Jump to content

Aluminium price pushed by Australian export ban, Brent Crude jumped 15% in a week


ArvinIG

Recommended Posts

1647915536249.jpg
Source: Bloomberg

 
 

Aluminium

Australia’s ban on alumina and bauxite exports to Russia, the two most essential ingredients for producing aluminium, pushed up the price for the most widely used metal. While aluminium hasn’t been targeted by sanctions, the production of the metal is facing server disruption following the new move.

The 'everyday metal', which is used in everything from the production of cans and smartphones to cars and airplanes, was already running low before the Ukraine war isolated the second-largest exporter from the world economy. As such, the price of aluminium has climbed to its all-time high above $3800 per ton early this month.

The daily chart shows the price has bounced back from 50 MA and targets 20 MA following three consecutive gaining sessions. The long-term bull momentum since December remains valid as demonstrated by the ascending trend line connected by the lows.
The four-hour chart also suggests the strength of the price as the candlestick is now betraying all the major moving averages and is glued in an upward trajectory.

The next resistance is looking at the $3638, which will help the metal regain all the loss in the past two weeks. The months-long trend line will support the price at around $3268 per ton.

Aluminium daily chart

Aluminium daily chartSource: IG

Aluminium hourly chart

Aluminium 4-hour ChartSource: IG

Brent Crude

The price of Brent Crude oil has been moving up for the sixth straight day and kicked off the new week by more than a 6% jump. Brent Crude, the global benchmark, is trading as high as $114.80 a barrel on Tuesday, enjoying a weekly gain of over 15%. The price rises in the backdrop of EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss further sanctions against Russia.

The price of the most crucial energy fell from its decades-high level two weeks ago and is now attempting to move back to its rooftop. The daily chart shows the price has conquered the short-term indicator to stand on the 20 days moving average, with both 50 and 100 MAs are a distance away.

For the near term, the level of $117.4 would be a key hurdle before the price re-enters into the $120 plus zone. A support area between $108 to $109 can be found from the daily trend line.

From the sentiment point of view, the RSI in the hourly chart has touched on the oversold territory, which could slow down the bull-bias buying in the near term. However, the RSI level from the daily chart is still under the average level for the past two months, meaning there is potential for the price to edge higher.

Brent Crude daily chart

Brent Crude daily chartSource: IG

Brent Crude hourly chart

Brent Crude hourly chartSource: IG

Follow Hebe Chen on Twitter @BifeiChen

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Australia
22 March 2022

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Solana ($SOL) is facing a challenging period in the market, with its price dropping to $130.56 USD. Here’s a closer look at what’s happening and what might be next for SOL. Recent Price Decline 15.17% Drop in a Month: Over the past month, Solana coin has fallen by 15.17%. This decline reflects the broader market’s pressure on the cryptocurrency. 8.5% Weekly Fall: Just this week, Solana saw an 8.5% drop, a sign that bears are firmly in control. Despite attempts to maintain a bullish outlook, the market seems to have different plans. Critical Support Levels Breakdown of $134 Support: Recently, SOL broke through the $134 support level, raising concerns that further declines could be on the way. Key Support at $122: The $122 level is now under the spotlight. This price point has been tested six times, and many whales view it as crucial. A break below this could push SOL towards $90. But if this support holds, it might set the stage for a bullish turnaround. $100 Support: While the $100 support level is still a bit distant, it’s essential to watch if the current bearish momentum continues. Revisiting this level could spell trouble for Solana. Changing Market Sentiment Shift to Bearish: The overall sentiment around Solana is slowly turning bearish. Since March, SOL has struggled to make new highs, and the current price action suggests that new lows could be coming. Potential Bullish Outcome: However, some analysts believe that if Solana manages to stay above $122 throughout 2024 and 2025, it could be incredibly bullish for the future, possibly leading to significant gains in 2025. Upcoming Breakpoint Event Historical Price Surges: There’s a potential catalyst on the horizon. Historically, Solana has seen price surges two weeks before its annual Breakpoint event. In previous years, SOL surged by 35% in 2021 and 2022, and by 60% in 2023. 2024 Event: With 16 days left until the 2024 Breakpoint event, could we see another rally? Only time will tell. The Importance of $122 Support As Solana approaches the $122 support level, all eyes are on whether it will hold. A break below could lead to further declines, while maintaining this support could bring back some bullish momentum. As always, stay informed, and remember the old adage in crypto: "buy the rumor, sell the news." Keep watching the charts as we near the 2024 Breakpoint event.  
    • One of the prominent cryptocurrency exchange, has maintained its commitment to user security through its Protection Fund. This self-insured fund, designed to safeguard user assets against potential threats such as hacks, fraud, and market volatility, has shown remarkable stability and growth. The fund has consistently maintained a value above $390 million, surpassing Bitget's initial commitment of $300 million. The exchange ability to continues to maintain a reserve ratio well above 150%, indicating a strong buffer against potential risks. The fund's value has shown correlation with Bitcoin's price movements, demonstrating its responsiveness to market conditions. Over the observed period, the fund's value peaked at $424.8 million and reached a low of $350.7 million, showcasing its ability to withstand market volatility while maintaining a substantial baseline. In February, the fund reached an all-time high valuation of over $543 million, coinciding with broader market uptrends. The Protection Fund's portfolio includes high-liquidity cryptocurrencies such as BTC, USDT, and USDC, which contributes to its stability and liquidity. This diversification strategy aims to mitigate risks associated with external market factors. Bitget's approach of self-funding and internally managing the Protection Fund allows for potentially quicker response times in critical situations, as it operates independently of external regulations and approvals. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, the performance and management of such security measures will likely remain a point of interest for both users and industry observers.
    • Gold Elliott Wave Analysis Gold has maintained its strong upward momentum throughout 2024, with prices nearing another high in just over three weeks. The commodity has gained over 23% so far this year, and it is now testing levels close to a new all-time high. Despite this bullish progress, a minor pullback is likely to occur soon.   Daily Chart Analysis On the daily chart, Gold has been following a long-term bullish trend since December 2015. According to Elliott Wave analysis, the supercycle wave (IV) of this larger uptrend was recently completed, setting the stage for a new impulsive move in wave (V). Within this wave (V), waves I and II were completed in May and October 2023, respectively. Gold is currently advancing within wave (3) of 3 (circled) of wave III, which has the potential to extend above the 2550 level before reaching its peak.   The consolidation phase observed between April 12 and June 26 aligns with wave 4 of (3), serving as a corrective structure within the larger trend. The current upward movement is shaping into an ending diagonal structure for wave 5 of (3). If this diagonal structure holds, Gold is expected to break previous highs and achieve a new peak. However, if the structure breaks down, a correction in the form of wave (4) may follow. Wave (4) would provide the market with a chance to digest recent gains before potentially resuming the bullish trend.   H4 Chart Analysis On the H4 chart, the current price action is unfolding within wave v (circled) of 5 of (3), following the completion of a flat structure for wave iv (circled). The market has seen minor pullbacks, but as long as the price remains above 2472, further upward rallies are anticipated. For short-term traders, these minor dips could provide entry points as the price targets new highs. In the medium term, however, the completion of wave (3) is nearing, and a pullback for wave (4) is expected. This pullback could be a healthy correction, allowing the market to regroup before the final stages of wave (V) resume. Traders should be prepared for potential reversals as wave (3) concludes and wave (4) begins, marking a pivotal moment in Gold's multi-year bull cycle. This analysis emphasizes that while Gold continues to show strength, the Elliott Wave structure suggests an impending correction before the broader uptrend can resume. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us