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HMB

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Everything posted by HMB

  1. It seems the ECB made impact with the PEPP launched in March, but although its envelope was more than doubled in June, aggregate MFI balance of loans to NFCs didn't move much in Q3: Obviously this confirms the point in the dailyfx piece you refer to regarding importance of fiscal stimulus. Would hence be nice to read an update on status of Next Generation EU ratification. It looks like the PEPP and fiscal emergency measures may have stabilized growth of consumer credit, which accelerated in December, though: ....in spite of tightening lending standards (ECB Q3 ban
  2. Agree. It could go up or down. Or maybe sideways. Depending on circumstances.
  3. HMB

    DAX

    You mean a system of precisely defined conditions based on observable, quantitative data (for example a purely technical trading system)? Did you not just earlier (rightly) point out that one needs to be careful around news events? And does this not involve a subjective component (judgment) that involves thinking and can only be tested within limits?
  4. HMB

    DAX

    sure, you are right, maybe I should consider trading only demo for years to come. Or just let it be and live with the (colossal) failure. Been thinking about that, and will keep doing so - and trading with small size for a while might actually convince me to stop. I see value in using trading to develop self-control and other more general skills, though, which may be worth a regular small loss. But there may of course be better ways, or I'm wrong with this completely - haven't made up my mind about that, either, yet. Regarding systems - I think I'm just too far away from that - be
  5. HMB

    DAX

    I'm back to live trading, but with small sizes. I need to learn to deal with emotions better, which doesn't work that well in demo (it does a bit though). But now facing having my loss limit almost reached and then having to be able to stop trading for a month, although I think there might be nice opportunities, is an experience I didn't get in demo. Think you are very right regarding continuations vs. reversals, in particular if the short-term trend is down and we are at medium term important levels (or through them) like DAX 12000... Similarly useful assessment I heard, is some p
  6. HMB

    DAX

    stop hit again... the strategy with betting on short-term pre-market rebounds with tight stops at weak support levels just doesn't work. likely it's gonna rebound on some point, but if that's from -2% or -2.8% I definitely don't know another lesson (which I'll again try to learn...) ...it's really about avoiding bad habits, isn't it. amazing how unable to do that I seem to be
  7. HMB

    NDX

    no new on low (yet...) on the Europe lockdown news..:
  8. HMB

    DAX

    ok, last try - using my own post above as counter indicator...::
  9. HMB

    DAX

    stop hit again of course. guess one to let play out for now.
  10. HMB

    DAX

    mean... drop just below the overnight low on bar closing news... stop hit, re-opened, as move seemed to halt..:
  11. HMB

    NDX

    FT story on Apple building own search engine due to antitrust issues serving as trigger for overdue rebound ahead of more FANG earnings..? https://on.ft.com/2HGpulG (gift link, can be used thrice, you're welcome... )
  12. HMB

    DAX

    ...11% or so below post-outbreak high... support around 12300-12350 couldn't stop the SAP move... then high below that... however complete undoing of overnight move to 12050 (or even 12200) and it would still be well in a pretty fast down-trend... some signs of bottoming at current levels... expecting slight rebound around the open, if that happens, and no more significant up move then, will likely close the trade at wherever it stabilizes in the very short term... also maybe useful to keep the composition in mind from time to time...:
  13. HMB

    NDX

    "Intel move" 100% retraced...
  14. HMB

    NDX

    ...looks almost like they found a way to cheat the algos...: buy the dip, see if there's a rebound, and if yes, come out with a no-deal-yet comment, to buy more after the subsequent dip...:
  15. HMB

    NDX

    if this was the "sell-off" because Nancy "dug in", then I don't think the market was really expecting a pre-election deal
  16. "Markets are there to keep us humble." K. Foulathi think what you describe is exactly what he meant... personally, I'm at the stage of drawing funny oval shapes on my charts - maybe this way I'll notice something, some day...:
  17. HMB

    NDX

    using the "Grimes-pivots" the same way as before (see above posts Monday - Wednesday) would now give a buy signal (time zone UK):
  18. thanks - the regulated digital currency theme is interesting, I think as usual I'm late in trying to understand it... but it seems to have a long-term potential of further changing our financial system fundamentally (that would deserve a separate thread, maybe..?) - no more bank run worries, no more quarter end repo rate spikes, negative deposit rates could be ruled out... haven't thought this through at all. will try to find some accessible analysis on use and risks...
  19. HMB

    NDX

    at this stage, no I would not (more below). for reasons given above (and others) I do however think this is simply the market segment where the action is for now, in both directions, and hence my current focus yes, reading it the same. there are a few major issues pending: antitrust suit, election... which may be holding NDX down for now. Valuations are ginormous, correction risk is massive at any point IMHO. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NDAQ/nasdaq/price-sales Nevertheless, I still think expectations of further changing consumer behavior and growth
  20. couldn't have timed it better! care to share what made you close it?
  21. Watching the 2nd debate - I don't get the polls anymore. And I don't get the democrats' strategy. Out of the zillion potential, powerful attack points, they choose to focus fully on the 200K US virus deaths - as if Biden could have prevented any of those. I doubt that any serious, impartial virologist would support this campaign strategy, but I may be wrong (again). The polls don't make sense to me at all anymore: people are craving for return to normal, Trump's message is let's return to normal, Biden's is plastic cubes in restaurants and masks in schools, and he leads the polls by a
  22. HMB

    NDX

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/when-performance-matters%3A-nasdaq-100-vs.-sp-500-second-quarter-20-2020-07-13 should look similar with GICS - i.e. NDX underweight (vs SPX)to Financials (incl. RE), Energy, Materials and Utilities together roughly 25%... and those went kinda nowhere over the more or less recent past...: ...of course this is rather superficial, but (together with comparisons posted earlier) suggests really exactly two - closely linked - segments in global asset markets have been trending (up) recent years: US large cap tech
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