skyreach
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Posts posted by skyreach
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MANKIND;S DISEASE?
WHAT IS IT THAT MAKES TOP OFFICIALS IN RESPONSIBLE POSITIONS NOT SEE THE TRUE FACTS OR HAPPENINGS THAT TAKE PLACE BUT ARE ADVERSE IN EFFECT?
IS IT JUST A VESTED INTEREST COMING IN THE WAY SO THEY FUDGE THE KEY DEFINITIONS AND ANY THEORIES OR ANY RESULTS OF SOME FINDINGS TO FUDGE IN TURN THE FINAL RESULTS OR CONCLUSIONS?
OR, IS IT THAT THEY ARE VERY POOR OBSERVERS OF THE PHENOMENA TAKING PLACE IN THE FIRST PLACE?
OR, THEY LIKE TO PUT A SPIN IN THE WHOLE AFFAIR TO MAKE THEM SELF LOOK GOOD TO OTHERS FOR THEIR OWN PR VALUE AND TO CLIMB UP THE POSITION LEVELS OR RICHNESS LEVELS?
WHATEVER THE COMBINATIONS OF ABOVE, THEY ALL SEEM TO PLAY A PART. IT DOES NO GOOD TO THEM IN THE END, AS WELL AS THE REST OF US AT ALL TIMES.
IT IS LIKE, IN EFFECT, A SINKING "SHIP£ THAT WE ARE ALL IN, CAUSED BY RECKLESS BEHAVIOUR AT THE TOP AND MISJUDGEMENTS AND THE "SHIP" AND ALL ON BOARD WILL SINK, WITH NO ONE THERE TO COME TO RESCUE US AT ALL.
ARE SOME PEOPLE AT THE TOP THAT DESTRUCTIVE FOR THE GREATER GOOD OF MANAGING THE RUNNING OF THE "SHIP"?
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FORBES COUNCILS ANALYSIS COMMENT
DEBT IS NOT A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD AS IS FIXATED IN THE MINDS OF MANY WHO HAVE BEEN INTROVERTED IN THIS GAME.
DEBT MANAGEMENT IS NOT DEPENDABLE ON INTEREST RATES OR INFLATION OR ARTIFICIAL PUSH FOR GROWTH AT ANY COST. THOSE ARE FACTORS THAT PLAY A PART AS A SECONDARY SET OF ACTIONS.
LEVERAGED DEBT HAS ALWAYS LOOKING BACK AT HISTORY EVERY TIME BEEN A TIME BOMB WAITING TO GO OFF, OR IS SOMETHING THAT BECOMES TRIPPED.
GENUINE ECONOMIC GROWTH DEPENDS ON ALL ORGANISATIONS, COMPANIES, BANKS, INVESTMENT ENTITIES, GOVERNMENTS, ETC... MANAGING THEIR ORGANIC GROWTH BY FULFILLING THE ACTUAL NEEDS AND WANTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES. DEBT MANAGEMENT AND CASH FLOW ARE OF CRITICAL APPLICATION IN THE GOOD HEALTHY RUNNING OF ANY ORGANISATION.
IF A CRISIS OF UNCHECKED DEBTS HAS BEEN DELIBERATELY ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THEN THAT LEADS TO A ROAD OF RUINS.
CHINA IS THE LATEST EXAMPLE TO JOIN THIS CLUB OF EXTREMELY EXCESSIVE DEBTS BUBBLE AS THE WEST AS DONE TIME AFTER TIME AFTER TIME. REALLY, NO LESSONS HAVE BE LEARNT (OR FORGOTTEN).
IT IS EASY TO BE WISE AFTER THE FACT. SO WHO MISSED THE CORRECT EVALUATION OF THE ACTUAL SCENE IN THE PRESENT AND HENCE THE CORRECT SOLUTIONS?
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The highly troubled real estate giant with over $300 billion in liabilities is at risk of becoming China's biggest ever default. There are a few other big Chinese developers in the same boat. IT IS A QUESTION OF WHEN? IN A FEW WEEKS OR SEVERAL SEVERAL WEEKS?
China is in a huge debt bubble, as the West, encouraged by FED POLICIES, particularly other central banks have been encouraged and pushed to follow the model as if that would "solve" the world's economic problems.
We have been here before many times over the many decades. It seems no lessons of the past were permanently put in place to place or the true WHYs not established and adhered to.
Should it go wrong then those in charge are responsible and should have to pay for the financial mess to follow, including the banks themselves.
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WOW!!! THAT INTERVIEW BY RFK IS A REVELATION OF THE TRUTH.
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WHO - NOT FIT FOR THE JOB?
COVID VARIANTS ARE LIKE THE FLU. EACH YEAR A NEW STRAIN WILL EMERGE .
