[BOO HOO. I'm Losing Money Please Help]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Nic Duke is an old hand from the Trade2Win forum and a good friend of Tom Dante.

thanks - will check out the forum and Dante's posts on twitter and youtube

[BOO HOO. I'm Losing Money Please Help]

28 minutes ago, TheGuru12 said:

lol, What's going on here? What's with all the negativity dudes and dudettes? 

..seems not exactly what Nicola Duke said ("compete with yourself, cooperate with others")...

 

(https://chatwithtraders.libsyn.com/rss, around min. 38)

[NDX]

trying out third oder pivots as defined by Adam H. Grimes (https://adamhgrimes.com/library/market-structure/)..:  a short entered after it became clear (with the open of the candle starting 4 pm Wednesday) that the Tuesday NQ high was a third order pivot on the one hour chart would be in profit - however, no exit signal, yet, correct me if I'm wrong...:

black arrows: 1st order "Grimes pivots", blue: 2nd order, yellow: 3rd order (first order pivots only marked if relevant to establish 2nd order pivots)

(maybe this can be fine-tuned by distinguishing by the the extent of pullbacks, or direction vs direction of a higher level trend..)

[NDX]

4 hours ago, dmedin said:

it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization

...leading (to concentration..) everywhere... even in the boring CS sector - six US companies >30% of global market cap...

(and two of them make identical soft drinks...)

 

[NDX]

12 minutes ago, HMB said:

think there are also studies pointing to long-term S&P 500 returns basically consisting mostly of dividends.

sorry this is nonsense of course - long-term average US equity returns, not SPX

[NDX]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Dollar cost averaging

I've seen studies coming to the conclusion that it doesn't matter much - but like all studies, they are limited.  leverage will likely change everything.  I tend to agree with you, and maybe there is some value one can add with timing - by strict cost averaging or some other approach (I obviously haven't managed to do that, yet).

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Don't forget reinvested dividends.

yes, think there are also studies pointing to long-term S&P 500 returns basically consisting mostly of dividends.

 

however, I wanted to stress another conclusion, related to your next comment:

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

But yes, it is the U.S. indices which only ever go up throughout time.  That is because it is the U.S. that is the bastion of Western civilization.

 think my previous post came after yours, so repeating a part here:

10 minutes ago, HMB said:

it seems all that matters in capitalism is change in consumer behavior enabled by technological progress

i.e. as you say "bastion of Western civilization" - because of the strength of the (aggregate) US consumer... but also due to frequent innovation of technologies triggering changes in consumer behavior.

cultural factors may play a role, too - importance of fashion, materialism... etc.  this could be interesting to monitor as well, maybe it changes (history would suggest not...) 

[NDX]

19 minutes ago, HMB said:

Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

 

 

...looking at this vs. rest of the asset world (see earlier posts in other sections): it seems all that matters in capitalism is change in consumer behavior enabled by technological progress; wars and other destructive episodes cause only temporary shifts; same for global convergence of standards of living - by definition.  indices like NDX (i.e. portfolios with automated replacement of defaulted companies..) that are underweight mature industries (i.e. industries with high level of competition or highly regulated industries like traditional energy, utilities, materials and financials) will always outperform (broader indices) in the long run.   thoughts?

[DXY]

flat over 17 years

[XAU]

flat over 9 years or so

[CL]

flat over 16 years

[HG]

Flat over 13 years

[NDX]

Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so.  Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach...  All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:

 

 

[FTXIN9]

1.2% p.a. 😐 😶

[SX5E]

22 years flat

[ASX]

😐

[RTY]

went nowhere in 2.5 years 😐😶

[NKY]

flat over three years

😐😩

 

[DAX]

3% in 5 years or so...  

 

😐

[NDX]

looks like levels significantly above range which was recently left successfully defended...:

 

 

[Stimulating stimulus.]

...can't help thinking from time to time that this might have played a role for decisions about asset price-inflating stimulus measures..:

"Even before the record first-quarter losses, public pension plans were $4.1 trillion short of the $8.9 trillion they will need to cover promised future benefits, according to the Federal Reserve.

