U.K. Interest Rate Decision

[MongiIG]

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the Bank Rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely because short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

 

GBP news event: 

BoE Interest Rate Decision at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 0.10%

Estimate: 0.10%

Actual: TBA at 12:00 (UK Time)

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP. Source from investing.com

 

BoE MPC Vote Cut at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 0/9

Estimate: 0/9

Actual: TBA at 12:00 (UK Time)

 

BoE MPC Vote Hike at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 0/9

Estimate: 3/9

Actual: TBA at 12:00 (UK Time)

 

 

BoE MPC Vote Unchanged at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 9/9

Estimate: 6/9

Actual: TBA at 12:00 (UK Time)

 

 

BoE Quantitative Easing at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: £875B

Estimate: £875B

Actual: TBA at 12:00 (UK Time)

 

How will GBP be affected today? Share your thoughts and views.

 

All the best - MongiIG

 

[MongiIG]

GBPUSD 1 minute chart before 12:00 (UK Time) BoE event. IG Charts

 

FTSE100 1 minute chart before 12:00 (UK Time) BoE event. IG Charts

 

BOE rates out 12:00 GMT, let us know if you’ll be trading and what results you’re hoping for. Who will be trading?

Due to expected volatility guaranteed stop distances may be widened.

 

All the best - MongiIG

[MongiIG]

GBPUSD 1 minute chart after 12:00 (UK Time) BoE event. IG Charts

 

FTSE100 1 minute chart after 12:00 (UK Time) BoE event. IG Charts

 

GBP news event results: 

BoE Interest Rate Decision at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 0.10%

Estimate: 0.10%

Actual: 0.10%

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP. Source from investing.com

 

BoE MPC Vote Cut at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 0/9

Estimate: 0/9

Actual: 0/9

 

BoE MPC Vote Hike at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 0/9

Estimate: 3/9

Actual: 2/9

 

 

BoE MPC Vote Unchanged at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: 9/9

Estimate: 6/9

Actual: 7/9

 

 

BoE Quantitative Easing at 12:00 (UK Time) 4th November 2021.

Previous: £875B

Estimate: £875B

Actual: £875B 

 

Share your thoughts and views if you traded the GBP/UK interest rate decision event.

 

All the best - MongiIG

[skyreach]

Today's  rate decision is a surprise to the market.

The BoE give hints of an increase, 0.15%. in advance than they do the opposite!!!!!

WHY DO CENTRAL BANKERS GENERALISE, THROW IN HINTS, SAY IT WILL BE XXX OR COMMUNICATE IN MYSTICAL WAYS? They micro manage statistical information as if it was gospel truth. Yet, it IS BASED ON THEORIES. Besides any modelling has certain assumptions built in too.

This conclusion makes experts take them for their word, or end up reading between the lines.

It demonstrates possibly:

1.   Make all believe they are invincible and know best (yet the Bond market is far more able to decide from known facts).

2.   They have many uncertainties but not show it publically.

3.    The perceived economic theory modelling does NOT give confidence to be CLEAR, PRECISE OR DECISIVE.

The Arts (as sciences, include Economics, Sociology, Law, Politics etc...) are million miles from the the workability of the Exact Sciences (like Physics, Engineering, AI, Biotechnology, Electronics, etc...).

How many are happy with the way Central Banks operate?

 

[MongiIG]

11 hours ago, skyreach said:

Today's  rate decision is a surprise to the market.

The BoE give hints of an increase, 0.15%. in advance than they do the opposite!!!!!

WHY DO CENTRAL BANKERS GENERALISE, THROW IN HINTS, SAY IT WILL BE XXX OR COMMUNICATE IN MYSTICAL WAYS? They micro manage statistical information as if it was gospel truth. Yet, it IS BASED ON THEORIES. Besides any modelling has certain assumptions built in too.

This conclusion makes experts take them for their word, or end up reading between the lines.

It demonstrates possibly:

1.   Make all believe they are invincible and know best (yet the Bond market is far more able to decide from known facts).

