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Markets Sea-Saw and Market Volatility Says What?


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Background

Most investors understand that Markets go in cycles. And many believe that it is the economy that drives markets. Others recognise that it is company Fundaments that drives the markets. Then again there are those who consider that charting patterns methodologies, e.g. charting patterns, Elliott wave, Gann, and a few other methods are the governing forces.

Most believe that economies are governed by Central Banks interest rates manipulations which does have a a huge cost fluctuations, higher and lower. Most believe that central banks dictate rate decision changes. Yet it has been proven empirically that central banks rate changes followers  of the Bond Markets, who are guided by the the real time economics of the markets forces.

Many believe we have huge purchasing power loss due to fiat money supply manipulations, i.e. without a backing of real confidence from the use of the gold standard that kept money stable when it was used. Ben Bernanke was the Economic Council Chief in the 1970s who fully believed and campaigned for the reintroduction of the gold standard. Later the Fed hired him to be the central bank Chief. So, ever since he changed his tune and followed the theories of the central bank and play with manipulations of the money supply as the only determinant of economic heath condition of the nation, banks and companies. Basically he left his original beliefs behind, which I believe is a great shame. He became a follower, the 'herd mentality' thinker as most central banks do.

So most professionals will ponder over in minute detail the value effect of Demographics changes (are long term – TM), Geopolitics (temporary effects – TE), external causes such as climate changes (long term effect overall – EC), and Massive Debts build up (MD). Yet when you think about these factors they have a short term influence on markets themselves, others will have a slow gradual build up effect, and Debts have a catastrophic effect due to excessive build up that suddenly gets hit by rising interest rates. The beginnings of debt implosions where the companies sell off to manage their debts, and others go burst. And the massive margin bets based on debts will have their own major problems too.

Current Scene

I have written in past blogs information concerning some of the above, including the Central banks. And about the key indicators that effect the play of the Markets should anyone wish to review that.

We went into a recession in 2022. It became the big talk. The correct key indicators were there in place. Now most investors in the financial world, as well the the public retail investors are made to think the 'good times' are back because of x,y, and z, For those who have not read past boom and bursts history with the common factors and indicators that were present in each, will be mislead sooner or later. Many have written about this to help us out. There are top professionals who can quantify this well and the super rich as well as top professional bankers who have their money primarily invested in recession proof areas which they do not openly talk of, except a few.

The Rothchilds banking dynasty famously got rich hundreds of years ago, as well as the later Rockefellers and the Morgans, etc..., because they understood the key determinants that applied and used it for themselves. They are not going to tell you or me what applies at the time otherwise they would not make that money themselves, or else make far less. So they would sell when the majority were buying near the peak of a market and buy when all were selling at the peak of the bear market.

The financial markets use PR to persuade people to buy / sell. Most make little returns for the public (in good times) yet these companies made a lot for themselves! Major national magazines always have a headline to the effect of buy, buy buy; or, to sell, sell, sell Yet markets turn sometime soon afterwards!!!!.

Most economists and Fund managers have a very varied views of what is happening in the markets too. They also think the central banks are know it all. Yet fail to see that in over hundred years the FED, for example, has failed to maintain stable money (values) and booms and busts are still with us. That IS A LOT CONFUSION for retail investors. Who DO YOU BELIEVE? Sure, in a proper bull market any Tom, **** and Harry can make paper profits unless it is taken. But what tells you the Bear market is coming, or it is in progress?

I suggest investors do their own homework to figure out the the real scene that is operating now.

For starters, Markets work in phases in a bull market, and in phases in bear market. The economy is one of the LAST to fall into a bear market. We have market volatility playing up and that usually is an indicator too, of what is coming next when that is used in the context of other key indicators. It takes work in getting to know how it all works and fits the larger jigsaw puzzle of market behaviour. So you can believe what the so called 'traditional market professionals' are saying and be a 'herd follower', OR , use your own researched data to work out if the pain or gain is ahead.

You can USE one of the workable charting methods that exists. And they do work, but it requires practice and understanding of these methods to really make them work. It ALSO requires discipline once you know one of these workable methods!!

In months ahead we could be in a market move that will surprise many. This is an important thing to watch for. Use the market charts to see were we are heading, longer term.

For starters M2 money supply is contracting. What does that mean?

And how can you tell a bear market has started, or that a turn is taking place?

What will a Debt implosion result in?

You have the key factors to focus on!!!! All the best.

 

 

  • Like 1
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1 hour ago, skyreach said:

Background

Most investors understand that Markets go in cycles. And many believe that it is the economy that drives markets. Others recognise that it is company Fundaments that drives the markets. Then again there are those who consider that charting patterns methodologies, e.g. charting patterns, Elliott wave, Gann, and a few other methods are the governing forces.

Most believe that economies are governed by Central Banks interest rates manipulations which does have a a huge cost fluctuations, higher and lower. Most believe that central banks dictate rate decision changes. Yet it has been proven empirically that central banks rate changes followers  of the Bond Markets, who are guided by the the real time economics of the markets forces.

Many believe we have huge purchasing power loss due to fiat money supply manipulations, i.e. without a backing of real confidence from the use of the gold standard that kept money stable when it was used. Ben Bernanke was the Economic Council Chief in the 1970s who fully believed and campaigned for the reintroduction of the gold standard. Later the Fed hired him to be the central bank Chief. So, ever since he changed his tune and followed the theories of the central bank and play with manipulations of the money supply as the only determinant of economic heath condition of the nation, banks and companies. Basically he left his original beliefs behind, which I believe is a great shame. He became a follower, the 'herd mentality' thinker as most central banks do.

