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AshishIG

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  1. AshishIG
    Find our trading hours for International Workers Day & King Charles III’s Coronation in the table below. All times BST: 
     
    Monday 1 May
     
    International Workers Day
     
    European, UK, Hong Kong & South African equity markets will be closed.
     
    We will offer out-of-hours pricing on European, UK, Hong Kong, and South African indices until 10 pm.
    UK commodities (apart from Brent Crude and London Gas Oil) will be closed.
    European and UK rates and bonds will be closed.
     
    New York Cocoa, New York Coffee, and New York Sugar will open later at 12.30 pm.
     
    Monday 8 May
     
    Coronation Day
    UK equity, index, and commodities markets (apart from Brent Crude and London Gas Oil) will be closed.
    New York Cocoa, New York Coffee, and New York Sugar will open later at 12.30 pm.
     
    More resources are below for your reference:
     
    EU:
    Indices / Rates / Bonds:  https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/trade/trading-calendar/holiday-regulations and https://live.euronext.com/resources/trading-hours-holidays Equities: https://www.euronext.com/en/trade/trading-hours-holidays and https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stock-market-holiday-schedule  
    UK: 
    Equities: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/securities-trading/trading-access/business-days Indices / Rates / Bonds: https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures/Trading_Schedule_Migrated_Liffe_Contracts.pdf Commodities: https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/Trading_Schedule.pdf LBMA Fix: https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/Gold_Holiday_Calendar_2023.pdf  
    US Commodities:
    https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_ExNotDelayedOpensMay20230309.pdf  
    Hong Kong:
    https://www.hkex.com.hk/Services/Trading/Derivatives/Overview/Trading-Calendar-and-Holiday-Schedule?sc_lang=en (scroll all the way down)  
    South Africa:
    https://clientportal.jse.co.za/Content/JSE%20Trading%20Dates%20and%20Calendars%20Items/JSE%20Market%20Notice%2051122%20All%20Markets%20-%20JSE%20Markets%20Calendar%202023.pdf 
  2. AshishIG
    Minutes from the March FOMC meeting will be released on Thursday at 4 am AEST.
     
    Source: Bloomberg
      Indices Technical analysis S&P 500 Inflation Federal Open Market Committee Nasdaq  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 12 April 2023 11:34
    Key dates
    Minutes from the March FOMC meeting will be released on Thursday at 4 am AEST.
     
    The more cautious tone at the March FOMC meeting and the economic data that has transpired has the market pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bp rate hike for the FOMC May, followed by ~100bp of rate cuts priced into early 2024.

