OPEC(1.2m B/D agreed) continued thread.

[donaldprice]

Thought i would start this thread as between now and 4 days time we will know if OPEC agrees to an OPEC cut as well as the extent of it. Currently their is talk of a cut of at least 1 million. However with IRAN feeling that it should have special circumstances after years of US sanctions and other countries currently dealing with ISIS infiltrations they too wish to have exemptions.  As a result on Friday Saudi Arabia pulled out of planned talks with non-OPEC nations including Russia as disagreements about how to share the burden of supply cuts stood in the way of a deal to boost prices just days before a make-or-break meeting in Vienna. TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Sunday it would not take part in any OPEC production cuts for the "foreseeable future" as the North African country tries to bring crude output back towards pre-conflict levels.









[donaldprice]

Oil traders warn Opec must deliver production deal.

Cartel needs to cut in excess of 1m barrels a day to meet target of 32.5m b/d set in September

 

Some of the world’s biggest oil traders have delivered a stark warning to the Opec cartel, saying a failure to sign-off on a production cut this week will trigger another dramatic drop in crude prices.

 

The 14-member producer group meets in Vienna on Wednesday to try and secure the first supply deal since the financial crisis, after a two-year downturn that has decimated their budgets and upended the global oil industry.

While all sides have talked up the possibility of cutting output, with fears excess supplies could continue to plague the market well into 2017, negotiations are going down to the wire.

The group will need to cut in excess of 1m barrels a day to hit its target of 32.5m b/d that was set in a provisional accord in September.

“We think Opec will reach an agreement,” said Torbjörn Törnqvist, chief executive of Gunvor Group, one of the world’s largest independent oil traders.

“However, if they walk away without a deal the market will punish that result possibly $10 barrel or more.”

 

Opec, which pumps one in three barrels of crude globally, is at odds over how to divide a cut, with Iran and Iraq disputing the extent of their participation. Attention is also on big producers outside of the cartel, primarily Russia, who Saudi Arabia has pushed to take part.

Oil prices have swung sharply since Opec provisionally agreed to pursue output cuts in Algiers two months ago, touching a year-high of $53 a barrel before dropping almost 20 per cent by mid-November, as hedge funds slashed bets on the outcome of the deal.

Brent crude oil dropped 4 per cent on Friday to close near $47 a barrel, giving up almost all its gains for the week following five days of volatile trading.

“Recent Opec positions seem to indicate a serious attempt to restore co-ordination,” said Franco Magnani, chief executive of Italian oil major Eni’s trading arm.

“[but] we expect some short-term turbulence in the oil market, especially in the case of no agreement.”

 

On Friday, Opec’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia said it would will not attend a meeting with non-Opec producers such as Russia and Kazakhstan on Monday until the cartel reaches its own deal.

Iran — whose output is recovering after years under western sanctions — has argued it should be treated like conflict-hit producers Libya and Nigeria, which will be exempt from cuts.

Opec delegates said Iran offered a compromise in September of capping output near its pre-sanctions production levels around 4m b/d, but Tehran has not yet publicly committed to the details of any such deal.

Iraq, meanwhile, has reluctantly said it would cut output, but disputed the underlying figures from which curbs would be calculated, saying numbers provided to Opec by secondary sources undercounted its output.

“It hard to know what is posturing as part of a negotiating position, and what is an absolute red line,” said Yasser Elguindi at Medley Global Advisors.

“It is important to remember that when playing a game of chicken, one side ultimately has to blink to avoid a head-on collision.”

Two years ago Saudi Arabia led the group in embarking on a pump-at-will policy as a means of sinking higher cost producers such US shale, whose rapid growth during the $100 oil era of 2008-2014 threatened to take customers from Opec.

 

But two years on the ensuing price crash has been deeper and longer than Saudi Arabia first anticipated.

Output has fallen in the US since peaking in early 2015, but has stabilised in recent months, with most shale producers saying they are competitive at far lower price levels than before the crash.

