Jump to content

Cable conundrum

Recommended Posts

While the stock indices and Oil are sorting themselves out I was looking at GBPUSD cross and have come to an impasse.  Overall my assessment is that the market is in retrace prior to a final leg down, maybe as far as past lows (13455ish).  But where are we now and what will happen next?


On the one hand the retrace could have concluded on 18 March and be in the final run down with a W1-2 about to conclude.  On the other the current move could be an A-B (concluded) and just moved in to a Wc up.  The Daily chart seems to indicate the latter with Stochastic supporting a Wb conclusion with a nice "Junction" at 14690ish.  I call a confluence of 2 or more resistance lines a junction (there are 3 here).


On the hourly it is looking like a short term fall is happening, maybe a W1 of Wc up (we should now get a drop back to a suitable Fib retrace before the main surge up if true).


Anyone got a view on where Cable will go short term and longer term?


Here are my charts:

Link to post
  • Replies 117
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Was also keeping a very close eye on this, but now yellen speech is over, 61% retracement has just been passed, it did appear that this could have been a good short opportunity, never mind, be interesting to see if this surpases 145 area again. 

Link to post

Is Cable forming a nice A-B-C retrace to a W4 of Wc?  I have a short term swing Short att 14450, looking to exit at the Fib 50% ish and reverse but what I really want is the end of the larger A-B-C as the final leg down could go all the way to 13500ish.


Similarly, if the Euro is about to turn down and the GBP will come on strong again then EURGBP could be worth a Short (if it doesn't make a higher high that is...


hourly chart:

Link to post

Cable threw a not unusual tantrum on the short term charts this afternoon (50 ema horizontal while price leaped up and down 50 pip all afternoon), will probably sulk now till NFP. Lots of commentators saying expecting decreased volitility all round on NFP release due to ever decreasing expectation of a US rate hike anytime soon (no matter what NFP figure). 

Link to post

GBP is weak against USD, EUR and AUD.  So surely can't just be about NFP and US rate rises?  Backdrop of Brexit and trade deficit may be bigger long term factors?  I have heard some people talking about GBPUSD parity recently (quotes like a return to "bad 'ol 1984 days").  My thinking is it will surely go down but I'm not sure how far yet.  Also not sure if now is the time for a turn but it sure looks like it.  I was thinking to I'd cash my cheeky short from 14450 level on Wednesday but now considering just holding it stop protected until NFP is done with.  Even if I get stopped out there will always be another opportunity and soon.

Link to post

PS: EURGBP just made a higher high so I'm thinking that will continue up for a bit to a decent resistance area before concluding the rally.  GBPAUD is heading for lower lows, unless it turns at the current 88% Fib level, not a high likelihood in my view.


For a while at least it looks like GBP is heading down across the board.

Link to post

For me the picture on Cable is unclear.  This is not surprising as it appears to be in a Wave 4 Triangle (big picture), which typically exhibits a lot of whipsaw action and that is certainly what we are getting with this one.  Very hard to trade so I have been looking for better markets.


That said, I do feel we may be coming to an end of this action and some clarification may emerge soon.  For now it could go either way but if I had to make a prediction I'd say we probably get a higher high to complete a 1-5 up in Wave C to complete W2 and then a drop to the bottom.  Can't rule out that we have already had the W2 and am short at the last turn SP at B/B.


Let's see...




Link to post

BTW, forgot to mention, though I'm sure it's obvious to you guys, if the price breaks the 76% Fib (yellow line on my Hourly) and plummets on down to break thee previous low at 14055 (24 Mar) then scenario 2 is in play and we have seen the W4 turn and are on the way down.  This is why I took a Short at the last top.

Link to post

I'm almost certain GBPUSD is on a drop to the long term bottom now, why?  Well the market dropped hard through the 76% Fib and closed below it on he hourly chart.  For EW aficionados this means the green labels 1-2-3-4 on my previously posted chart cannot be right because W4 cannot exceed W1 terminus.  Therefore the most likely scenario is an A-B-C completion to a W2 (green label) of W3 down.  I still won't be 100% on this scenario until we get a close below 14055 but it is looking more and more likely.


Updated hourly chart:

Link to post

Cable conundrum has been resolved for me with a break of resistance line at 14050, which is also a new lower low.  I do except a retrace rally at some point but I am now convinced the GBP is on the way down to the bottom of the market now.


Will be interesting to see how long EUR can resist and how fast it will go when it turns...



Link to post

Yeah, it's a 50/50 for me at this point because a retrace could easily happen but that would also be a good chance to sell the rally.  Also I have the Euro rallying (could also drop of course) and the EURGBP nearly hitting a turning point so it those are right then the GBP must rally.  Waiting this one out for now.

Link to post

"Betty Grable"! like it!


I had thought we could get a strong retrace on this one, also similar on EURUSD.  I am not sure if it is finished either but, as you intimate, if price breaks 14050 (and recent lows) again then a bigger drop is on the cards.


For now I think we could get a classic A-B-C but with the C not going that much higher than the recent highs.  Eur will probably go higher in this scenario and give us that hit at 8130 on EURGBP.


Best to wait and see which happens in my view and then act accordingly.  I am only interested in shorting all these markets.



Link to post

LOL!  Of course.  Wouldn't dream of telling you want to do, just saying what I plan to do and why and then seeing if people agree or disagree.  Clearly I am targeting pivotal moments (like this mornings move on the FTSE) to take positions that will be held for days or weeks rather than intraday but I guess we'd all like to have a view on where the market is heading regardless of method of trading no?

Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      14/01/21 09:51

    Newest Member
    Joined 27/02/21 14:51
  • Posts

    • The one thing with the markets is although you can predict WHEN, you can't predict with consistent accuracy the PRICE LEVEL they will rise or fall to As is proven in the post above WELL before the time and INADVANCE  I'll do a more complete and fuller review following the next TC date of 4th June 2021 Reaction to the 4th June Date? This TC (Please note TC's of the SAME colour are linked - Different coloured TC's are well as the name suggests - different TC and different degrees) in the past has been very hit and miss, it should cause a reaction but how much and to what degree I can't say The chart below is of the Nasdaq100 Index So far the TC's have a 100% hit rate  - I don't want to publish next years chart before 4th June TC has been and gone, as it will mess up the sequence of the thread - to prove that there is no fudging the dates - the 1 and only TC for 2022 is due on and around 4th April (you can compare the dates shown when I publish that chart after June this year to prove no foul play) Kudos to WD GANN and BFC for their works on Time and Time Cycles Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible  for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only
    • The PSY OPS looks like being ratcheted up a gear as the clowns prep to hit you with the impossible 'ZERO COVID' goal as the next instalment to keep this sh!tshow on the road. Remember scientists are just as easily bought off as politicians these days. Leaked emails from Zero-Covid advocacy group ISAG.  
    • most people are fully aware that the system is against them any greed motivated bussiness has only its own self interest in mind .... they get away with it because no one stands up to them .... the appropriate channels are all biased to the money maker ,,,, there is now another route for ya plain old guy on the street,,,, social media is a powerfull tool ...... the fca and all the other **** pot organisations only pull there pants down for big companies ...ig cant do what they like when they like that bad bussiness 
  • Create New...