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HMB last won the day on November 26 2020

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  1. HMB


    Interesting! great chart.
  2. HMB


    From BBG (link below): "But particularly in light of the rising resolve to fight inflation among central bankers, many sensed a change in the air after a year of virtually uninterrupted gains. " ... "As rough as it got, bargain hunters remained mostly undaunted. Retail day traders, this bull market’s steadfast ally, are again buying the dip, snapping up shares at a clip that according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. was unprecedented. Dip buyers emerged late Friday, sending the S&P 500 up more than 30 points in the final 10 minutes of trading." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-03/two-years-of-market-swagger-go-missing-in-week-of-stock-upheaval?sref=xrmt8Ljy ...would be interested in views regarding if dip-buying will prevail this time eventually, or if the shift in central bank policies is fundamental enough to end the bull... Personally I consider a Monday NDX rebound more likely than a continued sell-off, I think Santa rally bets will still play a role, long bonds have actually been rising the whole week, which could of course mean pricing in of a policy mistake - but the 2 year also rebounded Friday and is pretty close to where it was just eight days ago, so one could also argue that overall bond markets disagree with the extent to which the hawkish narrative is priced into equities... if instead Omicron was indeed the driving factor, then I wonder why stay-at-home trades should continue to under-perform, and would argue that potential further supply chain issues could well be priced in by now - with NDX Friday low a bit more than 7% below the intraday ATH in November. Again, just my personal weighing - looking forward to responses..!
  3. HMB


    if that's not gonna turn into a 200-point min rally into the close, I'll voluntarily buy 0.01 BTC as soon as it becomes eligible for demo accounts...
  4. HMB


    Agree. Last earnings season didn't lift NDX at all, a small correction came shortly after it was out of the way, followed by a rally - part of the narrative was support for growth stocks by lower discount rates..: that obviously wasn't dominating enough yesterday to keep NDX in the green - but could well explain its out-performance (like last week). ..after several hypothesis about bond market action driven by positioning (short squeeze), other technical factors and pricing in/out of policy mistakes had been flowing around since the last dot plot, more recently the moves are frequently attributed to growth worries in mainstream media... trying to piece these and other mosaic bits together (highly subjectively): economic growth worries may be priced in sufficiently for now in markets like NKY and Dax (also the SPX drawdown was already larger than the previous one). NDX may have been held up by the longer (secular) trend and the characteristics of its main members as "new defensives" established since the outbreak. This view would imply more likely a rebound (following Dax and NKY today). Earnings season playing out similarly to last time (blowout numbers unable to give much positive impulse) seems unlikely - that would simply be too easy IMHO, plus mentioned yield moves, plus less inflation worries (not least due to recent corrections in commodities like lumber, oil...) give a very different backdrop... strong rebound in last half hour of trading yesterday points to BTFP having already started - could quickly lead to FOMO kicking in again... an alternative view would be that it was simply more idiosyncratic moves (NVIDIA, Moderna, Tesla) providing relative support yesterday (personally, am currently not trading real money, but in demo and pending social trading account currently positioned for the former) guess relevant wildcards are of course neg. earnings surprises and a crypto crash... amongst others
  5. HMB


    presumably, if someone decided after the morning action to get out of some very large positions successively, and buys a few bits back between sales to keep prices within an acceptable range, charts would look very much like this...:
  6. HMB


    ...engineering a Q2 earnings rally in July would probably be easier for WS from somewhat lower levels...:
  7. probably missing the point, but I don't get the growth stocks (QQQ) short to hedge against correction in cyclical commodities, sorry. NDX went nowhere since mid Feb, while oil is up 20% or so. That doesn't mean tech is cheap, nor that QQQ would rise (again...) when cyclicals crash. but hasn't the narrative been reflation-rotation for a while...? if that simply unwinds - QQQ obviously will outperform. on the other hand, in case of a general risk-off, with multiple compression in the center, you'll do very well. Personally, I see too much risk of NDX catching up first. next week expiry date - not that I would have much data on these things, but wouldn't be the first time that range breakouts come just in time, almost like manipulationgic...
  8. HMB


    with CPI out of the way - finally continuing to price in the blowout Q1 earnings...? ...or simply continuing recent yield rise reversal..? ..was it Minerd who saw the 10 year below 1% in H2? - can't remember right now...
  9. Definitely sell the rip. And certainly also sell the dip.
  10. HMB


    Okay Taylor Riggs, what is it this time? Obviously not earnings - and neither long-term real yield rate of change.
  11. Call this is a biased post - but I hated Bitcoin before I went short - so with this disclosure, let me just repeat some "fundamentals" to add to above math...: imagine you missed the opportunity to take part in the unwinding of the greatest spoof in history... how would you explain that to your grand kids..? In times of drastically increasing climate change concerns, out of lack of trust in their democratic institutions, people of the developed world put their money voluntarily into an unregulated pseudo asset, administered by "miners" who no one knows, which reside mostly in a country run by a totalitarian regime, which already started to shut them down for excessive energy consumption, and with a legal system which is at best obscure to the average Bitcoin "investor", who most likely doesn't even know a single symbol of their language? You couldn't make that up. Masses fooled once again by a conflicted interest bunch who (for more than a decade) have been drawing on the US inflation narrative - while 30 year USD real yields stand at a grotesque seven basis points. Fiat currency debasement - my ****! Congrats to the Coinbase insiders who sold shortly after the IPO.
  12. well, if math says so, let's raise the m**********r...:
  13. 50K might be a too conservative target... any thoughts? 43? 25...?
  14. The 2020 halving seems priced in IMHO...
  15. thanks. the ranges you provide are not symmetric around the previous close - so there is a mean return assumption? (interesting paper - providing some evidence for vol of vol being a return driver - can't see the connection to the risk ranges immediately - except maybe the general insight that the width of the ranges needs to be updated frequently - you "wrote paper I derived this calculation for" - you're one of the authors?
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