Saudi Arabia needs a higher price to help stop a sharp economic downturn and to fund its decision to move towards a post-oil economy — it also fears a near trillion dollar drop in global oil investment may create future supply shortages.

Riyadh will not cut alone, however, as the kingdom no longer wants to be seen as the world’s swing producer, called on to raise and lower output as the market requires.

To reinforce that point Saudi Arabia wants to win the backing from big producers both inside and outside the cartel, especially Russia, as part of a broader global deal. A combined cut with Opec could, in theory, remove as much as 1.5m b/d from the market.

“I’m still optimistic that the consensus reached in Algeria for capping production will translate, God willing, into caps on states’ levels and fair and balanced cuts among countries,” Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier this month.

Russia pledged to support Saudi Arabia’s efforts to stabilise the oil market in September, but has since accelerated production to a post-Soviet era record of more than 11m b/d.

Russia said an offer to freeze its output — should Opec reach a deal — equalled a de facto cut given higher production forecasts for next year.

Kiru Rajasingam, a head oil trader at investment bank Citi, said the outlook for the oil market has deteriorated since the Algiers meeting as global supplies had risen further.

“A cut may no longer be able to raise prices by much,” said Mr Rajasingam. “But failure to reach a deal will probably mean the market remains under pressure next year.”

[donaldprice]

OPEC Deal Push Sends Algeria, Venezuela Ministers to Moscow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-27/opec-push-for-deal-sends-algeria-venezuela-ministers-to-moscow

 

[donaldprice]

Surprise surprise. If OPEC are not careful you could easily see well over 100,000 net short contracts and this is where things could get seriously ugly, specially for those oil producing companies that have very high debt on their balance sheets.

DHAHRAN, Saudi Arabia, Nov 27 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that he believed the oil market would balance itself in 2017 even if producers did not intervene, and that keeping output at current levels could therefore be justified.

Under a preliminary agreement reached in September in Algeria, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reduce its production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day, its first supply curb since 2008.

OPEC oil ministers meet in Vienna on Wednesday in an effort to finalise that deal; OPEC also wants non-OPEC producers such as Russia to support the intervention by curbing their output.

Falih said on Sunday Saudi Arabia was sticking to its position on the Algiers agreement that everyone should cooperate.

"We expect the level of demand to be encouraging in 2017, and the market will reach balance in 2017 even if there is no intervention by OPEC. But OPEC intervention aims to expedite this balance and the market recovery at a faster pace," he said.

Asked whether Saudi Arabia was keeping its output high in November at around 10.6 million barrels per day, however, Falih said: "The level of demand for Saudi crude is still high and very healthy."

"Regardless of Saudi and its market share, I think if we look at it as an indication of the health and recovery of the oil markets, it is a positive sign that makes us optimistic about the market recovery." "I don't think that we have one path only in OPEC meetings, which is cutting production – I think maintaining production at current levels is justifiable, taking into consideration the recovery of consumption and growth in developing markets and the United States," he added.

Falih, speaking to reporters at the headquarters of national oil giant Saudi Aramco, did not elaborate on Saudi Arabia's planned production levels.

A meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers was originally due to be held on Monday this week, but it was called off after Saudi Arabia declined to attend; Falih said on Sunday this was because no agreement within OPEC had been reached so far.

[donaldprice]

Saudi Arabia sets high bar for Opec supply deal

The group’s de facto leader pressures Iran and Iraq to accept larger share of cuts

 

Saudi Arabia has set a high bar for any oil supply deal ahead of Wednesday’s Opec meeting in Vienna, as it attempts to put pressure on regional rivals Iran and Iraq to accept a larger share of output cuts.

 

The oil production cartel is trying to reach an agreement to curb supplies for the first time since the financial crisis and put an end to a protracted two-year downturn in crude prices that has battered the economies of its members.

Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader, has offered to cut 4.5 per cent from its production levels of around 10.5m b/d in October, according to two people familiar with its thinking.

But in turn, Iran must freeze its production at around 3.8m b/d, while all members must accept the use of third-party production figures published by Opec, the people said. On top of that there must also be participation from producers outside the group, such as Russia.

Iran, however, argues only those countries that have ramped up production over the past two years — Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies — should cut back now.

Saudi Arabia’s hardline stance risks a further drop in prices, which traders have warned could fall by almost a quarter should a deal to curb output not materialise after nine months of talks between the 14-member cartel.

Brent crude oil, the international marker, was trading down 45 cents at $46.80 a barrel on Monday, extending a 4 per cent slide on Friday as traders became more cautious about the prospect of a deal.

While some analysts see the tough Saudi line as brinkmanship ahead of the ministerial meeting, the world’s biggest oil exporter has appeared less desperate to clinch a deal in recent days.

“The market will reach balance in 2017 even if there is no intervention by Opec,” said Khalid Al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s powerful energy minister, on Sunday. “I think maintaining production at current levels is justifiable.”

Saudi Arabia also decided not to attend a meeting with non-Opec countries, which was scheduled for Monday, until the cartel itself had reached a deal.

Opec is meeting in Vienna to try finalise a preliminary deal agreed in Algiers two months ago that would reduce its production to between 32.5m and 33m barrels a day and help mop up a persistent supply glut. The stakes are high. A failure to reach a deal could see crude oil fall below $40 a barrel.

“One thing few, if any, analysts will disagree with is that if Opec does not come up with a credible agreement to cut production on Wednesday oil prices will end the year below $40 and be chasing down $30 early next year,” said David Hufton of PVM, a London-based oil brokerage.

How production curbs will be distributed has dragged out between members with no concrete agreement yet reached. A last-minute diplomatic push is still underway with Algeria and Venezuela seeking to bridge any differences. An output target of 32.5m b/d would require a supply cut of 1.3m b/d.

Iran, which is recovering from years of Western sanctions, believes the Algiers accord laid out the case for the country to be exempt from any production deal in the same manner as conflict-ridden Nigeria and Libya. It is targeting production of at least 4m b/d.

“Saudis seem to have reneged on earlier promises,” Iran said in its state-news agency Mehr on Sunday.

While Saudi Arabia believes Iran should be shown some flexibility, it still wants its fierce regional rival involved in any deal. As such, the Kingdom is supporting a proposal for Iran to take its highest production between 2002 and 2016 and reduce it by 4.5 per cent which would hit 3.8m b/d.

To put that figure in context. Iran produced 3.72m/b of crude oil in October, according to secondary sources quotes by Opec.

Iran argues only those countries that have ramped up production over the past two years, since Saudi Arabia led Opec into a market share war with rivals, should cut back now.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers have accelerated output to record levels in the last two years.

“Iran had played no part in creating the overhang of supplies that have built up after November 2014, so why should we contribute to any production cut,” said one person familiar with Iran’s position.

Iraq, meanwhile, has reluctantly said it will be part of any deal but it has disputed the underlying figures from which any output curbs will be calculated.

But even if OPEC came to an agreement, Saudi Arabia has told OPEC members that any cut in production must be conditional on participation from producers outside the group, such as Russia, the people familiar with Saudi policy-making said.

Moscow has offered to freeze its output if OPEC reached a deal.

[donaldprice]

Headlines coming out via Livesquawk of a sources story from the FT

• Has offered to cut output by 4.5%
• Iran must freeze at 3.8mbpd
• All member must use 3rd party production figures
• Must have full participation from non-OPEC producers
• Iran says only countries that have increased production over past two years should cut back

[donaldprice]

Getting a lot of mixed messages from OPEC news feed over twitter and this is clearly reflected in the price-action on Brent crude.



[donaldprice]

-16000  short contracts as of 22nd november (Source CFTC). jUST UNDER 3000 long contracts added.

