Jump to content

SP500 creaking?


Mercury

Recommended Posts

SP500 has just broken my lower tramline with strong Neg Mom Div and a completed A-B-C count.  The Top (yesterday) fell just short of the 76% Fib.  In my view we will either get a significant drop in a Wb then back to Wc OR a more shallow W1 (1-5 count) then W2 retrace before the Big Short!  Of course the all time high scenario can't yet be rules out but I am short at 2049 and will move stops to BE as soon as possible.  FWIT, the Russell2000 hit the Fib 62% exactly.  this market has been leading of late and is a decent predictor of where the larget cap markets wind up.  Pity the min position (£50) is too large to trade it regularly.

 

Here is the chart:



Link to comment
Guest Rich88

Hi I think this rally is finally running out of steam, with April rate talk and oil stock pile being noticed again I think if we don't see any decent gains over the next couple session then downward pressure will grow stronger and a move back to 2000 will be tested.

Link to comment
Guest Rich88

S&P 500 seems to have stalled along with the oil rally. the areas of resistance to watch out for are 2036, 2039, 2044 . The key zones being 2044 and 2056



 

Link to comment

Agreed, has hit 76% Fib and bounced off today.  Could still get a further rally yet but I think the likelihood is for a significant drop from here for a while (Non Farms on Friday may have a say, at least temporarily...)

 

I'm short at the 62% fib on the way down today (2043) with a stop just above the 76%.

 

BTW, this is also posted on the US markets thread.

 

Here is the chart:



Link to comment
Guest Condor

I'm hoping for a rally to test 2080 and then a drop.  Positioned today for that scenario. If it goes South straight from here after events this coming week I'm fine with that too.  The only thing that doesn't work is a flatline from here to June, but I just can't see that happening. C

Link to comment

That would be some rocket rally if it goes all the way to the 88% Fib without a significant pullback.  I'd have to put that in the unlikely category but who knows in this market.  What do you mean by flatline?  Crabbing sideways in a trading range?

Link to comment
Guest Condor

haha, yes it would be a rocket rally and I'm not expecting it'll go as 2080 but some bounce north along with your scenario will work for me inside 7 weeks.........  re Flatline yes just going horizontal more or less for 7-12 weeks (i.e. no pulse like a heart rate monitor)

Link to comment

I seriously doubt a flatline, not really on any scenario I have,  Might get that at a EW3-4 (complex) but that is not where we are.  No I think we have indeed seen a turn and for a while at least the Bear is back.  Question remains, is this the beginning of the end of the post credit crunch rally of just another pretender.  Time will tell but for now I think we should see, at a minimum, a decent pull back.

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      23,664
    • Total Posts
      97,148
    • Total Members
      44,216
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    redarimkute
    Joined 08/12/23 13:00
  • Posts

    • Insightful write up. Personally, I use top down analysis to mark my pivot points and i prefer to call them zones. As seen from my ETH chart below, i have been swinging the bullish ride with my top down analysis. 
    • One exchange that checks the box interms of my own requirement is bitgetglobal. The exchange is reputable for been compliant with regulations globally, its copy trading is the largest with over 100k elite traders and 540k followers, its trading fees is amongst the lowest in the industry. The one area i feel they need to improve on is their P2P. This area is lagging compared to that of Binance and Bybit.
    • Here's the next set of TIME CYCLES - I've had these dates on my charts since 2015 ish Please note this is just to show you that the markets are not random and we can TIME them - the AIM of this thread is to SHOW you that dates calculated years in advance can be significant These Time Cycles are not all of them, just the ones I wanted to show you, which are the INTERNAL cycles of a bigger Time Cycle - some will hit and some won't - REMEMBER, lots of active cycles are ALL operating at the same time Notice that there's not a TC for the 2022 high - the reason is that there was one, it's just not part of this series of TC's I'm showing you - Then when we look backwards in 2034, you'll be able to see market price action around the dates and you will KNOW these are not random dates thrown on a chart in the hope of hitting - because If you are ignore the latter dates (not yet shown) in the cycle, then you will come a cropper and when Investments are concerned that will mean LOSING lots of your money I'm still using the screenshot taken in Oct 2020 - Once we complete 2025, I'll update the chart with price data and take a screen shot from then on for the next cycles The THICK BLACK line is the mid-point of the cycle, which in the grand scheme of things "should / is expected to be" a significant LOW point when viewed back in time from 2034! - It WILL NOT be a major low, so don't expect a humungous price crash to it, it will NOT be how you are imagining it in your head right now Notice that most of those cycles are "LINKED" that's because they are the same cycle which repeats THT
×
×
  • Create New...
us