    “Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.”
    Expectations that the Feds rate hiking cycle is close to ending and that rate cuts are looming in the second half of 2023 have played a large part in the rally in US equities from the lows of mid-March.
    However, with inflation data due tonight for March and more than capable of upending current market pricing, the outlook for US equities is finely balanced at current levels.
    S&P 500 technical analysis
    In recent sessions, the S&P 500 stalled ahead of the top of its 3800-4200 range. While we can’t rule out a brief false break higher, we see the 4200 area as the right area to lighten exposure looking for a retest of the bottom of the range at 3800ish in the months ahead.
    Aware that should the S&P 500 see a sustained break above 4200 (three daily closes above 4200), it would likely see it extend its rally to the August 4327 high with scope towards 4500.
    S&P 500 daily chart
    Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis
    After a rampaging run higher during March and the first quarter of 2023, the Nasdaq last week posted a loss of momentum or “reversal candle”, which set the scene for a pullback over the past week.
    If the Nasdaq were to see a break of support 12900/12800, it would likely signal a deeper pullback is underway towards 12,400. However, should the Nasdaq hold support and then break above last week’s 13,348 high, it would set up a retest of the August 13,740 high.
    Nasdaq daily chart
    Source: TradingView
    Dow Jones technical analysis
    Last week the Dow Jones extended its rebound for a third week and is now eyeing significant downtrend resistance at 34,000 (from the bull market 36,952 high). At least in the initial instance, we expect this downtrend line to cap with scope for a retracement back to the 200-day moving average at 32,500.
    Aware that should the Dow Jones make a sustained break above 34,000, it opens a test of the 34,712 high from December 2022 with scope to a 35,492 high from April 2022.
    Dow Jones daily chart
    Source: TradingView
    TradingView: the figures stated are as of April 12th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation
  3. AshishIG
    Following the release of US jobs data on Friday night, the next important set of jobs data is the Australian Labour Force report for March, released Thursday morning at 11.30 am AEST.
    Source: Bloomberg
      Forex AUD/USD Australian dollar United States dollar Moving average Technical analysis  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 12 April 2023 10:22
    The release of US Employment data on Friday night confirmed that the pace of employment growth in the US was in line with expectations.
    The slowest pace of job growth since December 2020 was topped off by average hourly earnings which increased by 4.2% YoY in March, its smallest increase since June 2021, supporting the idea that the Fed is very close to ending its tightening cycle.
    The next important set of jobs data for traders is the Australian Labour Force report for March, released Thursday morning at 11.30 am AEST.
    What is expected?
    After declines in December (-16.6k) and January (-10.9k), employment bounced back in February, increasing by +64.6k.
    With holiday period seasonal volatility now in the rear vision mirror, the market is looking for a +20k rise in jobs and for the unemployment rate to rise to 3.6% in March from 3.5% in February.
    What would constitute a surprise?
    The market will look for evidence of moderation in the labor market (as viewed in the US last Friday night) to support market pricing that the RBA’s rate hiking cycle will remain on hold.
    To this effect, should the unemployment rate print at 3.7% or higher, it would be a good guide that the RBA will stay on the sidelines in May (pending Q1 inflation data) and spark further conversation around RBA rate cuts in the second half of this year. However, this would be a small negative for the AUD/USD.
    Conversely, should the unemployment rate print at 3.5% or lower, and if Q1 2023 CPI data (released on April 26th) is hotter than expected, it would likely force the RBA to lift the cash rate again by 25bp to 3.85% as early as its May meeting.
    In turn, this would be a small net positive for the AUD/USD.
    Australian employment rate chart
     
    Source: Trading Economics
    AUD/USD technical analysis
    Last week the AUD/USD closed 0.24% lower at .6669, weighed on by the RBA’s pause and mounting expectations of a 25bp rate hike from the Fed at its May meeting, not to mention global growth slow-down concerns.
    Besides the brief pre-RBA short squeeze earlier this month, the AUD/USD has spent the past six weeks trading below the 200-day moving average without really building on the downside momentum it gained in early March.
    Nonetheless, unless the pair were to see a break above the 200-day moving average at .6746 and above the early April .6794 high, we will remain with the negative bias looking for a move towards .6500c.
    AUD/USD daily chart
     