[donaldprice]

Interesting article from market watch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-opec-meeting-is-likely-to-disappoint-in-one-chart-2016-11-29?mod=markets_twitter_new&link=sfmw_tw

[donaldprice]

OPEC headlines crossing

• Saudi Arabia said to be ready to accept Iran and Iraq making a smaller oil cut than others
• Saudis said to only accept cut exemptions from Nigeria, Libya



[donaldprice]

UPDATE: Iran proposes in letter to OPEC that Saudi Arabia cut oil output to 9.5 million BPD - source

Getting ridiculous with these blame games i think

[donaldprice]

Explains their motives then?!

 

Iran Pulls Ahead in Race to Supply India With Oil

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-28/iran-pulls-ahead-in-fastest-growing-oil-user-as-opec-mulls-cuts?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

 

[donaldprice]

Wow the decending slope line still at present has such strong resistance, clearly it is going to take a definitive OPEC agreement to blast through this.



[donaldprice]

0630am article from Reuters this morning. Although OPEC could cut output hence why oil is going BRENTAL this morning, this will provide an increase in rig count has been rising since April this year (474) + shale also could turn out to be the winners as well out of this. If OPEC fails, then oil could be a good trade as without doubt it would fall very heavily but i also would be looking at oil companies with high debt relative to their balance sheets such as Tullow and Premier which are heavily being shorted.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKBN13P0JA

[donaldprice]

Just in uncomfirmed

Saudi's accepts that Iran can pump 3.9mbpd - Livesquawk #oott

 

[donaldprice]

Very nice correlation between TLW & BRENT.



FUND SHORT POSITIONS ABOVE.

 

[donaldprice]

Small article on todays brental rally today form zero hedge this morning.

Oil Soars 6% On Optimism For Imminent OPEC Output Deal

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/oil-soars-6-optimism-imminent-opec-deal

[donaldprice]

Oil soars as Saudi Arabia and Iran point to Opec deal (Source FT)

Algeria’s energy minister is “99% certain” cartel will agree output cut in Vienna

 

Oil prices soared 8.5 per cent to above $50 a barrel on Wednesday after two of Opec’s most powerful members said they were hopeful of reaching the first deal to cut supplies since prices started to plummet two years ago.

 

Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said the cartel, which controls about a third of the world’s oil production, was moving “close” to a deal, as Mr Al-Falih signalled that he was working to bridge a gap with regional rival Iran.

But he sought to manage expectations, saying he was “not concerned about a no-agreement scenario”, arguing the oil market was already moving back towards balance.

Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said all Opec members were ready to compromise and there was a “framework for a deal”. His tone was notably softer than in recent days. He said the cartel was targeting 1m to 1.2m barrels a day of cuts between its 14-members.

The ministers were speaking in Vienna where they are meeting to try and reach a deal to curb production and bring an end to a savage two-year downturn in prices that has shredded the budgets of its members. Any deal would mark a dramatic U-turn from a decision made in November 2014 to keep output high to pressure rivals.

 

Brent crude, the international oil marker, rose 8.5 per cent, to $50.30, in the early afternoon in London.

“The pressure is probably too great for them not to reach a deal,” said Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics at the meeting in Vienna. “At the end of this meeting the oil price could have a five handle or a three handle — that’s how big a potential swing we’re talking about.”

In September Opec reached a provisional accord in Algiers to bring its total production down to between 32.5m b/d and 33m b/d from a near record 33.8m b/d at the moment. But two months later, the group has yet to agree on how the cuts will be apportioned.

A deal could help the oil market recover from its longest downturn in a generation, which has hammered the share prices of oil companies and sent big producing countries spiralling downwards into recession.

Saudi Arabia is expected to shoulder the burden of any production cuts along with its Gulf allies, and Mr Falih on Wednesday said its oil output would take ‘a big hit’.

