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The Week Ahead On The Markets


MongiIG

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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

 
 

Week commencing 20 September

Chris Beauchamp’s insight

Fed, BoE and BoJ meetings dominate the week, with their discussion on policy likely to influence market volatility. Meanwhile, it is flash PMI week, providing further insight on the global economy. Also of note is the monthly German IFO data. On the corporate front, updates from Kingfisher, TUI and Royal Mail in the UK, and FedEx and Nike in the US, will be of interest.

 
 

Economic reports

  • Weekly view

Monday

None

Tuesday

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (August): starts to rise 2% and permits to fall 1.8%. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

4am – BoJ rate decision: no change in rates expected. Markets to watch: Yen crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (September, flash): index to fall to -5.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (August): sales to fall 1.3%. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (W/e 17 September): stockpiles fell 6.4 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

7pm – US FOMC rate decision: no change in policy expected, but the ongoing discussion regarding tapering of asset purchases will continue. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Thursday

8.15am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (September, flash): eurozone services PMI to fall to 59 and mfg PMI to fall to 60.4. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

9.30am – UK mfg & services PMI (September, flash): mfg PMI to fall to 59, and services to rise to 55.1. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses

12pm – BoE rate decision: no change in rates expected, but recent inflation data may prompt a discussion on policy. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 18 September), Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (August): claims to fall to 310K and Chicago Fed index to drop to 0.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & Services PMI (September, flash): mfg PMI to fall to 60 and services PMI to fall to 54. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

 

Friday

12.30am – Japan CPI (August): prices to fall 0.2% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

9am – Germany IFO index (September): business climate index to fall to 98.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US new home sales (August): sales to rise 0.5% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

 

Company announcements

 

 

Monday
20 September

Tuesday
21 September

Wednesday
22 September

Thursday
23 September

Friday
24 September

Full-year earnings

 

 

PZ Cussons,
Saga
   

Half/ Quarterly earnings

  Kingfisher,
SIG,
Adobe,
FedEx
General Mills Nike,
Accenture,
Costco

 

Trading update

  Compass,
TUI
  Mitchells & Butlers,
Royal Mail,
Investec

 

 

 

Dividends

FTSE 100: Smurfit Kappa, Hargreaves Lansdown

FTSE 250: Crest Nicholson, Essentra, Computacenter, Redrow, Wickes, LXI Reit

 

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

 

Index adjustments

  Monday
20 September
Tuesday
21 September
Wednesday
22 September
Thursday
23 September
Friday
24 September
Monday
27 September
FTSE 100  

 

0.78 (0.61)      
Australia 200 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0  
Wall Street            
US 500 0.20   0.18 0.07 0.10 0.23
Nasdaq 1.55     0.07 0.23  
Netherlands 25       0.20 (0)    
EU Stocks 50 2.3         2.4
China H-Shares           7.6
Singapore Blue Chip            
Hong Kong HS50           13.2
South Africa 40 223 9.8        
Italy 40            
Japan 225      

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      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



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      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




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