Gold Retrace Triangle but which way will it break out?

[Mercury]

The 4 Hour chart Triangle that I have been tracking for a breakout may have an alternative lower line so the breakout may not yet be on.  In fact I prefer a break of the lower support level to trigger a Short as another leg up within the Triangle is quite possible, especially if Stock indices go on a retrace down.

 

Is anyone trading Gold or Silver right now?  What is your view?

 



[donaldprice]

Hi Mercury, I share the same view, have been keeping a close eye on this now for a while but gold does not seem to be a tradable commodity right now as it is clearly stuck in this triangle, however it will break sometime and I possibly think a small rally to the top of the triangle might be just that final touch to complete W-e before heading lower riding the W-c.

 

[Mercury]

I guess it doesn't much matter whether it rallies within the Triangle or not  so long as we are positioned for a breakout either way, although at present I am biased towards the downside.  The longer things go on though the more likely it is that my bis will chance, rather depends on other markets I feel, in particular stocks where we may be on the verge of a top but will we see a retrace and rally before that or not?

[Mercury]

There is a general "rule" is classic chartism that a price gap through a major boundary line (i.e. geometric pattern line or Support/Resistance line) should be treated as a breakway gap (i.e. that it will not be filled as per usual).  This signals a strong move away from the gap.  We could have such a Gap on Silver.  I was initially wondering if we might get another gap back up leaving an island formation (a strong Bullish signal in this case) but so far it looks Bearish.  If Gold and Silver remain broadly aligned then we should see a bearish move on Gold too and today we have a break of my lower Triangle line (4 hour chart this time).

 

The only fly in the ointment is Yellen's post Jackson Hole speech at the end of the week.  It seems that the entire marketplace is waiting for a clue on US rates...  **** irritating or what?!?

 



[donaldprice]

Hi Mercury, you are absolutely right about the Jackson fed meeting has really stolen some of the essential momentum of the markets this week, which has been somewhat frustrating, however looking at this trade, I feel that gold has already began W1 of W5 of the C move, which commenced on the 18 august. Therefore if we see a bullish statement, it will without doubt be a retracement in gold only, unless any of us see an alternative wave count, which right now I cant.

[Guest Ken]

Hi  and 

 

Looks like its breaking down the triangles one by one. There is last one has support at 1320 then final flat line at 1310. I think there could be another very sharp leg up to 1340 area to clear some shorts before wave C.  

 

I think 1330-1340 area are good for shorts with the target of 1280.

 

Where is your entry points and targets ?

 

Cheers!

[Mercury]

They could be some clearing out in a brief retrace rally alright  but you can't rely on that, the best trades never retrace the initial break.  Having said that because this is most likely a larger time frame retrace rather than a trend change it may not have the same momentum as a motive wave so small retraces are very possible.

 

I am short after the break of my Triangle line on the sharp 12.00 drop through yesterday (similar on Silver but at 14.00) with Stops above key resistance levels.