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THT

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Posts posted by THT


  1. 20 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

    ūüĎĬ†oh dear, govt example scenario shows 11 million dead by Christmas¬†ūüĎÄ

    ... does anyone suspect they might be being played yet? just asking.

    image.png.7ec3bc083b74bc07994a3f53dbc551d7.png

    image.png.b9a6a7bf4cd1b8547c0ceafd826f94bb.png

    LOL - My mental maths ain't great, but i drew the same conclusion watching the press conference yesterday

    Trouble is 98% of the population will do as 98% of traders do - just accept the rhetoric and sound bites 

    • Like 2

  2. 15 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

    The reality, testing now up to 90,000 a day (many times greater than in March) = 'new' cases also up.

    If you came into contact with a cold or flu virus even months ago (and probably were asymptomatic) you would be a confirmed 'new' case.

    But new hospital admissions and new deaths are still negligible. Compare March with now on the chart. Second lockdown starting soon.

    you are being played

    image.thumb.png.da866bb8171133a7c6e79f33df78ff9c.png

    Yep I agree this needs to be rising - the only plausible excuse for me is that the age range testing positive en masse can withstand the death aspect of the virus - i.e. the under 30's  


  3. On 19/09/2020 at 10:06, jlz said:

    ok, let's say that we all agree on the fact that we had many corona-viruses before and this one is just another one to add to the list. We can't escape it and sooner or later will catch me, I can agree with all of that, a mask is not an astronaut helmet so I can't protect myself from it.

    What is the actual point of forcing people into a quarantine? We say that governments do not want bad press or be entitled to many deaths, which are actually the same deaths every year.  Are they not able to explain that instead of simply telling us to stay at home?

    If I am being played, what is the actual end point? Why would governments all over the world play people on the subject? I find really hard to believe that this is all part of a massive hoax. 

    I don't see the benefit of forcing quarantines just for the sake of making people to follow rules. Is it not easier to think that the information we've got is so minimal that we can't be sure that this virus is going to wipe out people suddenly from the face of earth? Like, "we have no clue of what is going on, you better stay at home, because is the only advise I can give you"

    How about to listen to professionals that warn us daily? Like Dr Fauci

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/fauci-covid-19-risks-coronavirus-trump-white-house

    Is not better to do what they say instead of believing that this is all part of a massive conspiracy against people?

    I don't think governments are playing people around, it is more that they don't have a clue of what we have to do to fix it, pretty much like in other pandemic. And the only message they can give us is "stay at home and let's hope that you  don't die"

    In conspiracy land there's been an ongoing piece for decades about the governments running/controlling our lives such as in Orwells Animal Farm and 1984

    It has credence as a possibility, and testing compliance such as we are all abiding by now does fit

    Doesn't mean its actually happening though - I'm just on alert personally as this needs to end sometime and lives back to normal without any government control etc

    David Icke calls it the Totalitarian Tiptoe - Small little bites at removing freedoms until you have non left - it is plausible but so is going to live on Pluto one day 

    the only part of me that keeps one eye open is I 100% believe Icke about the FED and 9/11 that he's written about over a decade ago

    A pandemic is the perfect cover for a totalitarian regime to take control - "you need to do as we tell you and we'll save you"

    I'm sceptical but aware 


  4. Trade STOPPED out for a 1R Loss = Disciplined rule following

    simply wait until the next trade next month

    379.thumb.JPG.6e7353d875939e3148b6b69882a2b422.JPG

     

     

    DATE

    TRADE DIRECTION

    ENTRY

    STOP

    RISK

    TARGET

    OUTCOME

    **** R value

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    July 20th 2020

     

    LONG

     

    3224.29

     

    3189.29

    35 pts

    175 pts

    3399.29

     

    175pts

     

    5R

    Aug 19th 2020

     

    LONG

     

    3392.51

     

    3357.51

    35 pts

    175 pts

    3567.51

     

    -35pts

     

    4R

    Sept 17th 2020

     

    LONG

     

    3346.86

     

    3311.86

    35 pts

    175 pts

    3521.86

     

    -35pts

     

    3R

    Oct 16th 2020

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Nov 15th 2020

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Dec 14th 2020

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Jan 13th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Feb 11th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Mar 13th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Apr 12th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    May 11th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    June 10th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DISCLAIMER:

    As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses.

    THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk


  5. All this is is a new different strain of a Coronavirus as Caseynotes says (a coronavirus is just a common cold type virus) - it's killing people who can't cope with it, most of the population will be able to cope with it, but if say 5% don't then that's 3 million dead

    The government don'[t want the bad press of letting 3 million people die, they also can't cope with the effect that would have on the hospital infrastructure in the UK - hence the lock down

    It's worked, but we can't hide, it will get us all infection wise at some stage now or in the future just like the Flu - then its a lottery whether you survive or die from it - the only way to get rid of this is to have a 100% shut down of everything globally (which is virtually impossible) to stop the spread and let the virus wipe itself out by not being able to reproduce

    The governments not helped the situation from its action as people will expect protection going forward - at some point the economy and money will decide what the government does


  6. 4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

    Corona virus has been with us since forever we just never mass tested before. There are no extra deaths this year than any other and it's the same unfortunate types who die of corona virus every year (over 80's with pre-existing conditions 90% of cases).

    Corona virus is always circulating in the population most people being completely unaware and asymptomatic, herd immunity is built and the virus mutates or dies out.

    Tests just show you have been exposed to the virus at some stage which could have been months ago and you were most likely asymptomatic.

    Vaccines don't work for corona virus because they mutate very quickly which is why there is no vaccine for the common cold (a corona virus). And why flu shots don't work very often because they are based on the previous years dominant strain not the current year's (the mass manufacturing would be too late).

    Covid 19 has already been mutating and the last studies I saw several weeks ago confirmed that as usual a particularly nasty strain becomes less deadly with each new mutation.

    Another 30,000 people will die next year from respiratory infections as it's the 5 year rolling average (covid 19 or not), weather it'll be covid 19 next year or another strain no one knows but they will keep the covid ball rolling anyway.

    So all in all it looks like lockdown til the end of time.

     

     

     

    I agree with 99% of this - the current strain is virtually exact to a strain found in 2012 by a group of Chinese scientists, then when 6 of them died from exposure the virus was sealed and sent to Wuhan

    I challenged David Icke  to prove the excess deaths were'nt excess deaths, from the info I looked into I'm satisfied the virus is genuine and I'm probably one of the worlds biggest sceptics 

    From a lock down point of view I'd of thought the perfect place to test out compliance of mass herds would be the USA - hasn't happened strongly enough for me to be concerned but it shown those that could create such circumstances how compliment most people are.

     

    • Like 1

  7. Here's Septembers THT NEW MOON method test

    Rules as in the original post

    Aim is to prove to you that you do not need a fancy schmancy trading method to make money in the markets a random method with good risk:reward is all you need

    376.thumb.JPG.716b7d172a607e8a2a619a61bbc25491.JPG

     

      

    DATE

    TRADE DIRECTION

    ENTRY

    STOP

    RISK

    TARGET

    OUTCOME

    **** R value

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    July 20th 2020

     

    LONG

     

    3224.29

     

    3189.29

    35 pts

    175 pts

    3399.29

     

    175pts

     

    5R

    Aug 19th 2020

     

    LONG

     

    3392.51

     

    3357.51

    35 pts

    175 pts

    3567.51

     

    -35pts

     

    4R

    Sept 17th 2020

     

    LONG

     

    3346.86

     

    3311.86

    35 pts

    175 pts

    3521.86

     

    LIVE

     

     

    Oct 16th 2020

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Nov 15th 2020

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Dec 14th 2020

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Jan 13th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Feb 11th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Mar 13th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    Apr 12th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    May 11th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

    June 10th 2021

     

    LONG

     

     

    35 pts

    175 pts

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DISCLAIMER:

    As we live in a world and time where you have to warn people who hold a piece of paper and a lit match close together that it could result in creating fire - The above is an example only - It is a random method designed to show you how it performs in the financial markets, it is NOT designed for you to trade, anyone trading it must accept losses as their own responsibility and if unsure, do not commit money - as one thing is for certain, the method will have losing trades and losses.

    THT will not and cannot be held responsible for any losses whatsoever - trading this example is at your own risk

    • Like 1

  8. 30 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Neither you nor Caseynotes share anything of value to anyone here.

    Caseynotes has been here how long?  And he has probably never helped a single person turn around and become profitable.

    I've tried my best and lost money, just like 99% of everyone who gets sucked into this waste of time.

    If the pair of you want to hang around here to brag about the size of your w!llies that's fine.  But why do you do it?  Is effortlessly making money not enough for you?

    I was prepared to help but your attitude is just horrible


  9. 10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Save yourself the hassle...

    Unless you're trying to hawk you sh!te to the plebs via PM.