WHO is quick to jump to hype when in fact they should monitor and keep under control the new type that was in Africa. Have protocols placed more effectively. HANDLE IT SOURCE.
THE WHO SUPPRESSED MUCH INFO AS PER MKC86;S QUOTE:
"As before, so now, so in the future. A blast from the past!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/jun/04/swine-flu-experts-big-pharmaceutical "THE WHO FAILED TO HANDLE CHINA ORIGINALLY TOO, AND ITS CEO WAS PHRASING THE CHINESE LEADER INSTEAD OF GETTING FULL ACCESS OF THE ORIGIN OF COVID THERE AT THE BEGINNING, NOT MUCH LATER IN TIME WHEN THE EVIDENCE IS DESTROYED. NOT AN EFFECTIVE LEADER OF WHO.
BESIDES NO COUNTRY OR THR WHO EVER FINED OR MADE CHINA RESPONSIBLE AND PAY THE WORLD TOWARDS THIS DISASTER.
I DARE SAY MORE WILL COME OUT IN THE FUTURE, BUT THAT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR COUNTRIES THAT STOCK PILED AND NO ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS.
OH, GOVERNMENTS (POLITICIANS & KEY CIVIL SERVANTS) ARE TO BLAME FOR NOT RESEARCHING ALTERNATIVES., E.G.,
And traditional head / nose / chest steam taking.
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The Evidence countering covid variants prescriptions?
As members have posted above:
"(mRNA) is brand new technology and there were bound to have been some mistakes."
"Israelis' have had enough of this nonsense, booster uptake levelling off at 46% as govt talks about a 4th shot".
"Follow the Money.
''Omicron variant 'made €9bn in week for top Pfizer and Moderna shareholders' 'lucy johnston @thelucyjohnston".
WHAT IS GOING? IT PAINTS A BAD PICTURE OF VESTED INTERESTS MAKING A HUGE PUSH AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF GETTING MONEY OUT OUT GOVERNMENTS THROUGH FEAR AND HELL IS ABOUT BREAK OUT MANTRA!!!
AND ODDER STILL IS HOW NO ALTERNATIVE MEDICINE IS EVER CONSIDERED THAT DOES & USE TO WORK IN PAST AGES WHEN IT WAS USED WITH WORKABILITY. IT COULD HAVE BEEN STATED AND USED IN ADDITION TO THE DRUG BASED PRESCRIPTIONS.
SOMEONE TOLD ME THAT THERE IS A LAW TO THE EFFECT THAT YOU CANNOT SAY YOU CAN CURE ANYTHING IN THE USA. IT WAS PASSED LONG AGO TO STOP ALTERNATIVE THERAPIES AND HERBAL PRACTICES FROM USING THAT STATEMENT. HOWEVER IF THAT IS TRUE THEN IT ALSO MEANS THAT ANY DRUG BASED MEDICINE CANNOT CURE BUT ONLY RECEDE ANY CONDITION (but only apparently). IF THE ALTERNATIVES DID THAT THEN MANY GOT BIG FINES OR WERE CLOSED DOWN ON SOME PRETEXT AFTER THE IRS COMING DOWN ON THEM. DOES ANYONE KNOW ANYTHING ON THIS?
GREED KNOWS NO BOUND.
ALL COMPANIES HAVE THEIR VESTED INTEREST. OFCOURSE THAT DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN IT USED NEGATIVELY BY ALL COMPANIES, BUT SOME WILL.
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As the The Guardian report shows:
"Scientists who drew up the key World Health Organisation guidelines advising governments to stockpile drugs in the event of a flu pandemic had previously been paid by drug companies which stood to profit, according to a report out today."
Big pharmas are laughing all the way to the bank for free trillions they will earn and have been exempt from any law cases should any drug be a problem, especially by the normal bypass of the trial phases to proof of concept.
What ever happened to our parents and grandparents generations who used the HEAD steam by covering the head by a towel with the face breath hot air to kill off bacteria or viruses that would be in the nose, throat or chest. It is done for 15-30 minutes per day. It handles any cold or flu or other similar conditions, and it is still used in various parts of the world. But ofcourse there is no profit in that so why encourage it, uhh?
The media loves sensationalism, exaggerating, generalising and negative bias when it need not be per facts. This is the norm for most media types. They know that people react to them and naively accept what they say, or should i say that is how it use to be. But more and more people are waking up to this type of hype used by PR departments of Pharmas and even the Financial industries. So they will continue these habits until the public turns against it one day.
Whatever happened to the objective reporting and investigating that would take place before reporting of decades ago, without much of the above bad habits? Or is there other motives that we have not considered?
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Gravestone Doji
Nice article presented on the S&P500 Doji.