 

In return, the kingdom has asked Iran to curb output at close to 3.7m b/d, although privately it has indicated it may allow a higher level near 3.8m b/d, which is close to its current rate of production according to third-party assessments used by Opec.

Iran, which is finding its feet after years of western sanctions, initially said it should be exempt like conflict-ridden Nigeria and Libya. Later, however, it softened its stance, saying it will freeze its production closer to 4m b/d. Mr Zanganeh on Wednesday said Iran believed Opec should use so-called secondary sources as the basis of any agreement, a previous point of conflict.

Mr Falih told reporters that, based on Opec estimates, Iranian supply had recovered to pre-sanction levels and a freeze at this level would be well received by other members. “Hopefully this will be the framework,” he said.

Should Opec strike a deal on Wednesday, the Saudi energy minister said he expected Russia and other countries outside of the cartel to cut around 600,000 b/d of production. The kingdom believes the co-operation of major producers outside of the cartel is necessary for any deal to be effective.

But he also criticised Russia’s public stance that freezing its production, which has climbed to a post Soviet-era high, was acceptable.

“Freezing at an all-time high is not a contribution. [it’s] not a match to what Opec is doing. Our discussion with Russia has been about a cut from non-Opec,” he said.

 

Yasser Elguindi at Medley Global Advisors said: “The comments suggest there is a growing convergence on positions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is essential for any deal. The big surprise would be a Russian contribution not just to freeze but to join Opec in cuts.”

Algeria’s energy minister Noureddine Boutarfa, one of the architects of the September accord to reduce output, said he was “99 per cent certain” Opec would reach a deal on Wednesday to cut production but did not provide any specifics.

The ministers held a breakfast meeting ahead of the formal gathering, an unusual step pointing to a last-minute push to improve the atmosphere among the group’s members who have been at loggerheads since Algiers.

Abhishek Deshpande, analyst at Natixis said: “A deal now looks more likely, but there are still obstacles to overcome in the meeting.”

[donaldprice]

Very Nice intersection on Brent.



[donaldprice]

OPEC agrees to cut by 1.2 mbpd to 32.5 mbpd - delegate (Source bloomberg)

[donaldprice]

Oil back above $50 as Opec agrees supply cut (source FT

Compact to axe 1.2m b/d major policy reversal for Saudis

 

Opec has agreed to cut supplies for the first time since the global financial crisis eight years ago, sending prices soaring above $50 a barrel as Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies accepted big reductions in production.

 

The cartel, which pumps a third of the world’s oil, reached the deal to cut 1.2m barrels a day to about 32.5m b/d for six months from the start of January after six hours of talks in Vienna. There is an option to extend the agreement until the end of 2017.

The agreement represents a major reversal in policy for Saudi Arabia, which two years ago tried to undermine US shale and other high-cost producers by raising its output in face of fast-growing supplies outside the group after four years of $100 oil. That led to a crash in prices that shook the industry and roiled oil-reliant economies. The shares of shale producers climbed in New York on the news.

Other major non-Opec producers, including Russia, agreed to participate in the cut by lowering their production by 600,000 b/d. Russia’s energy minister said the Kremlin would reduce supplies by 300,000 b/d.

“It was a historic day. We did the energy market a huge favour and demonstrated Opec is alive and well,” said Guillaume Long, Ecuador’s foreign minister who represents the country at Opec. “There was a lot of doubt but we demonstrated cohesion, seriousness, rigour and political will.”

 

The agreement sent Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, up $3.80, or 8 per cent, to $50.16 a barrel. Oil had sold off ahead of the meeting with the three most powerful Opec members — Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq — at loggerheads and threatening to scupper an agreement.

Two years of low prices has upended their economies — particularly Saudi Arabia, which has begun a series of wrenching economic reforms and austerity measures — and led them to put their difference aside.

Opec hopes the deal will help the oil market recover from its longest downturn in a generation, which has hit the share prices of oil companies and sent big producing countries spiralling into recession.

“They’ve pulled a rabbit out of the hat. But the ***** is in the details and compliance with the cuts will be what makes or breaks the deal”, said Yasser Elguindi of Medley Global Advisors. “While crude prices have risen on the deal, Opec will need to convince a sceptical oil market it can actually deliver.”

Saudi Arabia will shoulder the bulk of the production cuts, reducing output by almost 500,000 b/d to 10m b/d, while Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates agreed to curbs of 300,000 b/d of production.

Iran, meanwhile, agreed to freeze its production at almost 3.8m b/d, close to its current rate, according to third-party assessments used by Opec. Iran had resisted cuts, having only recently returned to international oil markets following the easing of sanctions.

 

Iraq, which has disputed its need to cut and looked like it could block a deal, agreed to a 210,000 b/d supply cut to 4.35m b/d. Conflict-hit Libya and Nigeria were granted exemptions.

The cartel reached a provisional accord in September to bring its total production down to between 32.5m b/d and 33m b/d from a near record 33.8m b/d at present. But it has spent the past two months still trying to reach an agreement on how the cuts would be apportioned.

Iran and Iraq kept disputing the extent of their participation in the deal, while Saudi Arabia made its participation conditional on other producers — inside and outside Opec — sharing the burden of cuts.

Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, said the country was ready to cut oil production “gradually” in the first half of next year.

“As a result of our active discussions over the past few months with key Opec and non-Opec countries, Russia will reduce oil production in steps by 300,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2017,” said Mr Novak.

“Russia’s voluntary output curb is tied to Opec’s compliance with the 32.5m barrel a day level . . . as well as the maximum participation of non-Opec countries.”

It is not immediately clear where the additional 300,000 b/d of non-Opec production cuts will come from. Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Oman are among the biggest producers outside of the cartel.

The S&P 500’s oil and gas exploration and production index — which is mostly made up of US shale companies — rocketed 10.8 per cent by early afternoon in New York, its biggest one-day gain in eight years and its highest level since mid-2015.

But it was a banner day for almost all US energy companies. The broadest US gauge of energy stocks jumped 5.5 per cent, the biggest one-day rise since 2011.

 

[donaldprice]

Leaner and meaner: U.S. shale greater threat to OPEC after oil price war. (Source reuters)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-usa-shale-idUSKBN13P0C8?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

 

[donaldprice]

OPEC's big cut to oil output may not be so impressive: Russell (Reuters source)

Just shows that what they agreed on today, was not as impressive as it seems.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-opec-meeting-idUSKBN13Q30U?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=583f8c5704d3010bf292e6d7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

[Caseynotes]

OPEC cuts but not enough, supply side surplus (OPEC and nonOPEC) remains.

 



[donaldprice]

The deal does not start until january, so they will without a shed of doubt pump as much oil as they possibly can.

[Caseynotes]

Also, a 'gradual' phase in of cuts for the deal which is only signed up for just 6 months ('maybe extended'). 

[Caseynotes]

Oil rally may run out of steam as price heads into resistance and details of the deal are digested, question marks over verification, too small a cut, gradual phase in, limited time frame etc.

 



[donaldprice]

Oil could very well hit $60, but the fundamentals suggest that given that price it is only offering the chance for shale producers to step in, it will however benefit inflation in the eurozone without doubt. But the inflation nutters may end up being disapointed. They may want to look to Zimbabwe and see how they got inflation up lol.

  

[donaldprice]

I do agree with this article, not suggesting to short any time soon, but i am not convinced that this will work out over the medium term.

Oil price rally likely short-lived as OPEC deal not enough to reduce glut (Source reuters).

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil-asia-idUSKBN13Q40K?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5840351704d3014b1533d4f3&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

[donaldprice]

Do the numbers behind the Opec production deal add up? (Source FT)

Output of 32.68m barrels a day is almost 200,000 b/d higher than the new target

 

Now the hard work begins.

