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      10/06/21 10:53

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    Joined 31/01/23 10:12
  • Posts

    • Charting the Markets: 31 January FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq consolidate after latest leg higher. EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall back while USD/JPY rallies, ahead of central bank decisions. And Brent, gold and aluminium prices drop ahead of central bank meetings. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023           This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
    • EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall back while USD/JPY rallies, as investors await central bank decisions The dollar has recovered to an extent this week, but the uptrends in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, along with the downtrend in USD/JPY, remain intact for now.  Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023  EUR/USD continues to drop back from recent high A modest pullback continues here with EUR/USD, eating into gains made since the beginning of the year. As markets brace themselves for a double hit of a Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) meeting within a 24-hour period, EUR/USD has fallen back somewhat from the eight-month highs it reached last week. This is the first real weakness since the first week of January, and would leave the uptrend intact unless we see a move back below $1.04. If the price recovers above $1.05 then the bullish view is arguably intact and a bounce back towards $1.09 and higher may well develop. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD stalls at December high Weakness here with GBP/USD has seen the price falter at a similar level to early December, with a possible negative divergence in the daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) sending a cautionary signal for bulls. Just as EUR/USD traders have to deal with the Fed and ECB decisions within the same 24-hour period, cable traders must cope with the Bank of England (BoE) decision following hard on the heels of the Fed’s. Much thus depends on that period for the next move in GBP/USD, though it will still arguably take much steeper losses to reverse the broadly bullish outlook. For that to happen we would need to see a drop below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), followed up by a fall below the 200-day SMA. Having failed to establish a higher high, and with the MACD negative divergence a risk, the uptrend could come under pressure. A reversal above $1.24 would put the buyers back in charge. Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY edges up The greenback in USD/JPY has seen a modest recovery off its January lows, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) dials down any hint of hawkish rhetoric. Nonetheless, the downtrend is still firmly placed. A move back above the 50-day SMA to suggest perhaps some further short-term strength, but the mid-December high around ¥134.00 would act as a barrier. Sellers will be looking for a fresh reversal that puts a move back to the January lows in play, and then sees a move below the May 2022 low around ¥126.50. Source: ProRealTime
    • In a week packed with global macro and micro releases, the key events locally are a series of updates on the Australian housing market, which continues to cool as higher interest rates reduce affordability.   Source: Bloomberg   Forex Inflation Currency Interest rate CFD AUD/USD  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023  Kicking things off today, housing credit growth for December rose by just 0.3%, the slowest pace since October 2022. At the same time, Retail sales fell by 3.9% in December (vs -0.2% expected), for the most significant monthly fall since August 2020. The fall in December unwinds the 1.4% gain in November, boosted by Black Friday cyber sales. Core Logic Dwelling prices (Wednesday) are expected to show housing prices fell -1.1% in the seasonally quiet month of January, extending the correction that began in May 2022 Building Approvals fell by 9%, following a 56% fall in October. The market is looking for a modest bounce back of +1% in December. Building Approval data is a notoriously volatile data set, and expectations range from -5% to +8% Housing Finance fell for a sixth straight month in November to be 24.8% below the peak of January 2022. The decline is expected to continue in December, with the market looking for a 2.5% fall in December (Friday). Following the release of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data last week, the RBA is widely expected to lift its official cash rate by 25bp from 3.1% to 3.35% next Tuesday. The interest rate market then has another 50bp of rate hikes priced by August of this year, which would take the cash “peak” rate to 3.85%. The RBA has made clear its “priority is to re-establish low inflation and return inflation to the 2–3 per cent range over time.” While a series of RBA rate hikes in 2023 would be another blow to the housing market, they would be good news for the AUD/USD, already enjoying the tailwinds of the China re-opening and higher commodity prices. Overnight the past 24 hours, the AUD/USD has fallen back to .7050 on soft retail sales data, risk aversion flows, and with the US dollar in demand overnight for month-end rebalancing flows. After reaching and marginally breaching our August .7137 target from this article in Mid-January here last week, we expect to see the current pullback in the AUD/USD continue towards uptrend support at .6900c. At worst, the pullback may extend to the 200-day moving average at .6810 to work off overbought readings and to rebuild energy for its next leg higher towards .7300c. AUD/USD daily chart   Source: TradingView Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.
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