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HMB last won the day on November 26

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About HMB

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  1. It seems the ECB made impact with the PEPP launched in March, but although its envelope was more than doubled in June, aggregate MFI balance of loans to NFCs didn't move much in Q3: Obviously this confirms the point in the dailyfx piece you refer to regarding importance of fiscal stimulus. Would hence be nice to read an update on status of Next Generation EU ratification. It looks like the PEPP and fiscal emergency measures may have stabilized growth of consumer credit, which accelerated in December, though: ....in spite of tightening lending standards (ECB Q3 bank lending review published Tuesday). PEPP likely supported EZ equities since March, and Lagarde's apparent determination yesterday may have served for the following DAX rebound (250 points, then faded completely). However that PEPP - and all other fiscal and monetary policy measures so far for that matter - were not nearly enough to compensate for the pandemic's impact on the real economy also became obvious in the ECB's "Euro area economic and financial developments by institutional sector: second quarter of 2020" released yesterday: ...DAX today again with 250 points rebound (a bit slower this time): The 2nd virus wave (which was fully anticipated publicly by leading virologists since q1 but for some reason speculators managed to engineer 75% or more retracements across the board and some new ATHs first....), election risk, delays of fiscal stimulus in US and Europe, and stellar Tech valuations will likely be dominating Lagarde's determination: So that yesterday was enough to prevent DAX re-entering the area which it had left so smoothly after the legendary Merkel/Macron announcement is highly doubtful IMHO - and before around 11000 I haven't managed to find significant technical support (the May/June move was just to linear...): Sufficient progress on Next Generation EU ratification I think is highly unlikely this year, maybe summer 2021. All in all expecting more US/Europe selloff before election until focus turns more on stimulus again To come back to the dailyfx piece - this risk-off scenario would be somewhat bullish for USD - until China and others start fearing USD hyper-inflation (improbable). highly interested in counter arguments
  2. Agree. It could go up or down. Or maybe sideways. Depending on circumstances.
  3. HMB


    You mean a system of precisely defined conditions based on observable, quantitative data (for example a purely technical trading system)? Did you not just earlier (rightly) point out that one needs to be careful around news events? And does this not involve a subjective component (judgment) that involves thinking and can only be tested within limits?
  4. HMB


    sure, you are right, maybe I should consider trading only demo for years to come. Or just let it be and live with the (colossal) failure. Been thinking about that, and will keep doing so - and trading with small size for a while might actually convince me to stop. I see value in using trading to develop self-control and other more general skills, though, which may be worth a regular small loss. But there may of course be better ways, or I'm wrong with this completely - haven't made up my mind about that, either, yet. Regarding systems - I think I'm just too far away from that - be it personality, skills or interests. I have a hard time to imagine that I could come up with a set of so clearly defined rules when to enter trades that leave any judgment out of the equation, and then still be profitable. I think if something like that existed, it would have been found by others already and should stop working soon - in particular nowadays with kinda unlimited computing power and AI. And I don't have the skills to compete in that area. For now I'm trying to just avoid mistakes (in particular stick to loss limits) and also be more conscious about what I'm doing (e.g. formulate reasons for entry and targets) - for any system development I guess these would also be very early steps. Monthly loss limit just got hit - back with a new trade in four weeks..!
  5. HMB


    I'm back to live trading, but with small sizes. I need to learn to deal with emotions better, which doesn't work that well in demo (it does a bit though). But now facing having my loss limit almost reached and then having to be able to stop trading for a month, although I think there might be nice opportunities, is an experience I didn't get in demo. Think you are very right regarding continuations vs. reversals, in particular if the short-term trend is down and we are at medium term important levels (or through them) like DAX 12000... Similarly useful assessment I heard, is some prefer trading the middle of the trend, not the beginning or end. need to deeply, emotionally redefine what I perceive as opportunity. I am too contrarian in the short term. Very often too early. But I guess this kind of "behavior re-modelling" will require receiving a few more punches - target for now is to keep them smaller, no matter what. Maybe I move to ETFs for now - wider spreads, but a bit smaller minimum opening sizes.
  6. HMB


    stop hit again... the strategy with betting on short-term pre-market rebounds with tight stops at weak support levels just doesn't work. likely it's gonna rebound on some point, but if that's from -2% or -2.8% I definitely don't know another lesson (which I'll again try to learn...) ...it's really about avoiding bad habits, isn't it. amazing how unable to do that I seem to be
  7. HMB


    ..there you go..
  8. HMB


    no new on low (yet...) on the Europe lockdown news..:
  9. HMB


    ok, last try - using my own post above as counter indicator...::
  10. HMB


    stop hit again of course. guess one to let play out for now.
  11. HMB


    mean... drop just below the overnight low on bar closing news... stop hit, re-opened, as move seemed to halt..:
  12. HMB


    FT story on Apple building own search engine due to antitrust issues serving as trigger for overdue rebound ahead of more FANG earnings..? https://on.ft.com/2HGpulG (gift link, can be used thrice, you're welcome... )
  13. HMB


    ...11% or so below post-outbreak high... support around 12300-12350 couldn't stop the SAP move... then high below that... however complete undoing of overnight move to 12050 (or even 12200) and it would still be well in a pretty fast down-trend... some signs of bottoming at current levels... expecting slight rebound around the open, if that happens, and no more significant up move then, will likely close the trade at wherever it stabilizes in the very short term... also maybe useful to keep the composition in mind from time to time...: