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The Week Ahead On The Markets


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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

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Week commencing 27 February

Chris Beauchamp's insight

US durable goods orders, China purchasing managers index (PMI) figures and inflation data in France, Germany and the eurozone are the key economic figures to watch out for this week. On the corporate front, earnings from UK housebuilders, Ocado and Just Eat Takeaway.com will be the major names to monitor.

 

Economic reports

  • Weekly view

Monday

1.30pm – US durable goods orders (January): orders to fall 2.1% MoM overall, and fall 1.9% excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (January): sales to fall 1.3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Tuesday

7.45am – French CPI (February, preliminary): prices to rise 5.7% YoY, down from 6% in January. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – Canada GDP (Q4): the Canadian economy is expected to grow 0.4% from 0.7% in Q3. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (February): index to rise to 46. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US consumer confidence (February): index to rise to 109.5 from 107.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

1.30am – China mfg & non-mfg PMI (February): mfg PMI to rise to 50.8 and non-mfg PMI to rise to 55. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

1.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (February): this private sector survey is expected to move back into expansion territory, at 50.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

8.55am – German unemployment data (February): unemployment rate to rise to 5.6%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1pm – German inflation (February, preliminary): prices to rise 8.4% from 8.7% YoY, and 0.5% from 1% MoM. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (February): expected to rise to 47.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 24 February): stockpiles rose by 7.6 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

10am – eurozone CPI (February): prices to rise 8.1% YoY and 0.5% MoM. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 25 February): claims to rise to 193K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Friday

1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (February): expected to rise to 53.8. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (February): expected to fall to 54.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Company announcements

 

 

 

Monday
27 February

Tuesday
28 February

Wednesday
1 March

Thursday
2 March

Friday
3 March

Full-year earnings

Bunzl,
Dechra Pharma

Ocado,
abrdn,
Travis Perkins,
St James's Place

Weir,
Persimmon,
Rathbones,
Aston Martin Lagonda,
Reckitt Benckiser

National Express,
LSE,
ITV,
Taylor Wimpey,
Schroders,
Metro Bank,
Haleon Flutter

Pearson,
Deutsche Lufthansa

Half/ Quarterly earnings

Zoom

HP,
Target

Abercrombie & Fitch,
Salesforce

Gap,
Broadcom,
Costco

 

Trading update*

Associated British Foods

 

 

 

 

 
 

Dividends

FTSE 100: Diageo, Hargreaves Lansdown, HSBC, Berkeley Group

FTSE 250: Diversified Energy Co, Safestore, Capital & Counties, Ashmore, Ruffer, HICL Infrastructure, Genus, Hays

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

 

Monday
27 February
Tuesday
28 February
Wednesday
1 March
Thursday
2 March
Friday
3 March
Monday
6 March
FTSE 100     18.11      
Australia 200 2.0 4.6 5.5 1.6 3.3 1.8
Wall Street 10.0 16.5   2.2    
US 500 0.40 0.24 0.62 0.36 0.15 0.11
Nasdaq 0.10 0.84 2.11     0.10
Netherlands 25            
EU Stocks 50            
China H-Shares            
Singapore Blue Chip            
Hong Kong HS50     57.0 4.0 2.5  
South Africa 40            
Italy 40            
Japan 225            

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      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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