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Alert conditions upgrade needed


Guest Volcano

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Guest Volcano

Hellloooo IG ....Earth to Mars ... are you receiving?   The following conditions are badly needed on the conditions list for "alerts" - Open, high, low ,close. Can you please add them

cheers

v

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    • Gold and silver reverse lower as US non-farm payrolls finally move the dial on hawkish FOMC comments Source: Bloomberg   Commodities Gold Silver Quantitative easing Precious metal Inflation  Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 03 February 2023  Markets finally believe hawkish Fed tone after bumper payrolls release What a week this has been, with central banks taking turns to warn that they could yet push rates further in a bid to combat inflationary forces. Whilst that appeared to initially fall of deaf ears, todays whopping non-farm payrolls beat brought about a realization that the economy appears to be resilient enough to withstand anything the Fed throws at it. The outperformance across the services sector highlighted by the ISM services PMI plays a key role in today’s payrolls figure, with the sector largely providing the bulk of any major NFP move since the pandemic began. With high-paying tech jobs being lost, the services sector has nonetheless managed to surge amid a dramatic rise in new orders. Without any notable economic collapse, there is little pressure on the Fed to deviate away from their primary goal of bringing inflation back down to target. With that in mind, it comes as no surprise to see the dollar gaining ground to reflect the shift in outlook. The chart below highlights how the US rates remains remain well above those in Europe, with the latest dour UK growth forecasts signalling that we could yet see the BoE shift towards a more dovish position ahead of the Fed if disinflation takes hold. Gold and silver coming under pressure The impact of today’s release has been a sharp push higher for the dollar, although those gains have eased a little after the initial pop. However, it is worthwhile noting that the likes of gold and silver continue to come under pressure since this report. A clear pathway towards monetary easing would bring about strength for gold, but that has been stifled today. As such, the breakdown today could bring a period of weakness to unravel much of the strength seen over recent months. Looking at the dollar relationship to gold, we can see that a weaker dollar should be supportive for precious metals. That has been evident of late but highlights the risk of a reversal if the dollar continues to strengthen from here. Rate cuts will ultimately benefit precious metals The timing of that interest cut will also be key, with historical trends showing that gold and precious metals really get going at times of monetary loosening. With markets largely expecting that loosening phase down the line, there is no surprise to see markets front-run that move somewhat. The question here is the degree to which markets will buy the dollar and sell gold on the prospect of a slightly longer tightening phase. Precious metals are extremely attractive over the longer-term, but today’s decline points towards a potential retracement phase coming into play after recent gains. The gold chart highlights how price has slumped through $1896 support, bringing the bullish trend of higher highs and lows to a close. With price subsequently back at the next swing-low of $1868, the ability to break below this point will provide us with information over what comes next. Nonetheless, with the recent uptrend over, it looks likely that we will see a period of downside to take the heat out of this market. Source: ProRealTime The silver chart looks particularly interesting from the daily timeframe. The descending trendline and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance zone appears to have drawn a line under this bull-market, with the break below $22.76 signalling the likely beginning of a bearish phase. Quite whether this represents a retracement of the recent leg higher from $20.58 or a wider selloff remains to be seen. Nonetheless, today appears to have brought the bears back into play once again for silver. Source: ProRealTime
    • The Reserve Bank Board of Australia is scheduled to meet on Tuesday, February 7th at 2.30 pm AEST; a hotter-than-expected Q4 CPI print has likely locked in a 25bp rate hike and skews the risks towards a larger increase.   Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares Inflation ASX S&P/ASX 200 CFD  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 06 February 2023  The backdrop The RBA commenced the current rate hiking cycle in May last year to contain rising inflation and to cool a very tight labour market. Since then, it has delivered a cumulative 325 basis points of rate hikes, including four consecutive 50bp rate rises between July and September.   What is "expected?" In October, the RBA slowed the pace of its rate hiking cycle and delivered three consecutive 25bp rate hikes into the end of last year. Before last week's hot CPI print, the market was divided as to whether the RBA would raise rates by 25bp in February to a ten-year high of 3.35% or keep rates on hold. Following a higher-than-expected inflation print last week that saw the annual rate of headline inflation accelerate to 7.8% from 7.3% and core inflation to 6.9% from 6.1%, the market is now almost entirely priced for a 25bp hike, with the door open for a larger 40bp or 50bp rate hike.   Source: ASX The RBA will be reluctant to re-accelerate the pace of rate hikes at this point in the cycle, with the full impact of past rate hikes still to be felt. However, the sharp and broad-based rise in Australian inflation will have unsettled the Board. More so at a time when the RBA's central bank peers are being rewarded for their earlier and aggressive efforts in cooling inflation and are now moving confidently towards a highly desirable "pause" in their own rate hiking cycles.   The most likely outcome on Tuesday is that the RBA acknowledges it discussed a 50bp rate hike but delivers a 25bp rate. It will likely note that it "expects to increase interest rates further in the period ahead" alluding to another 25bp rate hike in March which would take the cash rate to 3.60%. Whether the RBA will stop at 3.60% or continues to hike until after it sees the Q1 2023 inflation numbers (released at the end of April) will depend on further evidence emerging of cooling in the labour market and household spending. How will the ASX 200 react? The delivery of a hawkish 25bp rate hike by the RBA, will weigh on the ASX 200 but not to the same degree as a larger 40bp or 50bp rise, which could trigger a fall in the order of 1.5%-2%. After a strong start to the year, the ASX 200 has underperformed in recent sessions as investors switch to global stock markets with a higher percentage of growth stocks than the value-laden ASX 200. Growth stocks are better positioned to benefit from an imminent Fed pause. Technically the ASX 200 is in overbought territory. There is a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low for the Elliott Wave followers, which warns of a possible pullback. We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area. ASX 200 daily chart   Source: TradingView The figures stated are as of February 3rd, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.
    • FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 tiptoe lower following strong US jobs report Indices have pushed slightly lower in early trading, following the strong jobs report on Friday in the US, which smashed expectations. Source: Bloomberg      Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 February 2023  FTSE 100 sheds ground after hitting record high Friday’s move saw the index breeze to a new record high, clambering back above 7900. This move higher has solidified the uptrend, although buyers should still note the yawning gap with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Nonetheless, the buyers appear firmly in charge with plenty of empty space above the index for the time being. In the short-term, a reversal could see the 7700 area tested again, where buyers appeared in the second half of January. Below this the 50-day SMA would be the next area to await support. Source: ProRealTime DAX edges lower The index continues to make good progress in its recovery of last year’s losses, pushing to 15,500 last week. The 15,500 area is one to watch, since it provided resistance in the early part of 2022 as the index attempted to rebound from January’s losses. Above this, 15,725 and then 16,200 come into view as upside targets. Sellers have ceded control here for the time being, and it would need a move back below 15,000 to indicate that a deeper retracement was in play. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 drops back US markets could not sustain their exuberant mid-week gains following a blowout non-farm payrolls reading. While the index has clocked up a new higher high in its uptrend from the October lows, it has faltered below 4200. A potential reversal could now develop, though a move below 4050 would need to provide the initial signal. A recovery back above Friday’s highs and above 4200 then puts the index on course for the August 2022 highs around 4320. Source: ProRealTime
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