My best trade of July

[Mercury]

July has been a choppy month for me with stocks being too difficult for a confirmed Bear to trade Long and post Brexit GBP/EUR resolution of long term trend not yet, well resolved...  I missed the Oil turn so am waiting for another chance on that (maybe turning long now?).  

 

I find when things are not going well on some markets others are ripe and so I ignored my usual markets and focused on USDJPY.  After the Brexit drop it looked initially like the end of the main trend down but I didn't like the turning point as a major turning point and the Weekly chart indicated to me that there was another large leg to go so I tracked the rally back up and saw an A-B-C retrace pattern.  A turn back down with Neg Mom Div at the Daily down-sloping tramline would give me a short opportunity with low risk (stops just above the turn) and large return potential. And this happened the morning of July 21 with a stop loss of about 75 points and a potential of about 1000 (I'm at 560 and counting).  There were 2 additional great entry points on 25 and 27 July (albeit in the wee hours).   BoJ did it's best to spoil the party with some volatility around their announcement on July 29 but since then it has been downhill all the way.  The market is in a little bit of consolidation just now but I anticipate a resumption of the drop to at least 9800 with a possibility of an end point in the 9500 at the most extreme (62% Fib off the all time low).

 

It has to be said that this is retrace trading and overall I am bullish on this pair so will be looking to exit shy of the extremes and to focus then on a way in Long to ride what I believe will be a strong rally.  However will have to wait and see how this next move evolves to make any decision on that.

 

So in short I think there is still a few hundred points on this trade Short before a change is on the cards.

 

Got any good trades to share?  I am always interested to see ow people identify an trade and enter it.

 

 

[Guest Ken]

Perfect trade  .

 

Mine was gold around 1320-1355.

I call the crude drop right (48-44-40) as you know but could not trade because lack of time and margin. I decided to focus on gold...

 

Next time let me know before the trade

[Mercury]

Hi , welcome back.  Just to let you know that I have a habit, some might say bad habit, of posting my road map musings well in advance.  While this opens me up to ridicule (by people who must be right more often than not I guess...) it is designed to invite challenge and comment (as you did on Gold, many thanks I will get back to you on that one).

 

If you have a look at the Technical analysis section you will find a thread on USDJPY, where I had forecast this potential trade.  I tend to follow a number of markets, do my in depth analysis at the weekends and follow a number of scenarios to pivotal points where one or more will be eliminated, hopefully leaving my lead scenario (doesn't always work out of course, in fact works out less often than not but that is trading).  In that context my strategy is to lose small and win big.