Market direction predictions

[truckman]

Although I have only recently become involved with FX and Crypto trading, it is pretty apparent that only those with insider information can predict which direction the market price will probably go, IE. up, sideways or down. 

Anyone out there who has found a signal provider (free or paid for) that actually works, other than those who are following a market trading trend that is already established?

If their system was any good why would they be selling or giving it away for free, surly they would just use their system for their own trades and make a lot of money.

I wouldn't be selling a system if it worked as good as they suggest their systems  work, I would just trade with it and make the equity grow.

Comments and thoughts welcome on the above.

[Caseynotes]

15 minutes ago, truckman said:

Although I have only recently become involved with FX and Crypto trading, it is pretty apparent that only those with insider information can predict which direction the market price will probably go, IE. up, sideways or down. 

Anyone out there who has found a signal provider (free or paid for) that actually works, other than those who are following a market trading trend that is already established?

If their system was any good why would they be selling or giving it away for free, surly they would just use their system for their own trades and make a lot of money.

I wouldn't be selling a system if it worked as good as they suggest their systems  work, I would just trade with it and make the equity grow.

Comments and thoughts welcome on the above.

you are mixing 2 different things up, market direction and entry signals.

There are plenty of clues as to direction such as higher time frame charts, momentum, chart structure. Price like most things will continue in the same direction until it meets an immovable force.

Look at any daily chart and the majority of candles are continuation candles not reversal candles.

The problem is where and when to dive in because the market is always trying to lure you in then dump you out and take your money, exactly what you are trying to do to it. 

With experience you can get a feel for where price wants to go, usually based on supply and demand levels, if price fails at a level it tends to backtrack to look for more support before trying again.

With regards to systems you are quite right, why would anyone sell a successful one. The game is to construct your own that testing shows has an overall positive expectancy for your preferred market and time frame. Not easy to do, takes time and effort.

[truckman]

Hi Caseynotes,

Yes I agree, Cable was a good example yesterday (9th July 2021), on a slow climb all day from around 11 am until the markets closed down for the weekend 😒.

 

I have looked at different indicators, EMA seems to work quite well for me, the problem is they are all historic, I need to polish that crystal ball!

So, how do you get around the problem of the market dumping you out? 

To be honest I don't think the market is dumping us out (apart from the stop limit hunters or manipulators (if its a software glitch it was programmed in on purpose and is still manipulation) with their wild price spikes at the beginning and end of trading), the market is just following supply and demand and we have a 50 / 50 chance of being correct, a better chance if we follow the trend, unless we place the deal at the high or low end of the chart, IE. buy cable at 1.43 when you know it will go straight line or fall due to profit taking.

Set the stop loss so it cannot be reached and adjust it if required if the trade goes against you further and just ride the storm until the market price changes direction in your favour?

You wouldn't want to get stopped out on a 8 point or higher stop limit, only to see the price change in your direction again.

I know it will put the risk to reward ratio out in your favour, that doesn't matter if you do not take a losing trade.

I read a post on here where the author never closes a loosing deal, he just waits for the price to change direction and go in his favour, which short of some major world changing event it will go through this price cycle, and even after the event it will recover IE. March 2020 all the markets fell and recovered again. 

Thank you for your input, I think we need to nurture the community post content, some of of the posts are just crazy simple to find the answers to.

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, truckman said:

Hi Caseynotes,

Yes I agree, Cable was a good example yesterday (9th July 2021), on a slow climb all day from around 11 am until the markets closed down for the weekend 😒.

 

I have looked at different indicators, EMA seems to work quite well for me, the problem is they are all historic, I need to polish that crystal ball!

So, how do you get around the problem of the market dumping you out? 

To be honest I don't think the market is dumping us out (apart from the stop limit hunters or manipulators (if its a software glitch it was programmed in on purpose and is still manipulation) with their wild price spikes at the beginning and end of trading), the market is just following supply and demand and we have a 50 / 50 chance of being correct, a better chance if we follow the trend, unless we place the deal at the high or low end of the chart, IE. buy cable at 1.43 when you know it will go straight line or fall due to profit taking.

Set the stop loss so it cannot be reached and adjust it if required if the trade goes against you further and just ride the storm until the market price changes direction in your favour?

You wouldn't want to get stopped out on a 8 point or higher stop limit, only to see the price change in your direction again.

I know it will put the risk to reward ratio out in your favour, that doesn't matter if you do not take a losing trade.

I read a post on here where the author never closes a loosing deal, he just waits for the price to change direction and go in his favour, which short of some major world changing event it will go through this price cycle, and even after the event it will recover IE. March 2020 all the markets fell and recovered again. 

Thank you for your input, I think we need to nurture the community post content, some of of the posts are just crazy simple to find the answers to.

The forum has had a major problem since the start, people start posting, trolls start trolling, IG does nothing because they're all IG customers, people stop posting, trolls go off somewhere else, slowly people start posting again ...

Round and round it goes, not changed since I joined the forum in early 2016.

The market works to a rhythm and is trying to dump people out all the time, those big enough to move the market are reversing it to shake out the late comers and make those contracts available again.

You can either play large time frames with large stops or smaller time frames with smaller targets in attempting not to get dumped out.

Not having stops and not averaging losers are the 2 big no-no's for traders but surprisingly many big traders do it. It's easier to figure out direction than a good entry point so they get in and wait for the direction to play out as they expect, if price is going against them they add because it's even cheaper.

Would definitely not recommend it to a retail trader.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Caseynotes