Jump to content

Where is the Aussie now?


Mercury

Recommended Posts

After a decent run down, which looked like it might go on for some time, recent price action has left me wondering if we may yet see a fresh high on AUSUSD before a run to the bottom.  I am also seeing a similar pattern in high grade copper, which may give impetus to this scenario and recently it was reported that the RBA was satisfied with the state of the economy and no new stimulus was offered.

 

Looking at the charts there are basically 3 scenarios as follows:

  1.  Wave 4 is done and we are in the throes of a wave 5 down but it is messy with lots of whiplash and not much like a wave 5, more like it is still in a wave
  2. Wave 4 is not yet complete and Wave B was completed on 24 May, I like this set up because Wave 4 would fit better with a hit on or near the weekly tramline (purple); the pattern so far fits a wave A wave B better and there is strong positive momentum on both daily and weekly charts that probably has not yet abated.
  3. Final option is that Wave 5 down is done and this pair is beginning a bull market.  This is possible (see alternate EW labeling in red on weekly) and fits the strong Pos Mom Div but not the rest of the market place I feel

My feeling is that option 2 is right and I expect a retrace over the next few days before a strong rally.  If option 3 is right then a Long is anyway in the right direction but still have to guard against option 1 until one of the others is confirmed by price movement.  This pair may offer a decent alternative to the GBP and EUR Brexit issues.

 



Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      20,074
    • Total Posts
      88,131
    • Total Members
      69,067
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Pakhrin
    Joined 03/10/22 10:28
  • Posts

    • Intel Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Intel Corp., (INTC:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, October 3 2022,  INTC Stock Market Analysis:We are in wave C part of a huge wave 2. I will be looking forshorts only. INTC Elliott Wave count: (C) of {2}. INTC Technical Indicators:All indicators are signaling bearish momentum. INTC Trading Strategy: Looking to short any three wave upside pullback. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta         Intel Corp., INTC: 4-hour Chart, October 3 2022 Intel Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis INTC Stock Market Analysis: A textbook acceleration within a nest of waves threes. Looking formuch more downside to come. INTC Elliott Wave count: iii of (v). INTC Technical Indicators:All indicator are bearish, however we are starting to form RSIdivergence which could indicate we are preparing for a slightly larger pullback. INTC Trading Strategy: Looking to short any three wave upside pullback.
    • The Fibonacci MACD trading strategy is a simple but effective strategy that can be used with any type of trading setup. This article will teach you how to use the Fibonacci MACD strategy to profit from markets. Stocks, foreign exchange, futures and options, cryptocurrencies, and commodities can all be traded using this strategy. The Fibonacci numbers had first been described in Indian mathematics as early as 200 BC in Pingala’s work on enumerating possible Sanskrit literature areas to enable syllables of two bundles. They are given the name after the Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, later known as Fibonacci, who popularized the sequence in Western European mathematics in his 1202 text Liber Abaci. MACD & Fibonacci – Powerful Combination There are two main ways in which Fibonacci is generally used in trading – Using Fibonacci and price action Combination of Fibonacci with other trading tools  Fibonacci tool is positioned so that point zero corresponds with the extreme swing low on the left and point one corresponds with the highest high from which prices began to fall. In the following step, a rejection candle at the 0.5 Fibonacci level is identified, and the next candle is clearly closed above it – this confirms our Entry initiation.  When the macd line crosses the signal line from below in a row, the histogram turns green from red. Prices rose after that, making it a very profitable trade.      
×
×
  • Create New...