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HMB last won the day on November 26 2020

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About HMB

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  1. HMB


    Okay Taylor Riggs, what is it this time? Obviously not earnings - and neither long-term real yield rate of change.
  2. Call this is a biased post - but I hated Bitcoin before I went short - so with this disclosure, let me just repeat some "fundamentals" to add to above math...: imagine you missed the opportunity to take part in the unwinding of the greatest spoof in history... how would you explain that to your grand kids..? In times of drastically increasing climate change concerns, out of lack of trust in their democratic institutions, people of the developed world put their money voluntarily into an unregulated pseudo asset, administered by "miners" who no one knows, which reside mostly in a c
  3. well, if math says so, let's raise the m**********r...:
  4. 50K might be a too conservative target... any thoughts? 43? 25...?
  5. The 2020 halving seems priced in IMHO...
  6. thanks. the ranges you provide are not symmetric around the previous close - so there is a mean return assumption? (interesting paper - providing some evidence for vol of vol being a return driver - can't see the connection to the risk ranges immediately - except maybe the general insight that the width of the ranges needs to be updated frequently - you "wrote paper I derived this calculation for" - you're one of the authors?
  7. ...or those, for that matter? Looks interesting - would be good to understand where they come from
  8. how do you calculate these - if you don't mind..?
  9. ...kinda scary.. not to forget chips - or chip-making machines:
  10. yes, and more the rate of change than the level... (in particular for the more recent real yield move) also, in February until this week spread compression seems to have overcompensated the impact on credit:
  11. Dunno if this means anything...: Marketwatch.com ..any views..? has hitting March's global liquidation low (just) slowed the recent long-end sell-off..?
  12. guess this played some role: and this (maybe to a lesser extent): https://www.yardeni.com/pub/commit.pdf Plus GS and JPM pumping things up with the "supercycle" story. Considering the US situation hopefully gets fixed soon, then I could imagine an unwind of speculative positions (for whatever reason) might trigger a reversal
  13. Obviously this hit my stop today. Staying out for now - waiting till the institutional money has flown in... Actually, think a new NDX narrative might emerge with TSLA intrinsic values etc appreciating with their BTC holdings...
  14. For the sake of completeness some arguments frequently made by the conviction bulls - would be keen to learn what you think on those: valuations outside US and China large cap tech and tech-enabled consumer sectors are not that drastic, and in relation to rates even those segments are priced much more reasonably than 1999 (recent US bear steepening might change that if it continues). Indicators like VIX and Skew (or the legendary CS Fear Barometer) are quite far away from mania seen not so long ago. Wall Street strategists have been relatively bullish, but not excessively (BBG survey).
  15. HMB


    Significant levels between now and 10% higher, anyone...?
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