Alphabet stock fell 20% from its November highs, but as earnings near, the stock’s prominent position in the search engine market should continue to see it perform well.
When does Alphabet report earnings?
Alphabet reports earnings on 1 February, covering its fiscal fourth quarter (Q4).
Alphabet earnings – what to expect?
Alphabet is expected to report revenue of $72 billion, up from $65 billion in the third quarter (Q3). Earnings per share are expected to fall to $27.40 from $27.99 in the previous quarter.
Revenues continue to be driven by growth in its search engine division, helped by growth in its mobile search element. Improvements in local services ads and upgraded Google Assistant and Google Maps services are also likely to push revenue higher. Looking at the broader picture, the continuing growth of the global economy in its rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic should keep fuelling earnings growth, as businesses spend more on ads and consumers search more as they return to more of their pre-pandemic activities.
Alphabet earnings – broker ratings and forecasts
Fourteen analysts cover Alphabet, with 5 ‘strong buys’ and 8 ‘buys’. The current median target price is $3400, a premium of 29% to the current price (as of 26 January).
Alphabet stock price – technical analysis
Alphabet’s stock has fallen below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since April 2020. This remarkable run has seen the shares more than double, even with the 20% drop from peak to trough witnessed since November. A bounce from possible trendline support from the September 2020 low now suggests a fresh test of the 200-day SMA, and then on towards $2850 and trendline resistance from the November high.
A move above this would provide a more bullish view, but a rally above $3000 is needed to break the recent run of lower highs, notably the rallies since November have been accompanied by weaker stochastics, a sign of falling bullish momentum.
A failure to move back above $2860 would mark a fresh bearish development, although a full-blown reversal would need to see the price below $2650 and then fall through the post-September 2020 trendline.
Don’t give up on Alphabet
Tech stocks have taken a beating of late, falling sharply from record highs. But as Microsoft earnings have reminded investors, and as Alphabet should when it reports, these big stocks continue to control a powerful position in the US economy and are big cash generators. This is why they command a higher growth valuation than some, but a company at 22 times earnings with $42 billion in free cash flow is still a compelling prospect for many investors.