S&P 500 looks to have formed a gravestone Doji last trade day of November
"Wall Street bankers and traders are in line for the biggest bonus increases since 2009"
Margin trading by professionals is at extreme high -- highest in history. Each time that occurred , e.g, 200 & 2007 we sooner or a little later got a BIG CRASH, followed by a recession Many in the markets are aware of this.
So, it is a wonder: when is the next major crash?
Any predictions anyone?
Secondly, why do the bankers / traders pay out huge bonuses instead of putting it to reserves for a rainy day, to cope the storms of a market crash? Afterall, they all should know crashes do occur cyclically.
Thirdly, Traders all know that disciple and money management is all important but they do not truly apply this to their own business management. Despite all the complex Risk management software they have they seem to become a cropper on every major crash. With risk taking at extreme high the signs are on the wall.
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PONZI SCHEME 2
The articleD by Kevin Stankiewicz makes an interesting point and the definition he points out is ALSO true, in my view.
"Ponzi scheme is a type of fraud whereby crooks steal money from investors and mask the theft by funneling returns to clients from funds contributed by newer investors."
But taking it as it is then we can apply it to various other areas, seemingly.
FOR EXAMPLE:
Q.E. encourages and creates greater and greater debt build up, and entraps all financially into over debtedness, as encouraged by the Monetary Theory used by the FED. In the end it collapses and various clever but complex solutions are advised by the same people who used flawed theories as being gospel truth. A financial nuclear bomb gone off, markets crashes big time, a recession or depression ensues. All suffer. The flaws in the system are ignored or not recognised, during the frency of making a billions in profit. So, we have a roller coaster system.
Majority of companies and millions of people who were not involved in it suffer AND THE COUNTRY'S TAXPAYER HAS TO PAY FOR it ALL THOSE SUBSIDES THAT THE GOVERNMENTS ARE ADVISED TO DO (PLAUSIBLE REASONS USED ). It becomes covert stealing by funneling indebted businesses and banks who's debts get shifted to the central banking system or by tax write offs so effectively charging the government, by "professional" advise, to take on toxic debts to "save" the economy and the system from "collapsing", and the politicians from losing popularity or the Office.
Now, as reported in the media, a Debt Jubilee is being considered as a "solution". It has been used is past history too. But it did NOT WORK IN THE PAST AS WE HAVE ENDED UP WITH A SIMILAR PROBLEM NOW.
Those who have studied the financial history and John Law and the "Mississippi Scheme and bubble, and the "South Sea Bubble" that was in the similar time using his idea gives rise to out current system.
The Banking System was supposed to be a fractional system where a portion of income from depositors is supposed to be used for lending. Today this has been made extremely complex by lending x amount and this end product is again it is used as a derivative. Risk taking has gone in a frency. It just needs a major collapse, to create a falling domino effect.
So, the question comes back to: WHAT IS A PONZI SCHEME?
AND WHO RECOGNISES THE PRIMARY CAUSE, THE WHY OF THE WHOLE SITUATION IN THE PRACTICE OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS. FOR GOOD RULES AND GUIDELINES OF PAST GENERATIONS HAVE BEEN OVER LOOKED.
CAN ANYONE FIGURE THOSE OUT?
“I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only make them think”
“Strong minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, weak minds discuss people.”
― Socrates -
BITCOIN A PONZI?
"A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors. A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam which generates returns for earlier investors with money taken from later investors. This is similar to a pyramid scheme in that both are based on using new investors' funds to pay the earlier backers
Both Ponzi schemes and pyramid schemes eventually bottom out when the flood of new investors dries up and there isn't enough money to go around. At that point, the schemes unravel."
Ref. INVESTOPEDIA
Money is something backed by confidence. It is a medium of exchange and can be represented by gold, silver, paper money value, digital tokens, coupons, etc... whatever a group or society agrees to use.
It goes wrong when it is corruptly used or abused in its defined use and people lose confidence in it as it loses value or the trust in it is broken.
Dollar is paper money (fiat) that was backed by gold once and its value remained relatively stable. Once the gold link was banned the Dollar being the world reserve currency was the link for all countries to value. But, central banker (FED) policies since 1913 have, over time, devalued the purchasing value of the Dollar by about 80%. Dollar rate against other currencies is a battle of each country seeking to make its currency more valuable. The true way to make a currency valuable involves the proper handling of the economic factors creating goods & services that are needed and exchangeable with others and nations. However some of the factors get manipulated or get based on improper evaluations and a false economy can be operated partially.
Paper money has been abused in its use by many nations and resulted in disasters only because of artificial manipulation of that currency instead of using the actual production and selling of goods and services that naturally and stably maintains an economy.
Now, is Bitcoin a medium of exchange?
YES. More and more companies are using it. Bankers are planning various types of digital products and eventually to control all cryptos as they hate it if it is NOT under their control and manipulation (for good or bad as in a vested interest form).
