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Earning season continues - EMEA brief 17th July



  • A sharp decline in oil prices has caused a lower Asian equity market session as energy sector is hit.
  • Netflix share tumble 14% late last night in after hours trading on poor quarterly results, helping to pull down the S&P futures.
  • The IMF has warned that tariffs imposed by the White House could initiate a $440bn knock to global growth and coined it the “greatest near term threat to global growth".
  • Yesterday BoA beat earning expectations, Deutsche Bank share jumped in surprise profits forecast, and BlackRock profits up as well. Could this be a barometer for other banks earnings and a possible trade idea over earning season?
  • Global regulators have started to lay the foundations to start monitoring crypto assets. BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world with $6.3 trillion in AUM, also announced a plan to build a crypto unit. Crypto markets rose sharply on the news.

Asian overnight: Asian markets largely traded in the red in the wake of a sharp deterioration in energy prices, with Japanese indices the only positive movers as they play catch up in the wake of yesterday’s bank holiday. Data wise, we saw the release of a weaker than expected inflation print from New Zealand, falling to 0.4% from 0.5%. Meanwhile, RBA minutes pointed towards a continued expectation that the next move will be a rate rise, although this remains some way off yet.

UK, US and Europe: US corporate earnings have taken the mantle in terms of being at the forefront of driving short term market sentiment. Yesterday a softer results release from Netflix saw the tech sector weaker and in turn the Nasdaq leading declines amongst the major US indices. Oil prices have come under enormous pressure overnight as suggestions that the US may waiver some sanctions on Iran oil. Looking ahead, a whole host of employment related data points from the UK brings the pound into focus. The dominant figure to look out of comes in the form of the average earnings number, with BoE’s Cunliffe specifically singling out the possible undershooting of wages as a reason to hold off on an August rate hike. Also keep an eye out for the US industrial production figure and an appearance from Fed governor Powell who is due to testify on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee.

South Africa:  The dollar has lost a bit of strength and in turn the rand has gained marginally this morning. BHP Billiton is down 1.69% in Australia suggestive of a softer start for diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is 1.3% lower in Asia suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. 

Earning season look ahead: Earning season continues with Royal Mail and TalkTalk putting out quarterlies today, along with Johnson and Johnson, Progressive, and Fidelity. Don't forget Morgan Stanley, American Express, Hochschild Mining, RPC Group and Severn Trent look to publish on Wednesday, and there may be some trade potential there give the results from banks yesterday.

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)410235145_2018-07-1707_56_30-ForexEconomicCalendar.png.4396f16c1c4c74b1cf0e25f722c68483.png

9.30am – UK employment data: May unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, June claimant count to be 11K from -7.7K, and May average earnings to rise 2.7% from 2.5% (including bonus). Markets to watch: GBP crosses.

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Rio Tinto produced 88.5 million tonnes of iron ore in the second quarter, representing a 14% rise compared with the same quarter in 2017. Improved weather and productivity throughout its Pilbara iron ore operations in Western Australia were most notable amongst reasons for this shift. 2018 shipments are expected to be towards to top end of its 330-340 million tonnes guidance.
  • Royal Mail traded in line with expectations, with a decline in addressed letter business (down 7%) and marketing mail over the three months to June 24 vs the same time last year.
  • CashBuild Revenue for the fourth quarter for the Cashbuild Group was up 4% on the fourth quarter of the prior financial year, with the 42 new stores opened or acquired since 1 July 2016 contributing 5% of the increase, whilst the 276 existing stores decreased by 1%. The growth for the fourth quarter together with the growth of the previous quarters, equates to an increase in revenue for the Cashbuild Group of 5% for the financial year, with new stores contributing 5% of the increase and existing stores remaining at similar levels.

Asos Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
Morgan Advanced Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
Deutsche Bank Upgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
Michelin Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
Investec maintain buy rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 440000c 
Investec maintain buy rating on Tencent with a target price of HK$530

Adidas Downgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Brunello Cucinelli Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman

Featured Video from IGTV

Dick Bove, veteran banks analyst and chief strategist at Hilton Capital Management, tells IGTV that Citigroup is most at risk from the US-Sino trade tensions. Bank of America (BoA) is his top pick in the sector, praising CEO Bryan Moynihan as ‘an expert CEO’. Bove says he can see the stock rising to $60. Meanwhile, he says JPMorgan’s numbers were ‘superb’ while Wells Fargo was ‘very disappointing.’ However if we enter into a recession, he says ‘all bets are off’.

Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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