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the low down on the whole market


Guest fibking

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Guest fibking

for those confused or lost or for those looking at the market all wrong here is whats going on.the eur/usd move back in march said it all draghi came out and said that there would be no more interest rate cuts after expanding qe and this created a whipsaw for eur/usd to the upside.then the japanese go neg rates and the yen rallied!why?because this was a big poke in the eye of the fed.the fed could not then raise rates and yellen was forced to go super dovish.with todays non event by draghi it now allows yellen to raise.with the dollar having fallen so much the damage will be limited.the central banks are just taking it in turns to try to supress the usd from going to high because the whole world has large usd denomated debt and if the usd goes to high whole countries will be in trouble.the dow is rising because of international money flows moving into blue chip stocks hiding from the bond market which is about to blow up as the market makes yellen raise rates she does not want to but the market will make her.strong data is now her enemy and the data will only get stronger compared to an exploding europe.the usd is ready to roar and when it does watch out.you wanna bet agaibst a five year uptrend and a country which is raising rates while the rest try to ease then dive in with the current crowd. buy gold sell dollar and lose your shirt.the crowd is always wrong look left in your charts people fight the trend at your own risk

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Like the thinking and thanks for sharing.  I am with you on the USD, another interest date rise is inevitable, although the reasons vary depending on whom you are speaking with.  I don't buy collusion between CBs against the Fed in a tag team sort of way, these guys are only interested in keeping their jobs and that means pleasing their political task masters and that means acting parochially.  Draghi didn't do anything because he couldn't or the Germans would have him fired!  It's the same for Carney and all of them really.  My reading is another leg up in the trend for the USD but watch out!  "The trend is your friend, til the bend in the end!"

 

On Gold I'm not convinced.  Time will tell but if the stock markets get the jitters gold will be a source of safety for many.  A drop is likely just now in my view and then we will see what else is happening in the world that might impact Gold, it's not just a simple matter of interest rates with the yellow metal. 

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Guest fibking

gold has nothing to do with interest rates nor inflation.gold rises and falls with confidence in government period.i watch cnbc a lot for one reason to see the lies they are an excellent source for finding bottoms and tops.you don't here about gold until its up 20% then its all hey look at gold folks its breaking out.when oil was down in the 20's you get the extreme $10 calls etc they are bullish the dow when its falling and then suddenly turn bearish as it turns.right now its all about how the banks are a buy espically goldman sachs just watch goldman you'll see what i mean.and  look at the chart of gold that is one beautiful head and shoulders pattern.governments are broke and selling their gold canada now has none.gold will bottom first quater next year until then its gonna test $900 the crowd is wrong and the goldbugs are about to get a hard punch in the nose.their metal will be tested pun intended

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Well yes at it's most extremes it is about faith in government (well security really) but on a more tangible level Gold responds to confidence in the financial markets (i.e. are my investments safe?).  When people are worried about the stock market crashing they look to the safety of Bonds but when Bonds/gilts are also not seen as safe (and debt was the big issue in the last 2 Bear markets) then gold is the final source of solace.  The problem is that Gold is not exactly cheap right now!

 

I agree with your views on the media, not just CNBC of course but all mainstream media, they only report stories that have already happened...  I agree the Head & Shoulders on Gold and am tracking it but need to see a neckline break and retest before I consider to valid.  An alternative is the complex wave 4 that results in another rally leg to conclude the overall move.

 

If the current Triangle (of which the potential neckline is the lower line) is broken then we will probably head down to the next support line (a weekly chart line) at about 1190 and get a rally off this, which could turn out to be the start of a final wave up to about 1400 OR could rebound back off the neck line and descend as you are suggesting.  Commitment of Trader data suggests that hedgies are heavily Long (they like a good trend they do...!).  When I see that I tend to start thinking contrarian thoughts but right now I'm conflicted. 

 

All I'm saying is that neither scenario is stand out just yet.  On this I'll trade what I see as it develops (currently no trade for me right now, the Draghi spike took care of any cheeky Short idea I was entertaining...).

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