 

The supply agreement agreed by Opec on Wednesday sent oil prices soaring above $50 a barrel but there are many reasons for caution, not least in making sure no one cheats and producers from outside the cartel also contribute.

While the deal looks straightforward, it is anything but and the ***** is in the detail.

The conference documents released on Wednesday evening show Opec countries, except Libya and Nigeria, reducing production from the start of January by 1.2m barrels a day to 32.5m for an initial period of six months.

But extrapolating the numbers from the statement produces a production ceiling of 32.68m b/d, which is almost 200,000 b/d higher than the new target.

“The difference might come from production estimates from Nigeria and Libya,” says Tamas Varga of PVM, an oil brokerage.

Another number that stands out relates to Iran.

 

Because Tehran has spent years under sanctions, Opec agreed to award it an output baseline of 3.975m b/d — the highest pre-sanctions level it produced in 2005 — unlike most others whose baseline is what they pumped in October.

A 4.5 per cent reduction from this level arrives at almost 3.8m b/d, which delegates say is an average level at which it has finally agreed to freeze for six months from January. Iran’s current output is closer to 3.7m, which gives the country room for an increase of at least 90,000 in theory at least.

The reason for this fudge was to placate hardliners in Iran who wanted to make sure the country did not commit to any production cuts and meet demands from Saudi Arabia that Tehran had to be part of any deal. By using this convoluted formula, both sides can save face.

Analysts have also suggested Opec may have miscalculated due to Angola’s production target being derived from its output in a different month than other members.

It was agreed that, due to field maintenance affecting Angola’s output by about 200,000 b/d in October, the African country’s target would instead be based on what it produced the previous month. But Opec does not appear to have added the 200,000 production to its starting point.

 

But what has analysts scratching their heads is the production ceiling.

Even though Indonesia has been suspended from Opec, the country’s production of about 720,000 b/d is included in the new production ceiling of 32.5m b/d. So too is output from Nigeria and Libya, the countries which are exempt.

“The main flaw of the agreement remains that it exempts some countries from the cuts (Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia) but formulates a supply target that includes them,” says Olivier Jakob, of Petromatrix, a consultancy.

And here lies the main problem with the first part of the agreement. Unless militants blow up more pipelines in Nigeria or fighting flares up again in Libya, their production is likely to keep rising.

“Even if there is full compliance with the agreed cutbacks, actual total Opec output is likely to be above the 32.5m b/d target, because Opec has effectively underestimated likely output for Libya and Nigeria,” said FGE, an oil consultancy.

The other leg of Wednesday’s deal involves big non-Opec producers.

Russia says it will make half of the 600,000 b/d cut the cartel wants to see from non-Opec countries. Its energy minister Alexander Novak says the cuts will be gradual and all of Russia’s oil producers have agreed to participate.

Analysts, however, are sceptical over how much publicly listed companies like Rosneftand Lukoil will deliver. Moreover, it is not clear what baseline Russia will set its reduction against. If this is based on a projection for next year, it is not clear that any barrels will be leaving the market.

 

Equally, it is not clear where the other 300,000 b/d non-Opec cuts will come from. Kazakhstan and Oman have indicated some willingness to contribute, but details are sketchy.

So this part of the agreement also has its flaws and, overall, the deal announced on Wednesday does not guarantee a decline in global stocks next year.

“Non-cooperation from non-Opec, output increases from Libya and/or Nigeria or non-compliance from member counties will add to already brimming oil stocks,” says Mr Varga.

Nevertheless, a meaningful cut of supply beckons and that will speed up the rebalancing of the oil market after a savage two-year downturn. Saudi Arabia is going to cut production by 486,000 b/d, while a 300,000 b/d cut will come from its Gulf allies — the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.

It also sends a powerful message to oil market bears — Opec, an organisation that had been written off by many, is back. Indeed, less than 24 hours after the deal, Brent crude was up 2 per cent and approaching $53 a barrel.