The share price of cryptos can go up or down in accordance to its supply and demand of the shares. Just like any other shares, commodities, etc...
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Change of volume and momentum moves on the monthly to daily prices give a general indication of likely longer term future.
Some think most markets have peaked viewing the existing total amount of borrowed money for investing because they think it is a no brainer and prudent rules go out of the window. The professionals have borrowed levels is at highest ever. This has been the precursor to bear markets.
When it starts, who can say? Anyone knows?
Also new public and other investors go into the market in its last stages. That is when some big professionals start to sell off, hence the big volatility moves in the markets. Some plausible public event / political event or an immediate negative drama unfolds is used to justify in the media why the sell off. The pattern is the same every time.
Volatility increases , down huge amount, then up again, as the market makers have an agreed average sell price for their big clients. You cannot sell a huge quantity without the rest of the market sitting still, they sell into it too. So the price will go back up and more sell offs at the higher levels. What happens after that depends on the general market's mood.
Lot of people, in the frenzy, think "the markets will ALWAYS GO UP AFTER A FALL / CORRECTION. But there comes a point it will not. Still the players HOPE that it will go back up. Always investors usually experience sometime in their trading life.
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Markets often do this type of tactic. Some big sellers take advantage and sell big.
Late, hours to days, the market heads back up.
This has been the usual thing..... until ..... the merry go round stops. Then the market will crash.
Question is how far a drop now and far far back up, in time rof Santa's rally?
COULD WE EXPECT A MAJOR CRASH IN 2022?
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We seem to be at VERY important junction.
Yes, to some degree of control over Inflation is required. The FED & the BoE have failed to keep inflation to about its 2% average.
In fact as the Office for National Statistics clearly shows that from February to May a steep rise was taking place (to above 2%). And it has continued to do do overall. The expectation is that the re-start of the economy from covid will average out. CPI is 4.2% & RPI is 6% , in the UK. Similar problems in the USA.
Some say HEY, Hyperinflation. The Fed says inflation should come lower, wait and see.
WHAT IS MISSED?
FACT: Hyperinflation has been taking place for a decade plus. Few realised it. IT IS IN THE HYPERINFLATED ASSET PRICES. SHORT-TERM PLANNING AND GREED HAVE A GOOD WAY TO ENTRAP THE LONGER TERM FINANCIAL HEALTH SURVIVAL OF ANY COUNTRY.
FACT: WHAT IS NOT FULLED RECOGNISED BY MANY IS THE HIGHEST EVER DEBTS BUILT UP IN HISTORY, BY COMPANIES, GOVERNMENTS AND INDIVIDUALS. OH, SURE, THE FED AND THE BoE IS AWARE OF IT AND CONSIDERS A DEBT WRITE OFFs, POSSIBLY IN THE FUTURE (AS HAS BEEN DONE IN PAST HISTORY) BUT ALL THIS UNBALANCES THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY AND THE ECONOMY - AND NOT TO FORGET THE LIVELIHOOD OF MILLIONS.
We seem to have our attention off the FACT that someone has to pay for all the debts created, one way or another.
ILLUSTRATION: Grroup A creates huge debts, get a subsidy in some form, the central bank takes it toxic debts off its shoulder so GROUP A then continues to practice its old bad habit practices until more new debts is built up.
Or GROUP A gets to write off its losses against tax payments (indirect subsidies) - a great existing legal setup - so the government has less income as a result.
Or GROUP A GETS BOUGHT OUT BY A BIGGER GROUP called BIG. WHY, THEY WILL SHOULDER THIS DEBTS AND CLAIM ITS ASSETS and they can write off against taxes too. Isn't indirect subsidies fun!!! Free money courtsey of the government law.
Well I could give more examples but WHAT IS MISSED IS THE DEBT TIME BOMB.
FACT: THOSE WHO TOOK ON EXCESS DEBTS ARE NOT PENALISED AND TOLD THAT THEIR PERFORMANCE WAS EXTREMELY BAD AND COST HUGE AMOUNT TO THE GOOD WORKINGS OF THE ECONOMY OF THE COMPANY, AND THE GENERAL ECONOMY. SO GO TO JAIL AN D OR ARE BANNED FROM PRACTISING IN THAT FIELD AGAIN.
AND NOTE: NO POLICING ACTIONS TO PREVENT THAT IS EVER CONSIDERED ANYWHERE. Whatever regulating bodies that exist are either powerless in law or have a different mission and so "fail" to see the consequences ahead or to handle it. In the aftermath all wonder WHAT WENT WRONG?.
