SP500 creaking?

[Mercury]

SP500 has just broken my lower tramline with strong Neg Mom Div and a completed A-B-C count.  The Top (yesterday) fell just short of the 76% Fib.  In my view we will either get a significant drop in a Wb then back to Wc OR a more shallow W1 (1-5 count) then W2 retrace before the Big Short!  Of course the all time high scenario can't yet be rules out but I am short at 2049 and will move stops to BE as soon as possible.  FWIT, the Russell2000 hit the Fib 62% exactly.  this market has been leading of late and is a decent predictor of where the larget cap markets wind up.  Pity the min position (£50) is too large to trade it regularly.

 

Here is the chart:



[Guest Rich88]

Hi I think this rally is finally running out of steam, with April rate talk and oil stock pile being noticed again I think if we don't see any decent gains over the next couple session then downward pressure will grow stronger and a move back to 2000 will be tested.

[Guest Rich88]

S&P 500 seems to have stalled along with the oil rally. the areas of resistance to watch out for are 2036, 2039, 2044 . The key zones being 2044 and 2056



 

[Mercury]

Agreed, has hit 76% Fib and bounced off today.  Could still get a further rally yet but I think the likelihood is for a significant drop from here for a while (Non Farms on Friday may have a say, at least temporarily...)

 

I'm short at the 62% fib on the way down today (2043) with a stop just above the 76%.

 

BTW, this is also posted on the US markets thread.

 

Here is the chart:



[Guest Condor]

I'm hoping for a rally to test 2080 and then a drop.  Positioned today for that scenario. If it goes South straight from here after events this coming week I'm fine with that too.  The only thing that doesn't work is a flatline from here to June, but I just can't see that happening. C

[Mercury]

That would be some rocket rally if it goes all the way to the 88% Fib without a significant pullback.  I'd have to put that in the unlikely category but who knows in this market.  What do you mean by flatline?  Crabbing sideways in a trading range?

[Guest Rich88]

Dow: Pull back from 17550? Strong resistance at 17620

[Guest Condor]

haha, yes it would be a rocket rally and I'm not expecting it'll go as 2080 but some bounce north along with your scenario will work for me inside 7 weeks.........  re Flatline yes just going horizontal more or less for 7-12 weeks (i.e. no pulse like a heart rate monitor)

[Mercury]

Dow hit just under the 88% Fib (17624) on the recent High/Low, which is consistent with recent past bearish moves on the Dow.  I think we have just seen the conclusion of a EW1-2 and now should get a significant move down is right.

[Mercury]

I seriously doubt a flatline, not really on any scenario I have,  Might get that at a EW3-4 (complex) but that is not where we are.  No I think we have indeed seen a turn and for a while at least the Bear is back.  Question remains, is this the beginning of the end of the post credit crunch rally of just another pretender.  Time will tell but for now I think we should see, at a minimum, a decent pull back.