    Source: TradingView
    TradingView: the figures stated are as of April 12th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation
  4. AshishIG
    The lead-up to the US CPI release later today set the stage for some cautious trading overnight, with major US indices ending the day mixed on lower-than-usual volume.
    Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Consumer price index Inflation /business/market_index United States  Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 12 April 2023 07:33
      Market Recap The lead-up to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release later today set the stage for some cautious trading overnight, with major US indices ending the day mixed on lower-than-usual volume. The outperformance in value sectors (energy +0.89%, financials +0.85%) compared to growth sectors (communication services -0.42%, technology -1.03%) overnight seems to reflect some positioning for upside risks to inflation, with the trend that value stocks tend to be preferred during inflationary periods. The VIX has also seen a last-hour surge on increased hedging activities.
    Current expectations are for US headline CPI reading to moderate sharply to 5.2% year-on-year (YoY) from previous 6%, but with higher oil prices setting the stage for some inflationary pressures ahead, more attention could revolve around the core inflation aspects. Month-on-month, core CPI is expected to head lower to 0.4% from previous 0.5%, but year-on-year expectations are for a tick higher to 5.6% from previous 5.5%, overall forming a mixed bag. Any higher-than-expected inflation print could lay the ground for another 25 basis-point rate hike in June from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the hawkish recalibration in rate expectations likely to support higher US dollar and weaker equities (growth).
    The higher highs/higher lows narrative remains intact for the Nasdaq 100 but the index is hovering at a key Fibonacci confluence zone, which will serve as immediate resistance to overcome. A bearish divergence on moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) suggests abating upward momentum, with sentiments on hold for further cues on the fight against inflation. Any retracement may still leave the formation of a higher low on watch. On the upside, any successful move above the Fibonacci confluence zone may pave the way for a retest of its August 2022 high.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    Asia Open
    Asian stocks look set for a slight positive open, with Nikkei +0.33%, ASX +0.53% and KOSPI +0.34% at the time of writing (8.30am SGT). Lower-for-longer growth outlook seems to be the takeaway from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday. Its global economic growth forecasts for this and next year have been revised lower by 0.1%, with the forecasts based on the assumption that the recent financial sector stresses are contained. Further knock-on impact will likely surface over the coming months, with tighter lending standards potentially reflected in weaker consumer spending and lower firms’ investments.
    Japan’s March producer price index (PPI) came in slightly higher than expected at 7.2% this morning, but the sharp moderation from previous 8.2% could help in limiting the cost pass-through to consumers. Nevertheless, a shift in the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy remains a question of not if but when, although we have seen a pushback in expected timeline from July this year to potentially only in 2024.
    The USD/JPY is attempting to push above its current consolidation range, with higher lows on MACD reflecting building upward momentum. Much will revolve around the US CPI data to provide the go-ahead for further upside. However, a series of resistance ahead may likely push back against a renewed bull trend for the pair, particularly at the 138.00 level. This is where a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level stands in coincidence with its key 200-day moving average (MA).
     
    Source: IG charts  
    On the watchlist: EUR/USD nears February high ahead of US CPI release
    After a brief consolidation last month, the bulls have retained control of the EUR/USD, with the pair heading near its February high at the 1.100-1.103 level. While broad expectations are for the Fed to deliver one last 25 basis-point rate hike in May, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep hiking. Market pricing is for three more 25 basis-point moves over the next three meetings from the ECB, with the potential diverging policy path supportive of EUR/USD’s upside. That said, much will surely hinge on the US CPI data later to convince market participants that a Fed hike in June will not be needed.
    For now, the 1.100-1.103 level will be a strong resistance to overcome, which marked a bearish shooting star candle on the weekly chart. Overcoming this level could be on watch to support further upside to the 1.128 level. On the other hand, failure to cross the level could bring several support lines in sight, which include an upward trendline and a Fibonacci level at 1.061.
     
    Source: IG charts Tuesday: DJIA +0.29%; S&P 500 -0.00%; Nasdaq -0.43%, DAX +0.37%, FTSE +0.57%
  5. AshishIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By AshishIG,


    The Week Ahead
    Week commencing 29 April
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    The presence of a Ferderal Reserve (Fed) meeting, non-farm payrolls and earnings from Amazon and Apple make this week a huge one for the US economy. While the Fed is not expected to change policy, the recent weaker Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and higher price growth data will cast a shadow over their deliberations. Also on the calendar this week will be GDP and consumer price index (CPI) figures from Germany and the eurozone, as well as Chinese purchasing managers index (PMI)s. Earnings continue to come through thick and fast, and along with the tech titans, Pifzer, GSK and McDonald’s all report figures.
      Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    1pm – German CPI (April): prices expected to rise 2.3% YoY and 0.5% MoM, from 2.2% and 0.4%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

    Tuesday
    2.30am – China PMI (April): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 51.2 from 50.8, and non-manufacturing PMI to rise to 53.2 from 53. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

    2.45am – China Caixin (April): expected to rise to 51.3 from 51.1. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

    9am – German GDP (Q1, flash): QoQ and YoY growth expected to be 0.1%, from -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

