Gold/Silver rally at an end?

[Mercury]

For now perhaps this leg of the rally is over but long term, once the stocks and bonds market bubbles burst I think Gold and Silver will soar.  Commitments of Traders (COT) data are at all time highs for Gold and Silver and the non commercials are uniformly bad at calling the end of a trend, piling in just as the trend concludes.  Last week there was another COT surge in Silver, although Gold backed off a bit (cold feet?).  When main stream media start singing the praises of something that usually spells the end too.

 

Check out this article (link below).  I agree with the Black Swan moment and I think that will be asset bubbles bursting all over the place but we aren't there just yet.  I think we need to see another leg up in the suckers rally on stocks first and that could result is a coincidental drop in Gold/Silver to a retrace support point and then...

 

Anyone got a view they would care to share, especially to the contrary?

 

https://news.markets/commodities/gold-rallys-seen-best-days-rbc-23594/

 

[Mercury]

That was fast, good ol' NFP, I guess the market is now reassessing their probabilities of a Fed rate hike upward.  I think we can declare the current Gold and Silver rally aborted, at least for now.  I remain long term bullish but we need to see a significant retrace into an EWT Wave 2 retrace point before the next very strong rally wave.  There are several possible turning points so we will have to track it and see but so far I think we have already seen the A-B part of an A-B-C pull back so I expect this next move down to be a fairly strong 1-5 wave affair.  50% Fib is the most likely on this market in my view.  For now Shorting Gold and Silver is the way forward until that Black Swan moment arrives.

 

Anyone got a view they would care to share?