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10/06/21 10:53
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EURO, US DOLLAR, EUR/USD, FED, INFLATION, RATES, STOCKS – TALKING POINTS: Euro impressively resilient as the US Dollar rises against commodity FX Latest USD gains may reflect risk aversion more so than Fed anticipation Steadying risk appetite after FOMC meeting may drive down EUR/USD Grappling with a rapid pickup in inflation and speculating on the likely response to it by global central banks have defined the dominant narrative for financial markets since at least mid-2021. That’s when the Federal Reserve began to signal that the time had come to begin scaling back Covid-triggered stimulus. The start of 2022 brought a key turning point. The Fed’s hawkish rhetoric began to truly sink in for investors as it threatened to start ‘quantitative tightening’ – reducing the balance sheet to boost long-term interest rates – alongside interest rate hikes this year. Markets got the message: inflation expectations cooled while nominal interest rates pushed higher, implying confidence in the Fed’s conviction. That pulled real interest rates sharply higher. The benchmark 10-year TIPS rate is on pace to finish January with the biggest monthly rise in over two years. Rising inflation-adjusted returns on relatively safer assets have encouraged a rebalancing of portfolios. Ultra-low rates had pushed investors to riskier bets in search of returns. Now in reverse, the same dynamic has pulled down stocks, a bellwether asset class for market-wide risk appetite. Chart created with TradingView One might have expected that the US Dollar would be a star performer against such a backdrop, benefitting from yield support courtesy of the hawkish Fed. The currency is up on the month against an average of its major counterparts, but only modestly. In a telling breakdown, the Euro has managed impressive resilience while the New Zealand Dollar has suffered outsized losses. This appears to reflect a larger theme: since the start of the year, the Greenback’s rise against ‘pro-risk’ currencies has been more than double the gains versus ‘anti-risk’ alternatives. Put another way, USD has scored outsized gains against currencies sensitive to the global business cycle and market sentiment (AUD, NZD, CAD). Defensively-minded currencies (EUR, CHF, JPY) have held up markedly better, though the shift in Fed views has allowed the Greenback a modest overall advance. This is despite the former group looking set to match the four interest rate hikes now expected of the Fed in 2022. Meanwhile, the latter set is seen sustaining negative-interest-rate policies at least until next year. This preference for relative ‘safety’ over returns underscores the markets’ risk-off disposition. Chart created with TradingView With that in mind, this week’s much-anticipated monetary policy announcement from the Fed’s rate-setting FOMC committee may bring a somewhat novel response from the markets. Policymakers are firmly expected to hold firm this time ahead of a well-telegraphed hike in March. Meanwhile, a repeat of Fed officials’ already combative language from the recent weeks in the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference seems unlikely to move expectations much further. That might offer a brief bit of relief for markets, if only in that the risk of surprise escalation will have been neutralized. Interestingly, this might weigh on EUR/USD. If the Euro is indeed being held up by anti-risk flows, support may be undermined if risk appetite steadies after the Fed has said its piece. That would perhaps allow the Greenback’s advantage against the single currency on the relative yield front to shine anew. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Euro chart positioning is little-changed from last week’s setup. Prices are idling between resistance in a congestion area capped at 1.1378 and a rising trend line guiding the shallow rebound from last week’s lows. A daily close below this barrier would speak to downtrend resumption, exposing support below the 1.12 figure. Alternatively, reclaiming a foothold above 1.1378 may set the stage for another run at resistance clustered around the 1.15 mark. Making the case for upside follow-through probably demands still-greater conviction however, calling for a return north of 1.17. EUR/USD chart created with TradingView EURO TRADING RESOURCES Just getting started in the markets? See our free trading guides What is your trading personality? Take our quiz to find out Join a free webinar and have your trading questions answered Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC at DailyFX.com. 25th Jan 2022. -
Hi @ecou Natural gas prices retreated sharply on Wednesday as U.S. traders positioned themselves ahead of Thursday’s eagerly awaited inventories report. The current street consensus is predicting a 173 Bcf (billion cubic feet) draw from U.S. stockpiles, as cold weather batters the Midwest and the Northeastern sections of the United States. Wednesday’s decline saw natural gas futures close below the key 200-day moving average, potentially hinting at more pain for LNG (liquid natural gas) in the days ahead. However, price was able to hold above the key psychological $4.00 level, which could act as near-term support and fend off any potential drops. Despite the cooldown of natural gas prices throughout the second half of 2021, energy prices remain top of mind for politicians in Washington. In a press conference on Wednesday, President Joe Biden reaffirmed his commitment to getting more oil supply to the market. This comes as WTI and Brent crude continue to power higher above $85/bbl. Despite a relatively mild winter, risks remain for LNG. Bouts of colder weather and a relatively tight supply could exacerbate any price increases over the coming weeks. Global LNG prices also face significant pressure from the ongoing situation in Eastern Europe. The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline continues to be the center of attention, with many Western nations hinting at blocking completion of the project should Vladimir Putin elect to invade Ukraine. NATURAL GAS FUTURES DAILY CHART Chart created with TradingView European natural gas prices retreated Wednesday as well, as rumors spread that supply from China could saturate the markets in the near-term. European LNG futures fell by as much as 8.6% as Sinopec is rumored to be willing to sell numerous cargoes of LNG. Fresh supply for Europe could help alleviate growing price pressures across the continent, as prices more than tripled for some consumers in 2021. Overall sentiment in the space remains weak, with geopolitical tensions and the prospects of increased global supply weighing on price. Jan 20, 2022 | Brendan Fagan, Intern | DailyFX
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Early Morning Call: Markets recover; gold at 6-week highs; and earnings continue Buyers step in from Monday’s deep lows, but 24-hour markets remain under pressure; Europe may open higher, but downdraught continues. Gold rises as Ukraine tensions rise, oil also up. And earnings today: MC, MSFT, AMD, JNJ. https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/early-morning-call--markets-recover--gold-at-6-week-highs--and-e-220125 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
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Question
JamesIG
Make sure your MT4 platform is up to date
From July 1st, 2019, MetaQuotes (the company behind MT4) will end support for all MetaTrader 4 platform components below 1170. Old terminal versions will not be able to connect to broker trading servers, while servers running under old versions will no longer receive updates. You need to make sure your build is version 1170 or above which was originally released on December 20th 2018.
How to check your MT4 build version
If you are unsure if you are affected you can check this by going to the MT4 platform and then going to ‘Help’ and selecting ‘About’. On the bottom left you will see which ‘Build’ version you have and the date the software was published.
How to upgrade your version of MT4
Run MT4 as administrator by right-clicking on your desktop icon, and click “Run as administrator”. Then when MT4 is opened, you will be prompted to complete a LiveUpdate. If you are looking to update your mobile application simply update the app as you would with any other app.
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