TO SOLVE A PROBLEM IN TRUTH MEANS THAT A SOLUTION PROVIDED WILL CREATE A GOOD BALANCED OUTCOME, NOT A DESTRUCTIVE MAYHEM AFTERWARDS. THE LATTER take away peoples money who were not responsible for CREATING THAT MESS BECAUSE OF THE LAWS THAT ALLOW indirectly via tax system operations MONEY CONFISCATIONS.
PAST SOLUTIONS BY THE SAME PEOPLE WHO REALLY FAILED TO SOLVE "IT" CANNOT BEEN SEEM TO BE GOOD MODELS TO FOLLOW AS IT WILL NOT GIVE RISE TO ANY BETTER SOLUTIONS IN THE FUTURE. --- ISN'T THAT WHY ALL COMPANIES MEASURE THE PERFORMANCE OF INDIVIDUALS IN COMPANIES?
WHY CAN WE THEN NOT MEASURE THE PERFORMANCE OF COMPANIES AND THEIR CHIEFS?
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Thank you for your knowledge.
I read up on Gann. There is a lot out there.
VERY INTERESTING. IT WORKS BY THE LOOK OF IT, at least by people who can understand it & use it..
I could not get the meaning of SQUARE as used here in Gann. If it is dimensionally based or is it just from the high to low OR low to high based (which wold not make a physical square).
You mentioned the cube elsewhere in an example. Is the cube a separate concept?
It is a pity IG does not have this understanding to build it into their tools .
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Gann;s method looks mathematically based.
How do get the drawings of the 1x1, 1x2, 1x3, etc... ?
IG does not have tool for use.
Checks various sites but most cannot get it. Even IG has "Gann Fans & Gann Lines" but these ARE NOT GANN. Wonder if anyone knows how to input it into the computer system correctly.
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Janet Yellen says quashing Covid-19 is key to lowering inflation
I do not rightly see how COVID IS TO BLAME, I.E. THE ROOT CAUSE OF HIGHER INFLATION.
Sure, COVID Entered, Economy was stooped, MORE QE measures were applied to support governments, hence more possible inflation to come down the road.
There are several Inflation measures and hence meanings that apply to them ( otherwise you cannot have different measures of it).
We also had commodities prices shooting high. If raw energy prices alone go shooting upwards and remain in the very high range then means most costs go up as the buying prices are costlier. Hence higher inflation, even leaving other items out. Should the energy prices fall big time then prices should deflate, hence lower inflation.
Leaders like Yellen have to look at many parameters / metrics and her advisers come to certain outcome conclusions with several possible outcomes. One is chosen.
The problem IS THAT MANY MODELS ARE BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS WHICH IF NOT QUITE RIGHT CAN LEAD TO WRONG EVALUATIONS. SECONDLY, MOST MODELS ARE BASED ON LINEAR OR "BEST FIT CURVES" AND THAT OFTEN LEADS TO MIS-EVALUATIONS.
Afterall their knowledge base was based correctly on principles of the subject why then we be able to apply a propper fix and it would solve it. Wouldn't it?
TIME WILL SHOW IF INFLATION REMAINS THE BIG ISSUE OR DEFLATION TAKES OVERALL CONTROL AS ITS METRICS GIVE INDICATIONS OF (AS IN THE PAST HISTORY).
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The key question is, Hyperinflation or Deflation?
The FED wants stability in the Economy, no doubt. They introduced QE and the take over of private banks toxic debts in the recent past. The fed reasons that dishing out free digital money printing into the banking system will somehow magically solve the problems. The ingrained fixed ideas they have is that you will avoid booms & bursts, as even Ben .B. (ex-FED chief) was promoting in the past
End result: Hyperinflation in all asset prices and hyperbolic rise in debt.
Covid temporarily screwed up the economic life cycle, but that is NOT A CAUSE of economic woes that arose much earlier. It just added to the continuing degradation of the GDP Growth and debt build up over the longer term, since the 2007-2009 market crash.
All FED Policy actions have NOT SOLVED the economic & financial duress that has taken place.
Now the FED has released their SEMI-ANNUAL STABILITY REPORT. They point out several major financial factors that may unstablise the system. QUOTE: "Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate."
Their evaluation is interesting.
WE HAVE BEEN DOWN THIS ROAD IN THE PAST TOO. SO ALL THE "SOLUTIONS" APPLIED SHOULD HAVE WORKED AND WE SHOULD NOT BE IN THIS PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY IF THE FED NEW WHAT THEY WERE DOING or THAT THE KEY PROBLEMS, THE WHYS, WERE TRULY UNDERSTOOD.
IT DOES NOT OCCUR TO THE FED AND MANY IN THE FINANCIAL WORLD THAT MONETARY POLICY and TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS in QE LINKS TO THOSE SEVERAL MAJOR FINANCIAL FACTORS, e.g. emerging market sovereign and corporate debt. Chinese real estate sector, US Housing market, etc...