2.   They have many uncertainties but not show it publically.

3.    The perceived economic theory modelling does NOT give confidence to be CLEAR, PRECISE OR DECISIVE.

The Arts (as sciences, include Economics, Sociology, Law, Politics etc...) are million miles from the the workability of the Exact Sciences (like Physics, Engineering, AI, Biotechnology, Electronics, etc...).

How many are happy with the way Central Banks operate?

 

Hi @skyreach

Bank of England surprises market and keeps rates unchanged. Policymakers want to wait to see how the labour market reacts following the end of its furlough scheme.

The Bank of England (BoE) surprised analysts on Thursday by keeping interest rates unchanged, saying it needs more time to gauge how the end of a programme that paid furloughed workers during the coronavirus pandemic will impact the nation’s jobs market.

Thursday’s decision to keep the bank’s main interest rate at its all-time low of 0.1 percent surprised analysts and investors given surging energy and food prices that have contributed to an overall spike in inflation.

The vote by the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee was 7-2 in favour of keeping the benchmark rate as is. The two policymakers who voted for a 15 basis-point rate hike said it was needed to offset domestic and global cost pressures, according to the meeting’s minutes.

The seven BoE policymakers who voted against a hike said there was “value” in waiting to see where the jobs market lands after the government ended a salary programme “before deciding when a tightening in monetary policy might be warranted”.

Holding back on interest rate hikes places the BoE in line with some other major monetary policymakers around the world. The European Central Bank and United States Federal Reserve recently said they would also leave interest rates unchanged. The Fed did however say on Wednesday that it would start scaling back its bond-buying programme that has helped support the economy during the pandemic.

The BoE’s new forecasts pictured weaker British economic growth with the forecast for 2022 cut to 5 percent from a previous 6 percent. It also predicted that inflation would jump to 5 percent in April 2022, driven by high energy prices.

Source: News Agencies

 

All the best - MongiIG

[MongiIG]

12 hours ago, skyreach said:

Today's  rate decision is a surprise to the market.

The BoE give hints of an increase, 0.15%. in advance than they do the opposite!!!!!

WHY DO CENTRAL BANKERS GENERALISE, THROW IN HINTS, SAY IT WILL BE XXX OR COMMUNICATE IN MYSTICAL WAYS? They micro manage statistical information as if it was gospel truth. Yet, it IS BASED ON THEORIES. Besides any modelling has certain assumptions built in too.

This conclusion makes experts take them for their word, or end up reading between the lines.

It demonstrates possibly:

1.   Make all believe they are invincible and know best (yet the Bond market is far more able to decide from known facts).

2.   They have many uncertainties but not show it publically.

3.    The perceived economic theory modelling does NOT give confidence to be CLEAR, PRECISE OR DECISIVE.

The Arts (as sciences, include Economics, Sociology, Law, Politics etc...) are million miles from the the workability of the Exact Sciences (like Physics, Engineering, AI, Biotechnology, Electronics, etc...).

How many are happy with the way Central Banks operate?

 

Hi @skyreach

Check out the blog entry about Central Banks below, explains and covers the role of central banks, what it is, the major central banks, the responsibilities, interest rates and the impact on the forex markets.

 

The blog below is on the US Federal Reserve Bank:

 

All the best - MongiIG

[skyreach]

Thank you for the key data on Central Banks.

Yes, they are private entities. The first of them was the FED, promoted and advised government officials or politicians by private bankers and business men from 1911 meeting until the legal setup of the FED in 1913. By-the-way the 1933 law passed gave full authority to the FED to act on behalf of the Government to handle its financing , rates and handling of inflation.

As to whether the Central Banks REALLY bring and maintain stability is open to question. Historically these Bankers have repeatedly said "This time it is different", that there is no bubble (hyperinflated assets being created). One example is Ben Bernanke famously advised Gorden Brown totally incorrectly along this idea.

