Jump to content

SP500 creaking?


Mercury

Recommended Posts

SP500 has just broken my lower tramline with strong Neg Mom Div and a completed A-B-C count.  The Top (yesterday) fell just short of the 76% Fib.  In my view we will either get a significant drop in a Wb then back to Wc OR a more shallow W1 (1-5 count) then W2 retrace before the Big Short!  Of course the all time high scenario can't yet be rules out but I am short at 2049 and will move stops to BE as soon as possible.  FWIT, the Russell2000 hit the Fib 62% exactly.  this market has been leading of late and is a decent predictor of where the larget cap markets wind up.  Pity the min position (£50) is too large to trade it regularly.

 

Here is the chart:



Link to comment

Hi I think this rally is finally running out of steam, with April rate talk and oil stock pile being noticed again I think if we don't see any decent gains over the next couple session then downward pressure will grow stronger and a move back to 2000 will be tested.

Link to comment

Agreed, has hit 76% Fib and bounced off today.  Could still get a further rally yet but I think the likelihood is for a significant drop from here for a while (Non Farms on Friday may have a say, at least temporarily...)

 

I'm short at the 62% fib on the way down today (2043) with a stop just above the 76%.

 

BTW, this is also posted on the US markets thread.

 

Here is the chart:



Link to comment

I'm hoping for a rally to test 2080 and then a drop.  Positioned today for that scenario. If it goes South straight from here after events this coming week I'm fine with that too.  The only thing that doesn't work is a flatline from here to June, but I just can't see that happening. C

Link to comment

That would be some rocket rally if it goes all the way to the 88% Fib without a significant pullback.  I'd have to put that in the unlikely category but who knows in this market.  What do you mean by flatline?  Crabbing sideways in a trading range?

Link to comment

haha, yes it would be a rocket rally and I'm not expecting it'll go as 2080 but some bounce north along with your scenario will work for me inside 7 weeks.........  re Flatline yes just going horizontal more or less for 7-12 weeks (i.e. no pulse like a heart rate monitor)

Link to comment

I seriously doubt a flatline, not really on any scenario I have,  Might get that at a EW3-4 (complex) but that is not where we are.  No I think we have indeed seen a turn and for a while at least the Bear is back.  Question remains, is this the beginning of the end of the post credit crunch rally of just another pretender.  Time will tell but for now I think we should see, at a minimum, a decent pull back.

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      16,008
    • Total Posts
      76,721
    • Total Members
      63,933
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Pranay
    Joined 19/09/21 01:18
  • Posts

    • @Caseynotesthanks for the reply. How do I know if I am trading at DMA platform or any other.       
    • Hi, all brokers are market makers to some extent. If you are trading on the Direct Market Access (DMA) platform then you are dealing on the exchange through IG but if using any other platform then IG looks to match those trades inhouse matching shorts to longs. Any excess they hedge on the exchange themselves.  So IG aren't taking the other side of your trade, they are covered whether you win or lose and they make on the spread from both parties. If they need to hedge they still win because they get a better spread than what they pass on to you.  
    • Err, I've had all my real vaccines, the ones that completed safety trials, have also had special vaxxes when had to present proof when travelling to a country were there were dangerous diseases present, no problem. But experimental gene therapy that has no medium or long term risk data for a disease that, according to the FDA, has just a 1 in 250,000 risk, and needing to present proof to go to a restaurant or club in my home town - no, this is not about a virus.   Note that the FDA officials that the Biden admin pressured into giving early FDA approval for these vaxxes both resigned. FDA panel just voted 16-3 AGAINST approving the boosters This slide was shown at their meeting.  
×
×
  • Create New...