Jump to content

Crude Oil Prices May Rise on NFPs after OPEC+ Meeting Boosted WTI to Resistance

Recommended Posts


  • WTI crude oil prices rallied overnight to reverse deep intraday losses
  • OPEC+ output hike doubts, EIA inventories & sentiment were factors
  • Oil may rise on NFPs next as retail trader bets offer bullish outlook

Oil settles mixed on questions over crude supply, demand, strong dollar

Crude oil prices rallied 2.4% on Thursday, reversing earlier losses in the session. In fact, if you measure it from the low, WTI rallied over 5.5% into the close, marking a notable intraday reversal. There were a couple of fundamental dynamics aiding energy prices. The first is the aftermath of this week’s OPEC+ meeting.

WTI rallied despite OPEC+ agreeing to increase daily output by 648k barrels per day starting in July from 432k anticipated prior, meaning more supply. This comes amid potential supply gaps as the west sanctions Russia over its attack on Ukraine. Moreover, prices likely rallied because investors doubt that the group can commit to these goals as most of the countries will likely struggle to meet higher production targets.

Later in the session, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released weekly stockpile data. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 5.07 million barrels. That was much worse than the -1.1 million contraction seen, indicating a tightening supply. Meanwhile, improving risk appetitive likely bolstered sentiment-linked oil prices. The S&P 500 rallied 1.84% on Thursday.

Over the remaining 24 hours, WTI will be closely watching May’s US non-farm payrolls report. The world’s largest economy is expected to add 320k jobs, down from 428k in April. Recent data suggest that NFPs could surprise lower, perhaps weakening hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations. If that is the case, and sentiment continues improving, then it stands to reason that WTI could follow higher.


On the daily chart, WTI is attempting to breach the key 116.61 – 116.64 resistance zone. There was a false breakout in late May, and since then the commodity has been consolidating around that range. A confirmatory upside push could open the door at uptrend resumption, placing the focus on March highs (124.76 – 129.41). Otherwise, a turn lower exposes the rising trendline from December.

Crude Oil Prices May Rise on NFPs after OPEC+ Meeting Boosted WTI to Resistance

Chart Created Using TradingView


Taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), about 34% of retail traders are net-long. Since IGCS tends to function as a contrarian indicator, this hints that prices may continue rising. Downside exposure has increased by 23.82% and 7.61% compared to yesterday and last week respectively. With that in mind, this is offering a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

Crude Oil Prices May Rise on NFPs after OPEC+ Meeting Boosted WTI to Resistance

IGCS Chart Pulled from June 2nd report


Jun 3, 2022 | DailyFX
Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

  • Great! 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Thanks for the input,  The issue is being resolved.  IG took a position Twice.  Remedy is imminent.
    • Prepare to witness a paradigm shift in Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions with Merlin Chain, an innovative platform that integrates the ZK-rollup network, decentralized oracle, and on-chain BTC anti-fraud module. With seamless compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), Merlin Chain sets new standards for security, transparency, and interoperability in the blockchain ecosystem.  Creating a Safe and Transparent Environment: At the core of Merlin Chain's mission lies its commitment to creating a safe and transparent environment for all investors. By integrating anti-fraud security solutions directly into the blockchain, Merlin Chain mitigates the risk of fraudulent activities and ensures the integrity of transactions. With Merlin Chain, users can trust that their assets are protected and transactions are executed with the highest level of security and transparency. Excitement mounts as Merlin Chain (MERL) prepares for listing on Bitget Exchange on April 19th, 2024, at 10:00 (UTC). This milestone event not only amplifies Merlin Chain's visibility but also provides users with a trusted platform to trade and engage with the MERL token. As Merlin Chain continues to push the boundaries of Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions, its listing on Bitget Exchange marks a significant step forward in its journey towards broader recognition and adoption.
    • Rarible is a revolutionary platform for artists and creators in the digital world. It functions as both: Software: Artists can use it to create and sell unique crypto assets representing ownership of their digital work, like illustrations or animations. These are known as Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs). Marketplace: Buyers can discover and purchase these NFTs directly from creators, eliminating the need for intermediaries.   Built for the Community: It is a community-owned marketplace, powered by its native token, RARI. Owning RARI tokens gives holders a voice in shaping the platform’s future.   Exciting News! Rarible recently listed its token (RARI) on the Bitget exchange, along with a “candybomb” event to reward holders. This is a great opportunity for artists and crypto enthusiasts alike to explore the world of NFTs on Rarible.
  • Create New...