the past) but most don't need to go that far because they know 'psychology should not enter the equation'.

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey

 

a tested and trusted strategy removes the fear (psychology)

 

When markets change, the system does not perform, losses incur and other contrary events occur, the mind reverts to default programming.Default programming is ancestral programming.

 

 

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Yes, you are both right  & ,  you can choose a systematic approach as does OFP or a discretionary approach as does TF. It is wrong to suggest though that either approach must fail.

 

The problem with a systematic approach is that the system needs to be made flexible enough to cope with changing market conditions or to simply recognise change and stop trading till the market changes back, but then that becomes discretionary.

 

The problem with discretionary is the absolute requirement to precisely define risk before entering a trade and be willing to accept that risk and so remove fear. Fortunately the risk is easily defined, it is the stop loss amount on entry and during the trade and the stop level should be obvious on the chart in that if that level is breached you have been proved wrong in your assessment.

 

The market will do this regularly but that is not a problem if you have tested your strategy over many trades and know it to be profitable, this applies to both types of strategy. And you must do your own testing and not rely on others to do it for you as we can never all execute a strategy exactly the same. There is a degree of discretion in any system.

 

 

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Guest oilfxpro

Here is one to enjoy!!:smileylol:

 

Nial fuller is know as one of the Gurus of price action.He is now moving the the Warren Buffet buy the Dip strategy.

 

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/profitable-traders-nothing-99-percent-time

 

Profitable Traders Do Nothing 99% Of the Time

 

:smileylol:

 

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/price-action-trading-forex

 

Profitable Buffet trading strategy BUY THE DIP

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/Profitable-Buffet-trading-strategy-BUY-THE-DIP/m-p/16794#M797

 

I have nothing against people using this strategy, to sell education on this strategy and write books about it.I do not like people who waste other people's time and lives with snake oil.

 

amy.gif

 

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Price action trading and Buy The Failed Dip (BTFD) are not mutually exclusive. BTFD is the oldest and most used strategy since the creation of markets. BTFD is a trend following strategy.

 

Nial Fuller won a million dollar prize in a trading competition last year, that was completely open and transparent, using price action principles. I posted on it last year, you can read about it here;

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/Million-USD-Competition-Winner/m-p/5194#M403

 

 

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Good pick  I read about this guy many years ago - he used to work for Sabre Fund Management. He's the closest thing the UK has got to what you read about in the book "Market Wizzards". All his interviews make very good reading. If only the UK had more like him!!!!

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Agree, yes he did all those things and keeps pushing his work up another degree. He was just one of those geeks who was in the right place at the right time doing the right thing. There's not much he hasn't got covered, or, can't access.

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Guest oilfxpro

Casey

 

Nial Fuller won a million dollar prize in a trading competition last year, that was completely open and transparent, using price action principles. I posted on it last year, you can read about it here;

 

Where are the audited certified financial account to prove this ?Give me the excuses.

 

Who was part of this marketing trick, to dupe suckers into opening a live account with Axit?

 

Why it's about to get harder to post fake reviews online

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/31/get-harder-post-fake-online-reviews/

 

Did he place the trades after the event and place hindsight results?Were other competitors allowed to place results after the competition?

 

 

Anton Kreil Annihilates Retail Brokers and "Trading Educators"

How many other fake traders were involved in this competition?

 

If Neil Fuller could make 350% a year , he would not enter any such competition,  I would be surprised if he made 10%  or 30 pips.

 

This is how you catch the fake gurus

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/foyer/165180-compounding-billionaires-t2w.html#post2056584

 

Most FX traders cant even make 30pips a month (or year) let alone per day. 

But lets consider a profitable trader who makes a very modest 30pips a week:

 

When is I G introducing such competition?

 

The winning trader, Nial Fuller, who is a renowned trading author and professional trader, ended the competition with an impressive 369% return on investment and collects the first prize of a USD $1million trading account with AxiSelect.

 

Anton Kreil Annihilates Retail Brokers and "Trading Educators"

 

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You are a genius. Such a competition cannot be compared with lets say the brilliant poker competitions which end in Vegas !!!! Then again with a poker competition everybody draws their data from the same source. In trading financial commodities everybody gets their data from different sources and at different speeds. Not a level playing field like in a game of poker.

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Guest oilfxpro

121

 

Such a competition cannot be compared with lets say the brilliant poker competitions which end in Vegas !!!!

 

When you understand the human mind, behavioral science, neuroscience and psychology/physiology,  you will begin to see a new  poker game in vegas .You don't have to go to Vegas , Vegas comes to you in your own home.

 

So eventually trading becomes a Vegas poker game , if you don't learn trading psychology first.

 

The orignal members of forex factory had names like Vegas.

 

 

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=4113

 

Vegas Wealth Builder - Part I

https://forexfactory2017.wordpress.com/

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Guest oilfxpro

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/Profitable-Buffet-trading-strategy-BUY-THE-DIP/m-p/16794#M797

 

121

 

The only strategy that has worked consistently for last 40 years or more is "buy the dip"There are millions of investors in it, it still keeps working.I fink you missed the point!It will keep on working forever.

 

Another reason why forex factory does not have a psychology section, it does not fit in with the interests of the vendors  and brokers on it.They need to keep the blind  sheep on it .These blind sheep  keep clicking the ads on forex factory.

 

https://www.forexfactory.com/mediakit

 

https://forexfactory2017.wordpress.com/forexfactory-hiding-trading-psychology-why-is-there-no-psychology-section/

 

Clipboard01.jpg

 

warren.gif

 

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Guest oilfxpro

I trade very little price action and charts.

 

Price action reveals patterns that are often repeated. Thomas Bulkowski has published a mass of statistics to prove this point, the positive probabilities of a tested strategy (strike rate against risk reward ratio) is all there is.

 

The real evidence I get is on my charts , Some of these chart patterns are no good.

 

The only thing that works is supports , trend lines and channels.Clipboard01.jpg

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