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An interesting Triad showing a contrarian signal? GBP/AUD/USD


Mercury

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Looking at Triads is interesting but difficult.  It is easy to get knocked out of a good set up in one pair because you can't see how all 3 fit together.

 

Looking at GBP/USD (see separate post for more detail) I see the start of a contrarian turn into a Wave C of a larger retrace that could head back up to the post Brexit price gap resistance level at a minimum (maybe higher).

 

Looking at GBP/AUD I see a similar set up to GBPUSD with a turn back up in retrace but this time it would be a complete retrace rather than just a Wave C and again could make it all the wave back up to the post Brexit price gap.

 

In order for GBP/AUD to make such a strong move AUD/USD really needs to drop and so far it has been looking like it will rally up to the Weekly down-sloping tramline and Fib 50% (of course the junction of these two is now past...).  However with a possible up-sloping tramline break and RSI/Stochastic looking bearish we could see a drop on this market.  With Non Commercials COT increasingly Bullish but not over cooked this pair is my least strong so I would need to see a confirmed break lower for this Triad set up to work.

 

I would love to hear if anyone else is looking at this Triad and especially thoughts on AUDUSD.

 

 

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All I know roughly about currency triads, is that if you have €-£  €-$ & £-$ you will get similar trends with different driving forces. However I do see the AUD$ possibly starting soon the final WC of C within  the ABC that has been occurring since February. Although I think my 4hourly chart has a slight different layout to yours in that I think that the overall wave C is a complex double zigzag. , I do however think we are on similar guidelines. The Weekly T-LINE is what be interesting to watch, once it hits it then downside will really prevail, hopefully.AUD USD DAILY.png

 

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Yeah that is my only worry on AUDUSD,  that the A-B-C retrace is not yet completed.  My Shorts are at B/E so free bet and I wouldn't be interested in a Long from here so worst case I get stopped out for no loss and wait in the tall grass for that A-B-C to conclude, probably at the Fib 50% (weekly/Monthly chart).  It is still possible for GBPAUS to rally with AUDUSD also rallying if GBPUSD rallies harder.  Next week should give some indications.  If AUDUSD doesn't rally then the drop is on.  I would say that a fall below the 7600 and then through 7580 is indicative that my first scenario is more likely.  A strong rally back up through the Daily up-sloping tramline is indicative that the A-B-C has yet to conclude. 

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