Decades of overoptimistic return assumptions, insufficient pension-fund contributions and lengthening lifespans created massive shortfalls in public pension funds that the 11-year bull market didn’t cure.

Over the past decade, public pensions had ramped up stockholdings and other risky investments in an effort to meet aggressive return targets that average around 7%, according to a survey by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators.

For the 20 years ended March 31, public pension-plan returns have fallen short of that target, however, returning a median 5.2% according to Wilshire TUCS."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/public-pension-fund-losses-set-record-in-first-quarter-11589240175  (May 12)

[Stimulating stimulus.]

4 hours ago, 786Trader said:

This will affect profits as the FANGs become viewed more as utilities then innovative tech firms. 

important scenario to consider, I think

 

4 hours ago, 786Trader said:

historic measures such as P/e and EBITA.

yes, they are extreme - not relative to UST yields, though - but that's exactly your point about stimulus

 

3 hours ago, 786Trader said:

holding cash means that when bargains come along, the money is there to  put a down a deposit, leaving one free to borrow the rest at just over zero% interest.

like the guys buying late March - looks like such opportunities come around every decade or so..

 

[Stimulating stimulus.]

5 hours ago, dmedin said:

Apparently the 'free markets' need lots of free money from government to keep them going.

Your average human being?  They can just muddle on with redundancy and mounting bills.  Who cares about human beings?

...the average human being in the so-called developed countries wears 100-dollar T-shirts with names of millionaires glorified for their soccer-playing skills on them, buys a half-square-meter "mobile" phone with a glass surface case to carry outside and then gets sad about scratches, owns a 150mph top speed car in a country were the limit is 70, begs night club bouncers for being squeezed into a drunk, sweaty crowd in a tiny room with beats at health-threatening, unbearable volume, fights at the crowded bar to get over-priced drinks, drops their trash everywhere they go, drives like an a**h**e...  blames foreigners for their "misery" and votes for Brexit.  sadly, Nietzsche comes to mind here...  why care about the AHB...?

(obviously deliberately provocative) - hoping for a convincing counter-argument, save the day dmedin!

[Stimulating stimulus.]

5 hours ago, dmedin said:

The effective rate of tax will still be lower than it was under Obama.

interesting

[Stimulating stimulus.]

9 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Lets first see how the election goes (president and congress) before we price in future earnings

"It is one way Mr. Biden hopes to reverse President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and extract money from corporations if he wins the presidency and Democrats take full control of Congress. The argument for higher corporate taxes resonates with many voters."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-tax-plan-targets-profitable-companies-that-pay-almost-nothing-11595848477

good point - mainstream narrative recently seems to be that market expects tax hikes later, stimulus first...  I believe the technology convergence/growth story (well described in "The Future is Faster Than You Think", Diamandis/Kotler) dominates both, though, and I can't see Biden/Congress damaging US Tech dominance too much...  (they're needed to stay ahead of China..)  however I of course agree these (taxes, also monopoly issues...) are factors potentially creating significant volatility    

[Stimulating stimulus.]

2 hours ago, 786Trader said:

Until investors realise (too late) that they have bid the market up so high that it's suddenly over valued and overbought!

Interesting post!

I tend to agree with you, but let me just play the advocatus diabolo here for the sake of progressing the discussion:

Which market are you referring yo - NYFANG +MSFT (and maybe TAN and UBER etc.) or the rest of the world?

Define overvalued.  Financial conditions are unprecedentedly easy across the globe - so what to compare current levels of P/E, EV/EBITDA etc. with?  To me this market seemed overvalued since 2018 the latest...

The alternative narrative is, that what's going on is simply everyone trying to get a piece of ownership in an obvious future pie, to be grown by a massive change of our way of life due to convergence of various fast-progressing technologies.  Wouldn't be the first time....  The stimulus theme is certainly more than a side show, and accelerated  dynamics, but it didn't create the underlying trend.  Hence its absence alone would not end it.

negative earnings for a while would, eventually, though, I guess... 

how much do Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Tesla earnings depend on stimulus?  (genuine question - I have no idea)