Ben Bernanke was a very clever man who totally understood the destructive erosion of the value of money (purchasing value) when he was chief at the Economic Council AND hence fully promoted gold (as a standard and store of value.). But he was hired by the FED and from that point had to change his tune to join in on money printing without it being backed by gains in productivity or some gains in the store of value measure.

Once the gold standard was removed (by advice given by bankers) in the USA it immediately ended the Bretton Wood Agreement (became a failure -- and that was originated to handle the 1929-32 crash & Depression). It is ok for the USA to apparently print money like mad because it is the key world currency on which trade is done and all countries are trapped in that modeled system.

Nobody stopped the excess printing of money (paper money printed in the past but now done digitally at a press of a button for the computer programs to whiz out). Helicopter money that has been so hugely promoted  glibly is just doing the same OLD PRACTICES THAT DID NOT SOLVE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM.

ALL CENTRAL BANKS FOLLOWED THE FED's MODEL. That is why we get world depression -- it is a domino effect all based on the SAME FAULTY MODEL.

As I said in the previous note, Rates and Inflation are not the key determinants of an economy. Even Harry Dent as proven WHAT ECONOMIC MODEL WORKS AND WHY. Inflation has several meanings and effects -- some good and some bad. Even the Austrian School of Economics is a better model in some ways than the Conventional being used by most currently. However most economic theories of the past had issues. But the key fact remains that none of them could predict short term or long term. Most got it wrong. Rarely some got it right and then made a big noise about.

It seems the mentality is that Humans like to feel that they are right and the other fellow is wrong even when they are wrong. No one CHANGE THEIR THEORY and those who got it very badly wrong do not lose their jobs, nor the way they operated, the mechanisms they used get dumped (because that it not work).

Harry Dent seems to be an Economist who has produced the best (if not fully) a model that works.

  As regards current Inflation, well that is a big issue as some think (and some press reports ) that we are heading for hyperinflation ... others think it is temporary ... whilst others consider that we are headed for Deflation ahead. Deflation appears when TOO MUCH (extremely EXCESS) MONEY IS IN THE SYSTEM CREATED BY QE.

Repurchasing that back into the system as it is merely is creative accounting and somebody (usually the taxpayer, who did not create the problem) ends up paying for the aftereffects. The mechanism is , PRINT loads of money, Take the private industry / bankers toxic debts and give freely to them printed money. They will use the money to be invested in companies needing money, and into goods and services. AND hey presto, ALL WILL BE WELL!!!!!! THE REALITY HAS BEEN THE OPPOSITE!!!!!!!!

Moral of this story is: OLD FAILED SOLUTIONS USED AGAIN AND AGAIN DO NOT SOLVE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM OF BOOMS AND BURSTS. And THAT NATURAL FORCES (market forces) WERE NOT ALLOWED TO REGULATE THEMSELVES , i.e private industry should not be subsidised or propped up. If people lose their jobs then the government should subsidise them and retrain them for new jobs. Failing companies and old unchanging industries are the fault of top executives running them -- poor performers in truth. Hell, most individuals would be demoted or sacked for bad performance that worsened their company, not rewarded.

EXAMPLE CASE

In the last recession FEAR OF GOD was put to government and the nation as if the world would totally collapse if the bankrupt banks failed. Governments panic and fear mass unemployment and they would be voted out of office so take up any solution that temporarily appears to work. Certainly it is a major issue but failed collapsed banks can be made to go , just as any other bad company. Their assets can be bought back cheaply instead of taking over toxic debts of others who ruined the system. Other banks  holding Bonds lose out (& private individuals) but that IS the nature of this game.

 

 

[MongiIG]

1 hour ago, skyreach said:

Thank you for the key data on Central Banks.

Yes, they are private entities. The first of them was the FED, promoted and advised government officials or politicians by private bankers and business men from 1911 meeting until the legal setup of the FED in 1913. By-the-way the 1933 law passed gave full authority to the FED to act on behalf of the Government to handle its financing , rates and handling of inflation.