    If you published material that was actually helpful and useful to people your threads might be much more interesting than they are - a 5 year old can pull quotes and bits out of any old trading book - with no substance

    got nothing to sell matey

    You do have one thing in common with elite professional traders, very few actually make it, when you were conceived 1 just 1 tadpole out of hundreds of millions made it through - the old normality guards must have been having a nap that day or being violently sick most likely - I bet all the other hundreds of millions tadpoles just looked at each other dumb founded when you got through - you really are one unique sad excuse for a human being


  10. 1 hour ago, 786Trader said:

    It doesn't matter what kind of edge you have, it's an edge and therefore an advantage.  I shall look up Gann's basic methods and implement them on an experimental basis with real, hard, cold cash.  Thank you for your interesting points. Am of the mind to discount and assume nothing, which makes viewing and implementing alternative market theorems easier. Some are crackpot theories, with a grain of truth (like Qanon) others perfectly functional but alternative rationale as yet unaccepted...look forward to Ganns theory. Will not get lost in the tunnel!

    Just remember a lot of his methods don't work - his form reading ones do and if you add to them and tweak them, they are very very profitable - He also mentions in his resistance levels course about the gravity centre and 50% line/level - I've adapted it from the basic course he teaches, I've got it ready to publish in my How to Win thread, I just haven't pushed submit as of yet

    Yeah I agree - theres a trader and a barrister called Marc Rivilland who trades Gann as Gann details in his courses - he used to be The Trader in Investors chronicle - and that system returns him approx 15-20% per year - that is not what I'm talking about, that is just one of Gann's methods and I personally would not put in the effort trading that for 15-20%

    I've published on my How to Win thread how to set risk per market, that helps to swing the R value towards you

    Depends what mood I'm in, I might publish the 50% level next week or so


  11. I would class myself as a Gann Expert - I've spent 5 years studying Gann - I've got his courses sat on the bookshelf behind me (see pic) - before the smart ar£$ comments - I've owned over 250 trading books, those are the only ones that have remained out of the bin - Elders books are unfortunately most probably being used as recycled toilet paper somewhere

    325.JPG.a853777130a373cdad3f5d4d769c5398.JPG

    Gann has been turned into a legend in my opinion he IS/WAS, but in the trading community because 99% of people who study his courses fail to see the wood for the trees - Gann made a series of predictions, it's these predictions that he's remember for and its why people devoted huge amounts of time to "cracking the code" of his secrets

    There's a massive contradiction here - it is correct that statement above from his son, there is absolutely no evidence of Gann making $50 million dollars from trading, if you follow the content of his courses they are ALL after the fact examples, HOWEVER, he traded in front of an auditor for 1 month and turned a tiny amount of money into tens of thousands - it was audited by an Independent party, proof of this can be found in the TICKER Interview and publication that was published in December 1909 - It is in this Ticker Interview that he mentions that the "Law of Vibration" can account for stock market movements (This is 100% absolutely correct)

    So you'd think that a person who claims to have made $50mill but only left $100k there's something at odds here - I personally don't care, to me way back in the 2000's it seemed very odd to me and I've always had that at the back of my mind when studying Gann

    The CONTENT of his courses will either prove he was great or not - I can attest that some of it is useless, some of it doesn't make sense and just does not work and some of it works, but of that some of it does work you can end up making serious returns annually

    Gann also wrote a veiled novel in the 1920's called "Tunnel Thru the Air" - This is the novel that Gann experts shred to bits to find the holy grail (no ones found it yet!) 

    All those that research Gann invest a huge amount of time into looking at Astrology (because Gann was an Astrologer, his list of recommended reading had lots of Astrological books in it, some of his works that have found there way to the public domain show use of Astrology and planets (Gann got his students to sign non-disclosure agreements as well as them paying $5k back in the 1920/30's!) - when all these Gann experts realise that nothing is actually clear, they then turn to recovering the money spent on trying to figure out Gann as well as the lost years they've invested! this is where the rip off comes from

    Now comes my bit - HOWEVER........

    Some of Gann works

    I've personally made more money trading Gann than any other method - It's probably why I've referenced Gann for the past few months on here as a VERY BIG hint (very very few would have picked up on that though)

    The Law of Vibration he mentions is 100% correct - I've tested it on the Dow Index since 1792 to present and it has a 90% win rate - The problem is it's not quite as Gann describes it, and most importantly Gann never reveals it or what he uses to construct it - doesn't take a genius to figure it out though as i managed to!

