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The Week Ahead On The Markets


MongiIG

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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

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Week commencing 10 January

Chris Beauchamp’s insight

US earnings season begins this week, with banks JPMorgan and Citigroup heading up the quarterly parade of earnings updates from the US. This helps to alleviate a slightly dull week on the economic front, although CPI from the world’s two largest economies will be closely-watched given the Fed’s hawkish turn last week in the minutes of its December meeting. Video

Economic reports

 

  • Weekly view

Monday

None

Tuesday

12.30am – Australia trade balance (November): previous reading was surplus of $11.22 billion. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

 

Wednesday

1.30am – China CPI (December): prices to rise 2.5% YoY. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

1.30pm – US CPI (December): prices to rise 6.9% YoY and 0.4% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 7 January): stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

 

Thursday

3am – China trade data (December): exports rose 22% in November’s data. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

1.30pm – Initial jobless claims (8 January), PPI (December): claims expected to rise to 215K from207K. PPI expected to rise 0.4% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Friday

7am – UK GDP (November): expected to grow by 1% for the three months to the end of November. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (December): sales expected to rise 0.3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US consumer confidence (January, preliminary): index to hold at 70.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Company announcements

 

Monday
10 January

Tuesday
11 January

Wednesday
12 January

Thursday
13 January

Friday
14 January

Full-year earnings    

 

   
Half/ Quarterly earnings

 

      Delta JPMorgan Chase,
Citigroup
Trading update

 

    Whitbread,
PageGroup,
Vistry Group,
JD Sports Fashion,
Sainsbury,
Topps Tiles,
Cineworld,
Just Eat Takeaway.com
Hilton Food Group,
Dunelm,
Halfords,
Tesco,
John wood Group,
ASOS,
Persimmon,
Marks & Spencer
Currys,
Experian

 

 

Dividends

FTSE 100: SSE, Sage, Ashtead, Next

FTSE 250: Future, Shaftesbury, Dr Martens, Primary Health Properties

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

 

Index adjustments

 

Monday
10 January
Tuesday
11 January
Wednesday
12 January
Thursday
13 January
Friday
14 January
Monday
17 January
FTSE 100  

 

2.35 (1.6)      
Australia 200            
Wall Street            
US 500   0.07 0.52 0.07   0.08
Nasdaq            
Netherlands 25            
EU Stocks 50     0.3      
China H-Shares   0.3        
Singapore Blue Chip            
Hong Kong HS50   0.6        
South Africa 40            
Italy 40            
Japan 225      

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      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



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      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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