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GeorgeIG

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  1. GeorgeIG
    Lyft, the most recent high profile IPO, shares have seen huge trading activity over the first two days of trading as over 41.5 million shares were traded, well over the 32.5 million offered in the IPO. However, the ride-hailing company saw it's shares slump 12% on its second day of trading down to $69.01, below the official IPO price of $72. The downturn comes after the stock rallied to a high of $88.60 on Friday. US equities surged on Monday due to strong manufacturing data as factory activity rose and construction spending hit  9-month high. The Dow was up 330 points, closing above 26,000 for the first time since February, followed by the Nasdaq which rose 1.3%. The S&P 500 mirrored the strong performance and increased by 1.2%. Asian shares have lost momentum after Monday's equity rally, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index were both flat. The ASX 200 jumped 0.4% whereas the Topix index fell 0.3%. Sterling depreciated 0.3% against the dollar to $1.3070 as MPs rejected all four Brexit proposals yesterday with Ken Clarke's customs union proposal narrowly missing a majority by 3 votes. Mrs May has scheduled a five hour cabinet meeting today to discuss the next steps for Brexit.  Oil climbed to fresh 2019 highs due to the possibility of further sanctions on Iran, WTI futures rose 0.5% up to $61.89 per barrel whilst Brent crude also rose 0.5% to $69.33. Gold remained little changed at $1,288.36 per troy ounce. Asian overnight: A significantly calmer session overnight saw Asian markets tentatively gain ground, with the residual effect of weekend Chinese PMI gains continued to have an effect. The big overnight event came in Australia where the RBA decided to keep interest rates steady despite calls to cut amid a weakening housing markets and credit squeeze. Despite the fall in housing price, we saw an incredible 18.1% rise in building approvals for February; the highest since 2012.
    UK, US and Europe: Last night saw the UK parliament once again reject all options ahead of them, raising the likeliness that Theresa May will try to bring her plan back for yet another try. This morning we see the UK construction PMI released, coming off the back of yesterday’s impressive manufacturing figure. In the afternoon, keep an eye out for the US core durable goods figure.
    South Africa: Global equity markets look to be catching their breathe today after yesterday's strong gains. US Index futures are marginally lower while Asian indices are marginally higher this morning. The dollar is slightly firmer while precious and base metal prices trade mostly lower. The rand, although off its best levels remains firm after recent news that South Africa has managed to avert a credit rating downgrade (for now). Tencent Holdings is up 0.3% in Asia, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. The BHP Group is flat in Australia suggetsive of a modest opening for local diversified resource counters.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK construction PMI (March): expected to fall to 49.1 from 49.5. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    10am – eurozone unemployment rate (February): jobless rate to hold at 7.8%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US durable goods orders (February): orders expected to fall 1.2% MoM, but rise 0.2% MoM excluding transportation. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    BHP Billiton said that it was reassessing its full-year output and cost guidance following the impact of Tropical Cyclone Veronica. The cyclone has reduced production by around 6-8 million tonnes.  Galliford Try has signed an agreement with Homes England to build more than 850 houses across England.  Ryanair said that passenger growth was 9% overall for March, to 10.9 million.  The US safety authoritiyes are set to investigate Kia and Hyundai vehicles amid thousands of reports of "non-crash fires", which could see mass vehicle recalls. Boeing is set to apply a software upgrade to its disaster-struck 737 Max aircraft model in the next few weeks after initially informing airlines that the new software would be ready by the end of March. Struggling womenswear brand Bonmarché has been bought out by retail billionaire Philip Day in a deal worth £5.7m. Philip Day's holding company issued the following statement "Against the backdrop of the significant decline in Bonmarché's profitability, Spectre believes it is well positioned to provide advice, guidance and support to secure the long term future of the Bonmarché business, its stores and employees". Anglo American upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank
    EasyJet upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    Vallourec upgraded to buy at SocGen
    Atos downgraded to sell at Berenberg
    RELX downgraded to add at AlphaValue
    Deutsche Post downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Engie downgraded to sector perform at RB
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  2. GeorgeIG
    Reports over the weekend have indicated that the US and China are in the later stages of trade talk discussions in a deal which could see tariffs and sanctions lifted on both sides. Donald Trump tweeted over the weekend asking China to remove all tariffs on agricultural products and that trade talks are "moving along nicely".  Asian equity markets reacted positively to the trade talk progress; the Nikkei rose 1%, whilst the Shanghai Composite increased by 2.5% and the Hang Seng jumped 1.2%. Theresa May has announced a £1.6bn fund for pro-Brexit constituencies which would be used to boost economic activity in these areas, although some believe she is doing this purely to "bribe MPs" in voting for her withdrawal agreement. WTI Oil rose 0.3% to $55.96 per barrel due to signs of slowing US production and OPEC continuing their cutbacks. Gold increased by 0.1% to $1295 per ounce. Ted Baker CEO Ray Kelvin has resigned from the company, which he founded in 1988, with immediate effect due to allegations of inappropriate behavior. The news adds to the turbulent couple of weeks for the retailer as the company issued a profit warning last week. Asian overnight: A positive start to the week has seen Asian markets push higher ahead of a crucial week of economic data. Optimism over a potential US-China trade deal continue to add fuel to the fire for bulls, with a mooted summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump on 27 March raising the prospect of a final deal. Looking ahead, a somewhat slow start to a busy week sees the UK construction PMI dominate. With the survey falling sharply towards contraction territory (50.6), all eyes will be focused on whether we see a continuation of that weakness seen last month. 
