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Bank of England Reaction: GBP/USD Jumps on More Hawkish BoE


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Bank of England Analysis and News

  • BoE Leaves Policy Tools Unchanged as Expected
  • Policymakers Vote 7-2 on Maintain Gilt Purchases, Ramsden Joins Saunders in Hawkish Dissent
  • GBP Breaks Above 1.37 on More Hawkish Statement

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Bank of England left policy measures unchanged as expected with the Bank Rate remaining at 0.1% and gilt purchases at GBP 875bln. However, the vote split on gilt purchases saw Ramsden joining Saunders in calling for a cut to GBP 860bln. Alongside this, the BoE noted that some developments have meant that the case for tightening has strengthen, which in turn has prompted a shift in money markets pricing in a 15bps rate hike for March 2022 vs Previous May 2022. That said, the March meeting is not a quaterly meeting like February or May, making it unlikely that a hike will take place at March.

UK Money Market See Rate Lift Off by March 2022

Bank of England Reaction: GBP/USD Jumps on More Hawkish BoE

Source: Refinitiv

Growth: Bank staff had revised down their expectations for 2021 Q3 GDP growth from 2.9% at the time of the August Report to 2.1%, in part reflecting the emergence of some supply constraints on output. That would leave the level of Q3 GDP around 2½% below its pre-Covid level.

Inflation: The BoE also continue to expect inflation to rise towards 4% in Q4 before returning back to 2% over the medium term and thus sticking with the transitory view on inflation.

GBP/USD: A jump to session highs and breaking above 1.3700 in response to a slightly more hawkish than expected statement. On the topside, near term resistance sits at 1.3722 and 1.3750.

EUR/GBP: Range trading persists in the cross, having once again failed to maintain a foothold above 0.8600 and thus remains the area to fade rallies into. That said, support is situated at 0.8520 and 0.8500. For now, there is little to suggest that this range will see a notable breakout. Short term momentum is neutral, offering little excitement for the cross.

GBP/USD and UK Gilt Yields Immediate Reaction to BoE

Bank of England Reaction: GBP/USD Jumps on More Hawkish BoE

Source: Refinitiv

 

By Justin McQueen, Strategist, 23 September 2021. DailyFX

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    • Natural Gas Commodity Elliottwave Technical Analysis
      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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