So most professionals will ponder over in minute detail the value effect of Demographics changes (are long term – TM), Geopolitics (temporary effects – TE), external causes such as climate changes (long term effect overall – EC), and Massive Debts build up (MD). Yet when you think about these factors they have a short term influence on markets themselves, others will have a slow gradual build up effect, and Debts have a catastrophic effect due to excessive build up that suddenly gets hit by rising interest rates. The beginnings of debt implosions where the companies sell off to manage their debts, and others go burst. And the massive margin bets based on debts will have their own major problems too.

Current Scene

I have written in past blogs information concerning some of the above, including the Central banks. And about the key indicators that effect the play of the Markets should anyone wish to review that.

We went into a recession in 2022. It became the big talk. The correct key indicators were there in place. Now most investors in the financial world, as well the the public retail investors are made to think the 'good times' are back because of x,y, and z, For those who have not read past boom and bursts history with the common factors and indicators that were present in each, will be mislead sooner or later. Many have written about this to help us out. There are top professionals who can quantify this well and the super rich as well as top professional bankers who have their money primarily invested in recession proof areas which they do not openly talk of, except a few.

The Rothchilds banking dynasty famously got rich hundreds of years ago, as well as the later Rockefellers and the Morgans, etc..., because they understood the key determinants that applied and used it for themselves. They are not going to tell you or me what applies at the time otherwise they would not make that money themselves, or else make far less. So they would sell when the majority were buying near the peak of a market and buy when all were selling at the peak of the bear market.

The financial markets use PR to persuade people to buy / sell. Most make little returns for the public (in good times) yet these companies made a lot for themselves! Major national magazines always have a headline to the effect of buy, buy buy; or, to sell, sell, sell Yet markets turn sometime soon afterwards!!!!.

Most economists and Fund managers have a very varied views of what is happening in the markets too. They also think the central banks are know it all. Yet fail to see that in over hundred years the FED, for example, has failed to maintain stable money (values) and booms and busts are still with us. That IS A LOT CONFUSION for retail investors. Who DO YOU BELIEVE? Sure, in a proper bull market any Tom, **** and Harry can make paper profits unless it is taken. But what tells you the Bear market is coming, or it is in progress?

I suggest investors do their own homework to figure out the the real scene that is operating now.

For starters, Markets work in phases in a bull market, and in phases in bear market. The economy is one of the LAST to fall into a bear market. We have market volatility playing up and that usually is an indicator too, of what is coming next when that is used in the context of other key indicators. It takes work in getting to know how it all works and fits the larger jigsaw puzzle of market behaviour. So you can believe what the so called 'traditional market professionals' are saying and be a 'herd follower', OR , use your own researched data to work out if the pain or gain is ahead.

You can USE one of the workable charting methods that exists. And they do work, but it requires practice and understanding of these methods to really make them work. It ALSO requires discipline once you know one of these workable methods!!

In months ahead we could be in a market move that will surprise many. This is an important thing to watch for. Use the market charts to see were we are heading, longer term.

For starters M2 money supply is contracting. What does that mean?

And how can you tell a bear market has started, or that a turn is taking place?

What will a Debt implosion result in?

You have the key factors to focus on!!!! All the best.

 

 

The whole world of finance is designed to be confusing - keep everything as simple as possible

Agree with what you have posted

The markets work exclusively in tandem with cycles - work out the cycles and you can create a "road-map" that the market will follow

Cycles, Cycles, Cycles, Cycles, Cycles, Cycles, Cycles and cycles - Control EVERY market that is freely traded - This is why I created my Time Cycle thread, but it would have gone straight over 99% of peoples heads

The following are Composite cycle Indexes that I have and have created for various markets - as you can see they are all highly accurate and a simple "Follow the Red line" approach is highly rewarding  - The RED line shows DIRECTION ONLY, its NOT a price Indicator

This is a screen shot ages ago I took when building for a forex market - this was a handful of cycles operating in the forex market and placed together to form the RED Composite Index

The BLUE flat line is simply from me projecting price forward x years so that I can see the RED Comp Index line - as you can see BECAUSE the cycles are pre-set and operate ALL the time, you can then predict 

973.JPG.2cc4d5c04edcd5d1a43ed1b7c96b4769.JPG

This is the SP500 Index Late 2022

897.JPG.7f369563bcdc88df19813ac93675e41a.JPG

then SP500 of late - Hence the current correction in price

Note back in 2021, the RED Comp Index showed a top late 2021!

972.JPG.fff7d4e5f9da76fbae868cba69f29511.JPG

then this is a UK Stock (WEEKLY chart) - screen shot taken ages ago - just using 3 cycles prevalent to that particular stock!

902.thumb.JPG.c62fcd70bc783713b9b843ab82933988.JPG

You can only lead a horse to water!!!!!!

This is as close to the Holy Grail of trading/Investing as you can get in terms of predictive power - but the work of creating the Indexes is Intensive, hence why very few people would bother

Bear in mind, once you sync a market to the cycles that drive it, you can forward project price at a flat-lined projection to see future dates and the RED line will show you what that market is likely to do around those dates - this is because cycles don't alter, they REPEAT FOREVER, what you can't predict is the level/effect PRICE will have on the cycle

Anyone thinking Fundamentals or news drives market prices after reading this is simply past the point of delusion

PS - Climate change, guess what? It also works to a ultra long-term cycle of thousands of years, the Earth cools, then warms, then cools, then.....you get the picture of a cycle - So don't get swept up in the current euphoria on climate change - remember "they" used to call it global warming until the temperature stats showed that the planet wasn't warming after all

THT

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