    UK, US and Europe: Mrs May has come under-fire over her new £1.6bn 'Stronger Towns Fund', which she says will create jobs and boost economic activity in pro-Brexit towns. The PM outlined that "communities across the country voted for Brexit as an expression of their desire to see change - that must be a change for the better, with more opportunity and greater control". Although, some people have suggested that this is a "desperate measure to buy votes" in order to push her withdrawal agreement over the line as it has been announced just days before MPs are scheduled to vote on her Brexit deal.
    South Africa: Global equity markets continue to trade higher on optimism that the US and China could be nearing a trade deal. While the dollar has softened a bit this morning it comes off the back of significant strength on Friday after the US posted better than expected GDP data. Gold trades back below the $1300/oz mark in part due to the stronger dollar and reduced safe haven demand for the precious metal on improving trade relations (with China). The rand is back above the R14/$ mark. Tencent Holdings is up 3.3% in Asia suggestive of a strong start for Naspers. The BHP Group is up 1.2% higher in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK construction PMI (February): forecast to fall to 50.1 from 50.6. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Senior has reported a 17% rise in annual profit, with pre-tax profit hitting £61.3 million. Revenue rose 5.7% to £1.08 billion.  British American Tobacco said it was ‘extremely disappointed’ that the Quebec court of appeal had not overturned a decision against its Canadian subsidiary.  888 has bought BetBright’s sports betting platform for £15 million.  Aviva has announced Maurice Tulloch as its new CEO this morning, Mr. Tulloch has been at the company since 1992 and takes over from Mark Wilson. Ageas upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Carlsberg upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Sievi Capital upgraded to accumulate at Inderes
    Evolution Gaming raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Acciona downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Centamin downgraded to neutral at CI Capital
    Heineken downgraded to sector perform at RBC
    Victrex downgraded to sell at Cit
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  3. GeorgeIG
    Theresa May has announced that she has secured "legally binding changes" to the withdrawal agreement ahead of the pivotal vote on her deal in the House of Commons this evening. Specifically, the changes mean that the Irish backstop would not "become permanent". The pound soared after the news broke rising to a high of $1.3290 before falling back down to its current level of $1.3208, still up over 2% from Monday's low. Boeing shares have fallen over 5% after the fatal plane crash in Ethiopia, which killed all 157 people on board. Multiple airlines have grounded Boeing's 737 MAX 8 aircraft as the disaster on Sunday was the second in five months involving the new Boeing aircraft.  Strong gains within the US technology sector offset the decline in Boeing as the Dow closed 200 points higher. The Nasdaq also rose 2% followed by the S&P which gained 1.45%. Apple has announced an event for the 25th of March where it is widely anticipated that the company will announce a TV streaming and news subscription service to rival Netflix. The event invitation includes the caption "It's show time". Gold added 0.2% to $1,296 per ounce. Asian overnight: A bullish session overnight saw gains from Chinese, Japanese, and Hong Kong shares, with the Australian ASX 200 index trading marginally lower. Much of the positive sentiment came thanks to a strong US session, as the topic of US-China trade talks came back into play. With Chinese state TV reporting that vice-premier Liu He, Robert Lighthizer, and US trade representative and Steven Mnuchin spoke on the phone, there is hope that talks could soon resume. 
    UK, US and Europe: However, it was Brexit that caused the most volatility overnight, with the pound gaining sharply off the back of a seemingly successful last-minute dash to Strasbourg by Theresa May. Legally binding amendments to the withdrawal agreement have raised hopes that her deal could be approved in today’s vote. While the vote is almost certain to be closer than last time, the day will be dominated by commentary across the political spectrum which should highlight what chance it really has. Thus, the pound is the currency to watch today, with UK GDP (monthly), manufacturing production, industrial production, and trade balance data all being released to heighten that focus. Also keep an eye out for US CPI inflation data released later in the day. 
    South Africa: Our local bourse looks set to open firmer this morning following firmer US Index Futures and Asian equity markets. There has been suggestion of progress between the US and China in trade negotiations, and in turn markets grow optimistic of news to come. Markets have also been encouraged by Theresa May having adjusted the terms of a Brexit deal with the EU, which will be voted upon this evening by UK parliament. The dollar trades softer and commodities trade higher this morning. The rand has also managed to claw back some of its recent losses on the short term improved risk appetite. Tencent Holdings is up 1.4% in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Group is up 1% in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    UK Parliament votes on Withdrawal Agreement
    9.30am – UK GDP (January): growth to rise 0.1% MoM, while the three-month average holds at 0.2%. Market to watch: GBP crosses
    12.30pm – US CPI (February): inflation to be 1.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM, while core falls to 2.15 YoY and holds at 0.2% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses
    11.30pm - Australia Westpac consumer confidence: index expected to fall to 102.5 from 103.8. Market to watch: AUD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Wood Group has won a ‘multi-million dollar’ construction contract from IR1 group relating to a biofuels facility in Oregon.  Sirius Minerals said that it had been approached by a ‘major global financial institution’ with an alternative funding proposal. Other proposals continue to be pursued.  Domino’s Pizza reported a 1.1% drop in pre-tax profit for 2018, to £93.4 million, while sales rose 9% to £1.26 billion. Weak growth in its international division hurt performance.  Struggling retailer French Connection has said that it has begun"preliminary discussions with several interested parties" regarding the sale of the company. Befimmo upgraded to buy at ING
    Clarkson upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
    Lloyds upgraded to neutral at Goldman
    P2P Global Investments upgraded to buy at Canaccord
    Antofagasta downgraded to sector perform at RBC
    Standard Life Aberdeen cut to underperform at RBC
    Munich Re downgraded to hold at Bankhaus Lampe
    Standard Chartered downgraded to reduce at AlphaValu
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
     

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