The deliberate very low interest rates introduction encouraged the above factors to flourish and with the disregard to good common sense and empirical practices of the past, were tossed to one side.
Is every one in the shadow of the FED and not able to recognise the Fed policy and its timely "actions" that should have solved the financial problems over the decades, have not been solved at all but made it worse than ever before?
QE has fueled the financial market rises to extreme highs. It IS NOT THE ORGANIC GROWTH (FOR MOST, EXCEPT THE TECH & BIOTECH SECTORS) that is doing it.
Most companies are in highest ever debts. If they were run well, were making money and financially prudent than companies should not be in huge debts.
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Thank you for the key data on Central Banks.
Yes, they are private entities. The first of them was the FED, promoted and advised government officials or politicians by private bankers and business men from 1911 meeting until the legal setup of the FED in 1913. By-the-way the 1933 law passed gave full authority to the FED to act on behalf of the Government to handle its financing , rates and handling of inflation.
As to whether the Central Banks REALLY bring and maintain stability is open to question. Historically these Bankers have repeatedly said "This time it is different", that there is no bubble (hyperinflated assets being created). One example is Ben Bernanke famously advised Gorden Brown totally incorrectly along this idea.
Ben Bernanke was a very clever man who totally understood the destructive erosion of the value of money (purchasing value) when he was chief at the Economic Council AND hence fully promoted gold (as a standard and store of value.). But he was hired by the FED and from that point had to change his tune to join in on money printing without it being backed by gains in productivity or some gains in the store of value measure.
Once the gold standard was removed (by advice given by bankers) in the USA it immediately ended the Bretton Wood Agreement (became a failure -- and that was originated to handle the 1929-32 crash & Depression). It is ok for the USA to apparently print money like mad because it is the key world currency on which trade is done and all countries are trapped in that modeled system.
Nobody stopped the excess printing of money (paper money printed in the past but now done digitally at a press of a button for the computer programs to whiz out). Helicopter money that has been so hugely promoted glibly is just doing the same OLD PRACTICES THAT DID NOT SOLVE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM.
ALL CENTRAL BANKS FOLLOWED THE FED's MODEL. That is why we get world depression -- it is a domino effect all based on the SAME FAULTY MODEL.
As I said in the previous note, Rates and Inflation are not the key determinants of an economy. Even Harry Dent as proven WHAT ECONOMIC MODEL WORKS AND WHY. Inflation has several meanings and effects -- some good and some bad. Even the Austrian School of Economics is a better model in some ways than the Conventional being used by most currently. However most economic theories of the past had issues. But the key fact remains that none of them could predict short term or long term. Most got it wrong. Rarely some got it right and then made a big noise about.
It seems the mentality is that Humans like to feel that they are right and the other fellow is wrong even when they are wrong. No one CHANGE THEIR THEORY and those who got it very badly wrong do not lose their jobs, nor the way they operated, the mechanisms they used get dumped (because that it not work).
Harry Dent seems to be an Economist who has produced the best (if not fully) a model that works.
As regards current Inflation, well that is a big issue as some think (and some press reports ) that we are heading for hyperinflation ... others think it is temporary ... whilst others consider that we are headed for Deflation ahead. Deflation appears when TOO MUCH (extremely EXCESS) MONEY IS IN THE SYSTEM CREATED BY QE.
Repurchasing that back into the system as it is merely is creative accounting and somebody (usually the taxpayer, who did not create the problem) ends up paying for the aftereffects. The mechanism is , PRINT loads of money, Take the private industry / bankers toxic debts and give freely to them printed money. They will use the money to be invested in companies needing money, and into goods and services. AND hey presto, ALL WILL BE WELL!!!!!! THE REALITY HAS BEEN THE OPPOSITE!!!!!!!!
Moral of this story is: OLD FAILED SOLUTIONS USED AGAIN AND AGAIN DO NOT SOLVE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM OF BOOMS AND BURSTS. And THAT NATURAL FORCES (market forces) WERE NOT ALLOWED TO REGULATE THEMSELVES , i.e private industry should not be subsidised or propped up. If people lose their jobs then the government should subsidise them and retrain them for new jobs. Failing companies and old unchanging industries are the fault of top executives running them -- poor performers in truth. Hell, most individuals would be demoted or sacked for bad performance that worsened their company, not rewarded.
EXAMPLE CASE
In the last recession FEAR OF GOD was put to government and the nation as if the world would totally collapse if the bankrupt banks failed. Governments panic and fear mass unemployment and they would be voted out of office so take up any solution that temporarily appears to work. Certainly it is a major issue but failed collapsed banks can be made to go , just as any other bad company. Their assets can be bought back cheaply instead of taking over toxic debts of others who ruined the system. Other banks holding Bonds lose out (& private individuals) but that IS the nature of this game.