    10am – eurozone GDP (Q1, flash), CPI (April, flash): QoQ growth rate forecast to rise to 0.2% from 0%, and YoY to rise to 0.5% from 0.2%. Inflationexpected to hold at 2.4% YoY and slow to 0.6% MoM from 0.8%, and core CPI to slow to 2.8% YoY from 2.9%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

    2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (April): index forecast to rise to 44 from 41.5. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Wednesday
    6am - Japan consumer confidence (April): index expected to rise to 39.6 from 39.5. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

    1.15pm – US ADP employment report (April): 162,000 jobs expected to have been created, from 184,000. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (April): index forecast to slip into contraction, down to 49 from 50.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 26 April): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 6.4 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    7pm – Fed rate decision: no change to current 5.5% rates expected, but the commentary and dot plot will be closely-watched for clues as to the direction of rates this year. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    Thursday
    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 27 April): preceding week’s reading 207K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls & employment report (April): payrolls forecast to rise by 190K, from 303K last month. Unemployment rate expected to hold at 3.8%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, in line with last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    29 April
    Tuesday
    30 April
    Wednesday
    1 May
    Thursday
    2 May
    Friday
    3 May
    Full-year earnings
     
    Whitbread
     
     
    Trainline
    Half/ Quarterly earnings
     
    HSBC,
    Mercedes Benz,
    Deutsche Lufthansa,
    Volkswagen,
    Coca-Cola,
    Amazon,
    McDonald’s,
    Paypal
    GSK,
    Aston Martin Lagonda,
    Pfizer,
    Mastercard,
    eBay
    Shell,
    Standard Chartered,
    Apple,
    ConocoPhillips
    Société Générale
    Trading update*
     
     
    Next,
    Wickes,
    Haleon,
    Metro Bank,
    Barratt Developments
     
    Intercontinental Hotels
     
    * Please note these can change without notice
      Dividends
    FTSE 100: RELX, Glencore
    FTSE 250: Senior, IWG, Inchcape, Hiscox, Coats, Elementis, Genuity, 4imprint, Edinburgh Inv. Trust
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    29 April
    Tuesday
    30 April
    Wednesday
    1 May
    Thursday
    2 May
    Friday
    3 May
    Monday
    6 May
    FTSE 100
     
     
    3.17
     
     
     
    Australia 200
     
     
    0.4
     
     
    9.5
    Wall Street
     
     
     
     
    0.8
     
    US 500
    0.18
    0.04
    0.23
    0.25
    0.18
    0.27
    Nasdaq
     
     
     
    0.28
    0.70
    1.56
    Netherlands 25
     
     
    0.91
     
     
     
    EU Stocks 50
    5.4
     
    2.0
    3.0
    4.3
     
    China H-Shares
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Singapore Blue Chip
    0.06
     
    0.62
    0.04
     
     
    Hong Kong HS50
     
     
     
     
     
     
    South Africa 40
     
     
    18
     
     
     
    Italy 40
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Japan 225
     
     
     
     
     
     
  6. AshishIG
    Find below the table that shows the number of days' worth of overnight funding fees you will be charged if you keep a Forex position open on a particular day. The overnight funding fee is the cost of holding a position overnight through 10 PM UK time, and it is charged at the end of each trading day. This fee is calculated based on the size of your position and the interest rate differential between the two currencies involved in the trade plus the IG admin fee.
    To help you manage your trading costs and make informed decisions, we have created this table that displays the number of days' worth of overnight funding fee you will be charged. This information can be used to estimate the cost of holding a position over a certain period and to decide whether to keep it open or close it before the end of the trading day. In the future, we will regularly publish this table at the start of each new month.




    Disclaimer:
    Please note that in some cases, the number of days may change due to public holidays or bank holidays. We will do our best to inform you of any changes as soon as possible, but we recommend that you keep an eye on the holiday calendar to avoid any surprises.
  7. AshishIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 10th June 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day.

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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