    In the chart below that's the Law of Vibration at work - go and check out what the main stock markets (USA/UK) did on Aug 18th 2015 - As you can see I published this chart months in advance of that date - these vibration cycles can be traced right back to May 12th 1792

    The REASON why 18th Aug 2015 was only a plunge is because the RED cycle line arrives BEFORE the Blue cycle line - Look at the chart for what happens when red comes after blue

    These cycles are handy to know if you're an Investor - As a trader you'll know the most likely direction of the market but that does not stop you being able to trade and make money

    The laziest way to Invest is buying and holding - you'd just buy a ETF @ the mid-cycle low such as 1974 or 2009 and just hold until red or blue cycle line of the ending period of the 17 year up cycle, sit out the coming correction and then reinvest - I have absolutely no plans whatsoever to reveal the next section - I've revealed this elsewhere in full so it can be proved i made the calls years in advance if its ever challenged - but it's a blueprint for my family as I can tell you now when the major crashes and rises are going to be for the next 500 years

    Between the Blue lines there's Internal cycles at play (not shown in the chart below, but 1 is shown in the chart below that) - also not all the valid cycles are shown on these charts EVERY major turning point can be attributed to a cycle

    207900770_Timecycles2.thumb.gif.3d2d09ab14437983131766416ca63fb8.gif

    Now I've made absolutely fantastic calls well in advance of time see below! I called out the period around March 2020 3 years in advance - using GANN - I might publish on here the 2021 dates at some point

    237.JPG.f6b123f63746ddf4b9d41bc53760cd39.JPG

    Gann had his emblem as below - Square and a Triangle inside a circle - If you take a circle of 360 degrees and place the square you get 90 degree angles and ~Triangle gives you 120 degree angles which can be used in a multitude of ways - Time Price etc

    Gann believed that everything in nature revolved in a circle and within that circle it could be divided using the square and triangle etc - anyone who knows music knows scales, nodes/vibration points and they know that these can be calculated in mathematical ratios

    302.JPG.8cf6438c79cb447bee17724ca52dbc56.JPG

    Also what about "Gann Angles"? 

    Well I posted this (chart below) to my How to Win thread weeks ago

    With Gann Angles you never know if they are important or until they're hit, so my personal opinion is you can't trade them willy nilly, however when a cycle is due and price is nearing one it's a ultra high probability trade with massive profit potential - I've already showed you Ganns 4th Time lucky set-up on the FTSE100 at the feb top 2020 and knowing of the cycle how you'd of stayed short into March 20

    Now I've not bothered continuing researching Gann angles further as I don't really need to - the TOP pink angle on the chart - take a look where the Nasdaq100 stopped before this last weeks little tumble - that Gann angle is from the March 6th 2009 LOW!

    If I can be bothered I might do a post on the mathematical relationship of swings - but it won't aid your trading ability, I just like to see all the mathematical relationships of the markets 

    359.thumb.JPG.a933f1e48423707aef74347030299339.JPG

    One last little bit on Gann - as you can see he compiled the following timetable back in 1909 - As you can see its fairly accurate, but does get out of sync - but notice how he absolutely nailed 1987, 2007/08 etc

    GannFinancialTable.gif.50f656acc16a2bb9d535e7094094fb0b.gif

    Now if you've made it down to here, you will be pleased to know that you don't need to know anything about cycles, angles, financial time tables or what not - In his courses Gann mentions really basic trading methods and money management methods - THAT WORK MUCH MUCH BETTER THAN MOST OTHER METHODS OUT THERE! Also I've published these for you on my How to Win page!

    I can 100% attest that by applying the very basic Gann methods you can easily make 50% per market that you trade per year risking 2% = 1R on DAILY charts and as a realistic return you'd be doing something mega wrong to not return 100% per market per year

    So although there's a lot of secrecy around Gann and his methods - I'm of the opinion that you can make an absolute fortune by trading just his basic methods and I know that because I've personally and physically done it - just using simple ETF's of the FTSE100 and 250 Indexes inside my SIPP and ISA

    So to conclude - I've had my misgivings and concerns about Ganns claims for years, I still have - I tested his methods though, as I've said some work and some don't, of the ones that work you can make an absolute killing with and I'd of never cracked the pattern that the markets follow if it had not been for Gann - People studying Gann though lose sight of the big picture and go off chasing the contents of The Tunnel Thru the Air  (of which to date no-one on Earth has been able to replicate) - Ganns true secret hidden in plain sight for all to use is his "Form Reading" course

    • Like 1

  12. Gary Smith wrote a great book on this and other Indicators he monitored and used to trade with in the 90's - "How I trade for a Living"

    I came across the book in the 2000's and by that time the Indicators and way he traded changed due to the markets he traded had chanced cycle - That being said, I reckon that they will now start to conform to similar patterns going forward - but its not something I plan to check or test so caution if you look into etc

    • Like 1

  13. 54 minutes ago, HMB said:

    The 50% level I considered relevant at that specific time, based on the overall impression I got from recent observation.  Not thinking about using this as a general specification.  To be honest, I do not see myself having a "method" that would be explicitly defined enough to be tested in that sense in the near future.  My focus is still more on understanding and identifying changes in dynamics and maintaining a flexible approach.  Kinda every trade can be motivated by a totally different set of factors.  Maybe that's fundamentally wrong, maybe I'm just at an earlier stage of a learning process.  Will keep thinking about that. 

    Not all you can win in the markets by flipping a coin, so differing factors are valid

    • Like 1

  14. 18 minutes ago, HMB said:

    T_reasons.png

    tj.png

    whatever suits your style

    Interesting you use the 50% Level - I'm just writing up a post on the 50% level as a trading method - as we speak - for my "How to Win" page

    Only thing I'll say is whatever method you design/use make sure you test it to oblivion and back - a huge amount of methods work fine on paper but in the real world of live trading fail


  15. 11 hours ago, HMB said:

    I absolutely agree - however, about how a plan looks precisely, which components, etc.,  I may have at this stage not (yet?) exactly the same idea as most participants in this forum who shared their views on this (for which I am very grateful - I believe one learns a lot from discussions, guess Dalio would call that "thoughtful disagreement").  I need to plan better what to do when a trade doesn't work - which I think in my case should always mean an immediate, extensive break to become aware of my emotional state and then make conscious decisions about if/how to react (again loosely quoting Shull).  Also, at this stage, I need to find more/better ways to avoid behaviors that impede my abilities (if any...).  I can't every day deliberately drive in rush hour traffic for hours just to distract my urge to trade before my planned/scheduled trading time...

    More general:  one big issue of mine (among many others) is the inability to execute even the simplest plan - I need a plan to improve that...

    Plan to write a plan! 

    It's not easy, but its also not hard once you have clarity of mind and know what the market is likely to give

    for example - a lot of my trade plan is

    1. Trade EVERY opportunity - If opportunity does not show do not trade!
    2. Risk 2% of my account per trade
    3. Enter at X - determined by method
    4. Stop will be X pts
    5. Target is X pts - determined by method
    6. Once up X pts move stop to breakeven + 1pt
    7. Then once up 50% of the range from entry to target protect x% of open profits
    8. Accept most of the time this will work out perfectly but there will be times when it doesn't and 

    the hard part is working out the X parts - because we'd love 1000000000 points from the market, but if it only gives 100 points building a method/strategy for 1000000000 pts ain't going to be much good

     

     

    • Great! 1

  16. 11 hours ago, HMB said:

    and those probabilities are typically subjective, IMHO

    Depends on your trading style/method

    you never ever know for certain what return you're going to make on any 1 trade hence the need for exacting rules

    All my methods have exact rules, target levels - if the market fails to meet those target levels then its up to me to have a back-up plan to get some profit out rather than none 

    • Like 1

  17. On 08/09/2020 at 21:36, HMB said:

    ...funny how one gets conditioned by the market...  exorbitant valuations in NDX were obvious, barely explainable by low rates and massive Fed printing...  yes more profitable than 1990, but still obviously extremely highly priced...  now that was before Covid...  then the Covid crash, then the Fed prints more...  and all recovers till June 8...  but Dax, RTY, NKY etc. stop then, move sideways and eventually slightly higher, but NDX adds another 30%...  because Apple has suddenly invented the iphone?  and Microsoft released Windows?  Or Tesla built an electric car..?  Oh yes, Amazon - we all buy a second kindle now and order every book twice because of the pandemic..

    But no, I didn't get it.  The conditioning had already happened.  NDX must rebound after a 5% drop...  because then it would have only outperformed the rest of the world by 20% in two months.... exactly the amount of  time it took me to believe the craziness... 

    The markets aren't doing what you've been taught, learned / conditioned to think - They are doing something and until that point balances out they will defy all logic, analysis and common opinion

    I might do a post on this, If you're looking rationally at the markets, it WILL make sense to you, If your mind is not open to seeing things in a new light then you'll not get it or see it clearly

    Back in 2010 I went on a quest to work out why no one knew what the hell the markets were doing and most importantly were markets predictable

    I said in a public forum way back in 2015 that the stock markets events over the next 20 years will cause people to question its logic - It's going much higher in terms of price over the next 14 years, all that is happening now is the building phase - markets do this in a UP, correct, pause, UP, pause, correct, UP sequence and as most people only look at the last 12 months price data on a chart, they fail to see the journey over 15 years or so and it's by analysing these long term sections that you see the bigger picture

    • Like 1
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