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Today's rate decision is a surprise to the market.
The BoE give hints of an increase, 0.15%. in advance than they do the opposite!!!!!
WHY DO CENTRAL BANKERS GENERALISE, THROW IN HINTS, SAY IT WILL BE XXX OR COMMUNICATE IN MYSTICAL WAYS? They micro manage statistical information as if it was gospel truth. Yet, it IS BASED ON THEORIES. Besides any modelling has certain assumptions built in too.
This conclusion makes experts take them for their word, or end up reading between the lines.
It demonstrates possibly:
1. Make all believe they are invincible and know best (yet the Bond market is far more able to decide from known facts).
2. They have many uncertainties but not show it publically.
3. The perceived economic theory modelling does NOT give confidence to be CLEAR, PRECISE OR DECISIVE.
The Arts (as sciences, include Economics, Sociology, Law, Politics etc...) are million miles from the the workability of the Exact Sciences (like Physics, Engineering, AI, Biotechnology, Electronics, etc...).
How many are happy with the way Central Banks operate?
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I think the BoE will raise the rates by 0.25%.
Consumer price inflation has increased due to sky rocketing commodities.
Central Banks played about with an arbitrary 2% standard as if that is the key factor all of the Economy depends on and no other factor is important or has more influence. They have become by habit, have a fixed focus - inflation & rates.
A financial Publishing house CEO wrote a book on thousands of years of financial / economics of various past civilisations and established an amasing set of key whys of how they failed in the end. Our CURRENT CIVILISATION IS NO DIFFERENT, NOR CAN IT MANIPULATE AWAY FINANCIAL MISMANAGEMENT.
It has apparently never occurred to any Banker or Economist (except a few) , in the last 80-100 years, that MONEY MANAGEMENT IS OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE.
Oh if they did (assume I am wrong) then why have they failed to handle foul accounting practices (often reported), letting greed change the good empirical practices (via Bankers lobby system to change & relax financial laws), not penalise enough or more severely institutions that have allowed criminal money to be laundered, allowing (& profiting the wrong way) from indebtedness increases being allowed as if that is natural when it is NOT ( since the 1960s ), ..... the list can go on.
MAYBE THE KEY FACTORS INCLUDE that OUTGOINGS SHOULD BE LESS THAN INCOME (CEO & CFO of the old 1970s GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY UNDERSTOOD THIS REALLY WELL).
THAT EXPANDING TOO FAST OR TOO SLOW ARE JUST AS TROUBLESOME IN ANY BUSINESS. Too slow and you do not do well, too fast an expansion and the business is over leveraged.
The Central Banking system, as many financial experts have said, when a group of Business individuals got together and created a system that benefits them at Jkyll Island in 1911 ( J D Rockefeller, J P Morgan,& others). The FED was created 1913. In 1933 key laws changed and the FED took full control of running government financing actions. The idea that it was to prevent bubbles or to handle them has NOW BEEN PROVEN TO BEEN A FAILURE. HISTORY HAS SHOWN THIS.
It is a GREAT SHAME FOR IT TO COME TO THIS WHEN THESE CLEVER PEOPLE HAD THE CHANCE TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE BUT DID NOT.
Commercial investors / financiers increase Bond rates after observing what is happening in the real Economy. The Fed and other Central Bankers follow afterwards - check out past history.
Mind you European Central Bank chief thinks she is right by stating that those rises is wrong (effectively). ANYONE CAN GIVE GLIB ANSWERS but all the incorrect analyses and evaluations are soon forgotten. Then the SAME OLD FAILED "SOLUTIONS" ARE USED AGAIN, AND AGAIN.
THIS TIME WHENEVER THE BUBBLE BREAKS and the ECONOMY COLLAPSES A NEW GATHERING OF THE FINANCIERS WILL OCCUR (BRETTON WOODS HAS FAILED) TO CREATE A NEW "SOLUTION". FUNNY THING IS NONE OF THE BAD PRACTICES WOULD GET HANDLED. THE "SOLUTION" WILL BE THE MECHANISMS THEY WANT TO NEW INDEPENDENT GROWTH OF CRYPO CURRENCY COMPETITION UNDER CONTROL AND BANNING (SLOWLY) CASH SO PEOPLE CANNOT TAKE THEIR MONEY OUT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BANKS COLLAPSE OR TO MAKE PEOPLE PAY government debt built up -- via negative interest rates or other ways.
QUESTION.
Why are not the companies or banks that caused or encouraged bad practices been made to go bankrupt?
Government or other well operated companies can take over the collapsed companies or else just learn from it.
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Bitcoin regularly has volatility. This time it came to the all time high and investors reacted. Do not forget the Bitcoin ETFs (Futures based) have come out at the time too.
