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Everything posted by HMB

  1. I will not engage in this discussion further. This is too much responsibility for me, sorry. You should discuss this with someone who truly knows you - I suggest your parents or similar. Not joking, no matter your age. Also speak with experienced traders and try to listen. But you likely won't. And in ten years you will likely write a similar response as I'm doing now. DON'T INCREASE SIZE TO MAKE UP FOR LOSSES - THIS IS THE MOST DANGEROUS MISTAKE YOU CAN MAKE! It's about letting profitable trades run, and cutting losses early, so that you are with a low win rate still profitable I hope for others in this forum to support me here. But I'm out. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
  2. This is the only thing I know without doubt about trading: trying to make up for losses with larger trades is the way to ruin with certainty. Read you own post again and ask what it would imply: if you can't make money with a small risk, you take a larger risk. And what if that goes wrong? Of course - double up. And then it fails again..? Then you're walking to the bank to ask for a consumer loan... Please read that "cold" warning about 76% of traders "encountering losses" again - and try to add some imagination to it. Try to imagine ruin with all its consequences. And then ask yourself how people got to that point.
  3. I did. It led to catastrophe. Read my 2nd post on this site. If I could start again, I'd NEVER increase size as a reaction to a loss.
  4. As you know I posted some trades in recent months as well (both real and demo), and I appreciate your doing so. However, I also understand everyone who doesn't, and am undecided about how to handle this in the future myself - mainly because I think once you make your trades public, you encounter additional issues that can distract you from the target: making money for your own account. Some of these issues are: you might suddenly feel responsible for people who may have acted on your post. Then you might realize you haven't posted the full story, because you had (maybe subconsciously) a back-up plan for when the trade doesn't work, which you didn't share. Also, the market environment may just change to a (not with any likelihood anticipated) point that it makes sense to close the trade early, or keeping it open but adding an additional position in your portfolio which hedges that trade partially. The initial stop may suddenly seem too close to an important level that got established in the meantime and you move it just a bit. etc. In summary, unless your approach implies doing absolutely nothing with the trade until it reaches its a priori defined fixed exit level (or stop) and considering it always in isolation, you'd end up posting frequent updates of your full (dynamically changing) portfolio strategy and follow-up posting on existing trades. in the extreme you become like those guys...:
  5. ...thanks to SPACs, record IPOS...: source: https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/swimming-with-the-target-date-whale/
  6. HMB


    "Funds have pulled back from one of the biggest short positions in U.S. tech stocks in over a decade, in a near-record buying spree of Nasdaq futures, CFTC data from last week showed." ... "The QQQ has reached $144.65 billion in assets under management, a record high, according to data from Lipper." ... "The ratio of call options relative to put options, a measure of how bullish traders are, has climbed since late September and is close to the peak reached just before the sell-off that month." ... "Interest in call options for companies such as Apple Inc AAPL.O, Facebook Inc FB.O and Netflix Inc NFLX.O - members of the market-leading group collectively known as FAANG - has especially climbed in recent weeks. Skew, a measure of demand for puts versus calls, is near its lowest levels over the past year for those companies, according to Trade Alert" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-options-tech/bulls-are-back-in-the-nasdaq-and-options-are-aflutter-idUSKBN2742FJ
  7. ...some numbers on obvious developments... (BBG): "Average U.S. household spending this holiday season is expected to decrease 7% from 2019, with a sharp 34% drop in travel spending accounting for most of the decrease, according to Rod Sides, a Deloitte vice chairman. Some of the money normally spent away from home will go toward non-gift purchases, like home furnishings and seasonal decor." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/retailers-revel-as-stuff-not-experiences-makes-a-comeback
  8. hold till... you need the money?
  9. thanks - will check out the forum and Dante's posts on twitter and youtube
  10. ..seems not exactly what Nicola Duke said ("compete with yourself, cooperate with others")... (https://chatwithtraders.libsyn.com/rss, around min. 38)
  11. HMB


    trying out third oder pivots as defined by Adam H. Grimes (https://adamhgrimes.com/library/market-structure/)..: a short entered after it became clear (with the open of the candle starting 4 pm Wednesday) that the Tuesday NQ high was a third order pivot on the one hour chart would be in profit - however, no exit signal, yet, correct me if I'm wrong...: black arrows: 1st order "Grimes pivots", blue: 2nd order, yellow: 3rd order (first order pivots only marked if relevant to establish 2nd order pivots) (maybe this can be fine-tuned by distinguishing by the the extent of pullbacks, or direction vs direction of a higher level trend..)
  12. HMB


    ...leading (to concentration..) everywhere... even in the boring CS sector - six US companies >30% of global market cap... (and two of them make identical soft drinks...)
  13. HMB


    sorry this is nonsense of course - long-term average US equity returns, not SPX
  14. HMB


    I've seen studies coming to the conclusion that it doesn't matter much - but like all studies, they are limited. leverage will likely change everything. I tend to agree with you, and maybe there is some value one can add with timing - by strict cost averaging or some other approach (I obviously haven't managed to do that, yet). yes, think there are also studies pointing to long-term S&P 500 returns basically consisting mostly of dividends. however, I wanted to stress another conclusion, related to your next comment: think my previous post came after yours, so repeating a part here: i.e. as you say "bastion of Western civilization" - because of the strength of the (aggregate) US consumer... but also due to frequent innovation of technologies triggering changes in consumer behavior. cultural factors may play a role, too - importance of fashion, materialism... etc. this could be interesting to monitor as well, maybe it changes (history would suggest not...)
  15. HMB


    ...looking at this vs. rest of the asset world (see earlier posts in other sections): it seems all that matters in capitalism is change in consumer behavior enabled by technological progress; wars and other destructive episodes cause only temporary shifts; same for global convergence of standards of living - by definition. indices like NDX (i.e. portfolios with automated replacement of defaulted companies..) that are underweight mature industries (i.e. industries with high level of competition or highly regulated industries like traditional energy, utilities, materials and financials) will always outperform (broader indices) in the long run. thoughts?
  16. HMB


    flat over 17 years
  17. HMB


    flat over 9 years or so
  18. HMB


    flat over 16 years
  19. HMB


    Flat over 13 years
  20. HMB


    Sorry for bothering with the "post storm" on the rest of the world the last 20 minutes or so. Just kinda overwhelmed by the realization I may have missed out (just a lil' bit) with a diversified contrarian value approach... All these dramas in between - GFC, Euro crisis, Arab Spring, Russian invasions, Brexit, Trade Wars, QE, QE, QE, QT, QE, GVC, QQQE....:
  21. 1.2% p.a. 😐 😶
  22. 22 years flat