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THE GREAT BEAR IS UPON US

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Here it is: my 2 bit on the great question? when will this bull market end?? DOW WILL TOP OUT AROUND 27830, NASDAQ COMP AROUND 8260 before the end of the year . That will be the top for a long long time- 20 years. funds will flow to china and the great transition of economic might will begin its final stages with chinese equity market in a secular bull phase 

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Hi @jay, welcome to the Bear club.  I'm interested in how you come to your termination levels (not a challenge, just curious to compare vs mine).

I agree overall except I don't see a move to China, understand the logic but this will be a global phenomena in my view, no one will escape this time.  The safe havens will be precious metals and USD (sorry crypto guys, it just wont happen for this new tech solution yet...)

Got a view on when?

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hi mercury. I've been studying GANN for 20 years and along with various flavours of fundamental and technical analysis, this i see as a high probability event. Afcourse we're talking probabilities and not crystal ****

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My best guess would be by end of october.. Psychology of black monday as a trigger.. market breadth is still good however.. market normally requires a longer period of detoriation

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Thanks @jay, not familiar with Gann myself but my analysis suggest the following:

  1. Dow tops out around 28,000
  2. Nasdaq somewhere between 8000-8200 (spike likely)
  3. FTSE circa 8000
  4. SP500 between 2950-3000 (upper end likely)
  5. Timeline end Oct to mid Nov (ideal point shortly after US NFP in first week of Nov but could run another month 

Let's see...

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    • Interesting conversation about HOW IG operate. I have to agree with Larry trading here. IG always say they do not take the other side of the bet. BUT the fact is when you trade with them you are absolutely not in the real market, your money stays with 'Bank of IG' - so far as I am concerned if you lose they win and vice-versa. As Larry said you are placing a trade or a bet against the data feed that IG supply - that's it. There is no one on 'the other side' of your trade. The only time IG put it out to the real market is if their risk model requires that, i.e. everyone is taking one side, short or long. Again as Larry states we are NOT in the 'real market' we do not provide liquidity ! WHY should IG care about matching another client to the 'other side' of your retail trade ? They KNOW all retail traders lose anyway. If I place a 'long' trade on the DAX and lose when spread-betting, where is that loss going, WHERE EXACTLY ? It goes to IG, are you (Caseynotes) saying it goes to the other IG client taking an opposing trade, i.e. someone that went 'short' ? Bearing in mind 80% of retail traders at IG lose WHERE are all those losses going ? ANSWER: TO BANK OF IG.  CaseyNotes says ' IG matches buyers to sellers' that's a nice 'theory' ...again all the money stays with IG as we, the spread bettors, are NOT in any real market at all. You mention CFD's above and how they correlate with SB but again CFDs are not the real market they (brokers) just copy (via data-feed) the cash and futures market. As you correctly say CFDs are taxable for the rest of Europe to trade with.  I have not got a problem - like LarryBoy - about how IG operate, but as far as I am concerned Larry is right, all the trades when SB'ing stay with IG ONLY inc. all the trades / bets placed and monies stay with them. If you loose they win. End of. You can call that 'taking the other side of your trade' ... I personally do not, as it kind of implies that they are 'cheating' their Clients which they are not. Again they do not need to: ALL retail traders lose (80 - 90%).   
    • Hi there To close this off I was advised the Red Cross doesn’t necessarily mean anything.? For me it appeared at the end of every day alongside the company name, when the markets closed but became a green dot when the markets were open. As long as the Red Cross isn’t there on open market time it’s nothing to worry about. Still don’t understand why it’s there at all so maybe it’s not a good sign but IG feel it’s nothing I need to concern myself with. cheers.    
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