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10/06/21 10:53
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German disinflation persists; US Q3 GDP revised up, overshadowing CPI, as eyes turn to EU inflation. Source: Bloomberg Euro Shares Inflation European Union United States United States dollar Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 30 November 2023 06:10 Inflation in Germany dropped to 3.2% compared to November 2022; and represented a further decline from October’s 3.8% year-on-year print. More notably, the month-on-month decline was 0.4% and sharper than the 0.2% estimate. Economic calendar Source: DailyFX Anticipation surrounds the EU's impending inflation data – due tomorrow - and its expected to show further declines in both headline and core measures. The ongoing inflation descent has led markets to factor in 2024 rate cuts, mirroring the pace expected from the Fed—amounting to just over 100 bps. Yet, the EU's economic resilience, lagging behind the US, raises concerns of steeper inflation drops. Declining activity may exacerbate economic challenges, posing a potential threat to the Euro." The inflation print was soon upstaged by the upward revision to US GDP growth, relating to the third quarter, resulting in an intra-day move lower on the five-minute time frame. EUR/USD five-min chart Source: TradingView The daily EUR/USD chart sees the pair pulling back today, after hawkish comments from Fed Board Member Waller, anticipated the first rate cut in the US taking place in three-five months. The dollar sold off notably thereafter. US PCE data tomorrow can further influence the direction of the pair tomorrow, as well as Powell's potential push back to Wallers rate cut comments. EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. -
Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 look for further gains Indices remain in strong form on the final day of November, and are looking to extend their recent gains into December. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 November 2023 11:51 Dow on the up once more The rally has recovered this week, cancelling out expectations of at least a short-term pullback. The July highs at 35,690 are now just a short distance away, and a move back here would mark the recovery of all the summer and early Autumn losses. Above this the next target is 35,860, and then on to the record high at 36,954. Once more any hope of a pullback has been dashed, with little sign at present in price action that one is at hand. It would need a close back below 35,300 to suggest that one may be close. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 holds around 16,000 The price is consolidating around the 16,000 level, having surpassed the July high in mid-November. For a short-term bearish view, the price would need to reverse course and head back below 15,760. This might then see a reversal towards the October highs at 15,330. Having cleared 16,000, the index’s next hurdle to the upside would be 16,630, the record highs from 2021. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 rallies off support After dropping back towards 33,000, the index has moved higher, holding support for the time being. Renewed gains above last week’s high (33,800) once more leave the index on course to hit the June high at 34,000. Beyond this lies the 1989 high at 38,957. Sellers would need a renewed close below 33,120 to suggest a new attempt to push lower is underway. Source: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil rises ahead of OPEC+ meeting but gold, silver stall Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and silver amid a depreciating US dollar and global falling yields. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 November 2023 11:41 Brent crude oil price rises to two-week high ahead of OPEC+ meeting The front month Brent crude oil futures contract has risen to a two-week high, between the October low and mid-November high at 83.12 to 83.79, ahead of today’s postponed OPEC+ meeting at which further output cuts may be on the table. A rise above this resistance area would confirm a medium-term bottoming formation and would put the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 86.60 on the map. Potential slips may find support along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 82.08 and around the 81.68 late August low. Source: ProRealTime Gold consolidates around the $2,050 level Gold’s advance from its $1,932 per troy ounce low on a weaker US dollar and rapidly falling US Treasury yields has so far taken it to $2,052. Once bettered, the August 2020, March 2022 and May 2023 highs at $2,070 to $2,082 will be in focus. This resistance zone is expected to cap, at least for a few days. Good support remains to be seen between the October and last week’s highs at $2,009 to $2,007. Source: ProRealTime Silver trades near its three-month high Spot silver reached its July peak at $25.26 before being capped by it on Wednesday. A rise above this level would take the precious metal to levels last traded in May and lead to the April and May highs at $26.09 to $26.13 being in focus. Minor support can be seen around the $25.01 late August high with more significant support coming in between the late April low and early June high at $24.52 to $24.50. Source: ProRealTime
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