China banning or wanting it srtickly regulated ONLY because NO GOVERNMENT IN THE WORLD can control cryptos as they represent a new form of money (time will tell which will do well). Capital flows were going out of China due to the Evergarnde scare (it is still a danger - a time bomb). Fiat money outflows can be stopped but they had to introduce a ban on cryptos to prevent outflows.
ALL central banks & Governments worry about that. Example a Bank run or financial / currency crisis can lead to capital outflows.
That is why western countries (at least some) ban the ordinary investors from direct investing in cryptos in their backyard. Not because they care about them losing money, hell investors lose a huge amount via options, Futures, and other ways but that does not worry them, particularly when this game is a loaded dice game (zero sum game).
That is one reason for planning DIGITAL CURRENCY, the other REAL reason is that you CANNOT TAKE YOUR DIGITAL MONEY OUT OF THE SYSTEM and they can TAX us, e,g, VIA negative interest (another form of tax that some BIG BANKS have been chanting for for years.
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Some interesting replies, seem to have elements of truth.
YES, "The truth is out there".
Another data source for info is:
Some think it is a political ploy. NO CHANCE. Politicians are ALWAYS ADVISED from various sources, including the faceless top brass Civil Servants (who probably have their contacts). Different groups & different biases often exist and even may conflict. Another source IS THE LOBBY SYSTEM of the big PR companies that represent BIG COMPANIES INTERESTS AND AGENDA(That bypasses the Democracy system).
We live in a world of VESTED INTERESTS, PARTICULARLY FROM big companies.
COVID & RELATED PANDEMICS (I.E. VIA THE THROAT / NOSE / CHEST INFECTIONS CAN BE HANDLED WITH ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION TO THE NEW COVID DRUG VACCINATIONS.
Point 1:
In Asia -- example: In an Indian village people had covid.
SOLUTION: Vitman C every few hours (fact - it fights bacteria & viruses ), tumeric power + other herbs and a DAILY HEAD STEAM with a towel over one's head for roughly 20-30 minutes). The older generation in every country remember that they use to use the head steam as a standard solution.
Point 2:
Decon 7 Disinfectant & Decontamination
WHY HAVE GOVERNMENTS NOT USED THIS, NOR MAKE ALL COMPANIES USE IT IN THE FIRST PLACE WHEN IT DOES AN EXCELLENT JOB. Then no major shut-downds or job losses would have been needed. ref.:
https://hazmatresource.com/products/decon-7-disinfectant-decontamination/
There are other souces on the net giving more data. In short, after Anthrex situation many years ago governments (via military) researched a solution that kills all bacteria & viruses to 99.999%. The Dencon 7 was an industrial solution.
NO ONE IN ANY GOVERNMNT HAD BEEN ADVISED TO USE THIS.
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TBoE will have to increase rates at some point.
But the facts are that Market rates (Bonds & inter-rate) have more influence on this and the Central Banks (UK, USA Europe, etc..) react to the, lagging behind them.
Most Annalists and commentators think the FED and others control & know what they are doing but NOT SO.
Time will tell as the Governments around the world have been herding in keeping rates down for too long because they want to borrow, borrow & borrow more to "get out of the current debt mess built up. BIG IRONY. Also, the Banks (led by central banks & the Big Banks that run the financial system for & with the central banks encourage lending as they they make money from that.
PUT IT ANOTHER WAY: IF THE CENTRAL BANKS & Banks really knew what they were doing and their theories were right THEN WE SHOULD NOT BE IN IN ANY FINANCIAL TROUBLE OR MESS OR WITH THE HIGHEST EVER DEBT BUBBLE BUILT UP IN HISTORY (AROUND THE WORLD).
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Some Central bankers and other economists get carried away and think we high inflation.
Some central banks policies as to create inflation in an deflationary period.
How confused are they?
Inflation has several meanings. For example we have hyperinflation in the stock markets valuations created from QE. Also, share buybacks is NOT investing in their own companies, but an illusion since nothing is invested in goods and services.
This is not an experiment that some bankers have suggested. It has been done before with the same techniques, all to lead to a disaster for the average person and investor.
Mountain of debt that governments have built up, even PRIOR TO THIS EPIDEMIC, is a result of voters buying by spend, spend spend money they do not have. And central bankers and banks encouragement advises -- let the future pay for it while the bankers milk huge profits from all this, until the domino collapses.
Oh, the FED DOES NOT CONTROL INTEREST RATES and empirical data SHOWS THAT THEY FOLLOW THE BOND MARKET.
This IS THE SOLUTION THAT NEVER HAS SOLVED PAST FINANCIAL CRISES, JUST PROLONGED THE CHAOS TO COME. iT WILL BE THAT MUCH BIGGER BUBBLE.
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The Virus and the Economy
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted