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Everything posted by HMB

  1. HMB


    Okay Taylor Riggs, what is it this time? Obviously not earnings - and neither long-term real yield rate of change.
  2. Call this is a biased post - but I hated Bitcoin before I went short - so with this disclosure, let me just repeat some "fundamentals" to add to above math...: imagine you missed the opportunity to take part in the unwinding of the greatest spoof in history... how would you explain that to your grand kids..? In times of drastically increasing climate change concerns, out of lack of trust in their democratic institutions, people of the developed world put their money voluntarily into an unregulated pseudo asset, administered by "miners" who no one knows, which reside mostly in a c
  3. well, if math says so, let's raise the m**********r...:
  4. 50K might be a too conservative target... any thoughts? 43? 25...?
  5. The 2020 halving seems priced in IMHO...
  6. thanks. the ranges you provide are not symmetric around the previous close - so there is a mean return assumption? (interesting paper - providing some evidence for vol of vol being a return driver - can't see the connection to the risk ranges immediately - except maybe the general insight that the width of the ranges needs to be updated frequently - you "wrote paper I derived this calculation for" - you're one of the authors?
  7. ...or those, for that matter? Looks interesting - would be good to understand where they come from
  8. how do you calculate these - if you don't mind..?
  9. ...kinda scary.. not to forget chips - or chip-making machines:
  10. yes, and more the rate of change than the level... (in particular for the more recent real yield move) also, in February until this week spread compression seems to have overcompensated the impact on credit:
  11. Dunno if this means anything...: Marketwatch.com ..any views..? has hitting March's global liquidation low (just) slowed the recent long-end sell-off..?
  12. guess this played some role: and this (maybe to a lesser extent): https://www.yardeni.com/pub/commit.pdf Plus GS and JPM pumping things up with the "supercycle" story. Considering the US situation hopefully gets fixed soon, then I could imagine an unwind of speculative positions (for whatever reason) might trigger a reversal
  13. Obviously this hit my stop today. Staying out for now - waiting till the institutional money has flown in... Actually, think a new NDX narrative might emerge with TSLA intrinsic values etc appreciating with their BTC holdings...
  14. For the sake of completeness some arguments frequently made by the conviction bulls - would be keen to learn what you think on those: valuations outside US and China large cap tech and tech-enabled consumer sectors are not that drastic, and in relation to rates even those segments are priced much more reasonably than 1999 (recent US bear steepening might change that if it continues). Indicators like VIX and Skew (or the legendary CS Fear Barometer) are quite far away from mania seen not so long ago. Wall Street strategists have been relatively bullish, but not excessively (BBG survey).
  15. HMB


    Significant levels between now and 10% higher, anyone...?
  16. Yes, high probability of further inflows. Morgan Stanley, and Dalio reportedly considering some - among others. Agree that this might as well quadruple BTC to hit Minerd's expectation. Nevertheless, I see huge downside risks - e.g. regulatory, not least due to the waste of energy. I doubt there will be significant, lasting consumer-price inflation in the foreseeable future - I'm with Powell on that. We'll have more asset-price inflation, more hunt for yield - and Bitcoin doesn't provide any, or as Grantham put it, the value of Bitcoin's future discounted cash flows is nil. Plus,
  17. finally shorting this mother of all ponzis. whole freakin' world struggling with finding answers to climate change, and the world's richest owner of a company that wouldn't be profitable without selling carbon credits, and TARP-rescued BNYM, got nothing better to do then to fire up this to-the-scale-of-a-mid-sized-country energy-consuming bubble in a pseudo-replacement of the global payment system? as if bank transfers were the issue of our financial architecture...? there's a bit too much fantasy priced into this bitc(h) of a rip(ple)-off after recent run for my taste. and maybe resis
  18. What are you guys doing these days for hedging long risk exposures...? listening to Druckenmiller, Grantham, etc., kinda scared me. ok, there's Shiller, with his ECY highlighting equities are relatively attractive (compared to bonds), but that's about the only fundamental metric I know not screamingly suggesting to sell... plus long yields are rising... still, all recent dips got bought quickly and followed by new ATHs... and some are talking confidently about (more) liquidity-driven melt-up... And technically: maybe this week was it with consolidation for now, but I have no idea wher
  19. Hi, it seems that the direct (private) messaging function in the IG Community has disappeared - is this correct? Please let us/me know. Best
  20. Hi, yesterday I opened a long position in a forward on the Direxion Moonshot Innovators ETF (ticker: MOON). Today I tried to add an additional long position in this ETF. A message was displayed, stating that "the instrument is not available for leveraged trading". That seems to be a new restriction? Will it be permanent or only temporary? Will my position still be rolled at expiry? Please let me/us know. Best
  21. If you use the futures and not the DFBs, you have no overnight funding fees. However futures get rolled at expiry, when you pay the spread. The way I understand this is that for example for SPX it's 1 point - four times a year, or roughly 0.1% of your exposure in total, but please confirm with IG client services, there may be an additional spread (like they have when you let contracts expire - see https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/what-are-igs-indices-spread-bet-product-details, note 4 ii). If you're a retail client, you'll have to ma
  22. good question - footnote 11 here gives (only) a high-level answer: https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/what-are-igs-indices-spread-bet-product-details ...it refers to their commodity pricing method - which I think is described here: https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/how-are-spot-commodities-priced--and-how-is-my-overnight-funding ...which would be consistent with what you said - some kind of average between 1st and 2nd nearest contract price
  23. ...short... Texas hedge for long RTY...
  24. HMB


    small long RTY - with GME, AMC etc. weights in the index now back to more reasonable levels, it might attract less speculative money again..
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