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The Week Ahead On The Markets


MongiIG

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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

 
 

Week commencing 30 August

Chris Beauchamp’s insight

The end of the August holiday period sees the return of more important economic data, including the monthly US job surveys, the ADP and NFP reports. The NFP report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, but at a still-strong pace, while the ADP report is forecast to show an increase in job creation. Other key data include Chinese PMI figures for August and US ISM PMIs for the same month. Earnings news is still quiet, but UK retailer Superdry and housebuilder Barratt Developments report full-year numbers. Video

 

Economic reports

  • Weekly view

Monday

UK bank holiday – UK markets closed

1pm – Germany CPI (August, preliminary): prices to rise 4.3% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US new home sales (July): sales fell 1.9% in June. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Tuesday

2am – China mfg & non-mfg PMI (August): July mfg reading 50.4 and non-mfg reading 53.3. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

8.55am – German unemployment (August): expected to hold at 5.7%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

10am – eurozone inflation (August, flash): prices to rise 2.5% YoY and stay flat MoM, with core CPI rising 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (August): index to fall to 69.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US consumer confidence (August): index to rise to 124. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

2.45am – China mfg PMI (August): previous reading 50.3. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

1.15pm – US ADP employment report (August): 575K expected to have been created, from 330K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (August): index to rise to 59.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 August): stockpiles fell by 3 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

1.30pm – US trade balance (July), initial jobless claims (w/e 28 August): trade deficit to narrow to $75.1 billion, and claims to fall to 340K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Friday

2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (August): previous reading 54.9. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (August): 763K jobs expected to have been created, from 943K in the previous month. Unemployment rate to fall to 5.2% from 5.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (August): index to rise to 63. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

 

Company announcements

 

 

Monday
30 August

Tuesday
31 August

Wednesday
1 September

Thursday
2 September

Friday
3 September

Full-year earnings

 

 

 

Superdry,
Barratt Developments

Ashmore

Half/ Quarterly earnings

Zoom

Old Mutual,
Bunzl

Johnson Service Group

EnQuest,
Broadcom

 

Trading update

 

 

WHSmith

 

 

 

 

Dividends

FTSE 100: Melrose Industries (31 August), Glencore, Admiral, BHP Group, Antofagasta

FTSE 250: Redde Northgate, Alliance Trust, Rathbone Brothers, Convatec, Centamin, Savills, Clarkson, PageGroup, Quilter, Genuit, Londonmetric, Grafton Group

 

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

 

Index adjustments

  Monday
30 August
Tuesday
31 August
Wednesday
1 September
Thursday
2 September
Friday
3 September
Monday
6 September
FTSE 100  

 

13.91 (12.62)      
Australia 200 0.4 4.6 35.0 1.0 2.3 2.8
Wall Street 21.7 10.9        
US 500 0.52 0.30 0.72 0.11   0.14
Nasdaq 0.95 0.81 1.57 0.11   0.06
Netherlands 25 0.14          
EU Stocks 50     0.6      
China H-Shares 2.2   6.3   4.2  
Singapore Blue Chip       0.19    
Hong Kong HS50 2.7   29.9 2.7 14.0  
South Africa 40   533.4        
Italy 40            
Japan 225            

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      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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