As to whether the Central Banks REALLY bring and maintain stability is open to question. Historically these Bankers have repeatedly said "This time it is different", that there is no bubble (hyperinflated assets being created). One example is Ben Bernanke famously advised Gorden Brown totally incorrectly along this idea.

Ben Bernanke was a very clever man who totally understood the destructive erosion of the value of money (purchasing value) when he was chief at the Economic Council AND hence fully promoted gold (as a standard and store of value.). But he was hired by the FED and from that point had to change his tune to join in on money printing without it being backed by gains in productivity or some gains in the store of value measure.

Once the gold standard was removed (by advice given by bankers) in the USA it immediately ended the Bretton Wood Agreement (became a failure -- and that was originated to handle the 1929-32 crash & Depression). It is ok for the USA to apparently print money like mad because it is the key world currency on which trade is done and all countries are trapped in that modeled system.

Nobody stopped the excess printing of money (paper money printed in the past but now done digitally at a press of a button for the computer programs to whiz out). Helicopter money that has been so hugely promoted  glibly is just doing the same OLD PRACTICES THAT DID NOT SOLVE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM.

ALL CENTRAL BANKS FOLLOWED THE FED's MODEL. That is why we get world depression -- it is a domino effect all based on the SAME FAULTY MODEL.

As I said in the previous note, Rates and Inflation are not the key determinants of an economy. Even Harry Dent as proven WHAT ECONOMIC MODEL WORKS AND WHY. Inflation has several meanings and effects -- some good and some bad. Even the Austrian School of Economics is a better model in some ways than the Conventional being used by most currently. However most economic theories of the past had issues. But the key fact remains that none of them could predict short term or long term. Most got it wrong. Rarely some got it right and then made a big noise about.

It seems the mentality is that Humans like to feel that they are right and the other fellow is wrong even when they are wrong. No one CHANGE THEIR THEORY and those who got it very badly wrong do not lose their jobs, nor the way they operated, the mechanisms they used get dumped (because that it not work).

Harry Dent seems to be an Economist who has produced the best (if not fully) a model that works.

  As regards current Inflation, well that is a big issue as some think (and some press reports ) that we are heading for hyperinflation ... others think it is temporary ... whilst others consider that we are headed for Deflation ahead. Deflation appears when TOO MUCH (extremely EXCESS) MONEY IS IN THE SYSTEM CREATED BY QE.

Repurchasing that back into the system as it is merely is creative accounting and somebody (usually the taxpayer, who did not create the problem) ends up paying for the aftereffects. The mechanism is , PRINT loads of money, Take the private industry / bankers toxic debts and give freely to them printed money. They will use the money to be invested in companies needing money, and into goods and services. AND hey presto, ALL WILL BE WELL!!!!!! THE REALITY HAS BEEN THE OPPOSITE!!!!!!!!

Moral of this story is: OLD FAILED SOLUTIONS USED AGAIN AND AGAIN DO NOT SOLVE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM OF BOOMS AND BURSTS. And THAT NATURAL FORCES (market forces) WERE NOT ALLOWED TO REGULATE THEMSELVES , i.e private industry should not be subsidised or propped up. If people lose their jobs then the government should subsidise them and retrain them for new jobs. Failing companies and old unchanging industries are the fault of top executives running them -- poor performers in truth. Hell, most individuals would be demoted or sacked for bad performance that worsened their company, not rewarded.

EXAMPLE CASE

In the last recession FEAR OF GOD was put to government and the nation as if the world would totally collapse if the bankrupt banks failed. Governments panic and fear mass unemployment and they would be voted out of office so take up any solution that temporarily appears to work. Certainly it is a major issue but failed collapsed banks can be made to go , just as any other bad company. Their assets can be bought back cheaply instead of taking over toxic debts of others who ruined the system. Other banks  holding Bonds lose out (& private individuals) but that IS the nature of this game.

 

 

Hi @skyreach

Thanks for sharing your feedback and insight in great detail.

 

All the best - MongiIG