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Where is the Aussie now?


Mercury

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After a decent run down, which looked like it might go on for some time, recent price action has left me wondering if we may yet see a fresh high on AUSUSD before a run to the bottom.  I am also seeing a similar pattern in high grade copper, which may give impetus to this scenario and recently it was reported that the RBA was satisfied with the state of the economy and no new stimulus was offered.

 

Looking at the charts there are basically 3 scenarios as follows:

  1.  Wave 4 is done and we are in the throes of a wave 5 down but it is messy with lots of whiplash and not much like a wave 5, more like it is still in a wave
  2. Wave 4 is not yet complete and Wave B was completed on 24 May, I like this set up because Wave 4 would fit better with a hit on or near the weekly tramline (purple); the pattern so far fits a wave A wave B better and there is strong positive momentum on both daily and weekly charts that probably has not yet abated.
  3. Final option is that Wave 5 down is done and this pair is beginning a bull market.  This is possible (see alternate EW labeling in red on weekly) and fits the strong Pos Mom Div but not the rest of the market place I feel

My feeling is that option 2 is right and I expect a retrace over the next few days before a strong rally.  If option 3 is right then a Long is anyway in the right direction but still have to guard against option 1 until one of the others is confirmed by price movement.  This pair may offer a decent alternative to the GBP and EUR Brexit issues.

 



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