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WARNING SIGNALS FLASHING


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It is interesting that “news” is now, September 2023, filtering out that the economy could falter as US bankruptcies are on the rise. The media only begins to highlight this now. This has actually being rising for sometime and will get worse, as one of my past blog stated. And read “The way of the Markets” blog if you have not yet done so.

Jobless claims is becoming worrying. Jobs growth is down badly recently. Layoffs are on the horizon. But the key here is that jobless claims did not shoot up fast under the weight of huge fast rates rises. This is simply due to the fact that many baby boomers are constantly retiring and employers have to keep hold of what they have got until they have to address it for a worsening economy. It is odd how most economists failed to take that into account.

As I had said, in the past, the economy is last to fall in a recession / depression (could be the latter this time). Time will bear this out.

China will have its deflation (that damages many sectors of businesses) no matter how they introduce BIG government spending (as western countries do). Its peoples economic throat has been cut by its policies, that kind of news does not get shown much in western news. Maybe the west may use this as an excuse for the next stage of the recession's start, or some other key primer to say, suddenly with a surprised look on their faces, “the economy is going into a recession”.

China just copies the poor western practices and it will cost their population dearly. They also have copied many of the west's industrial products and technologies to get ahead, and build up a huge military for war. Their dictator leader is obsessed with dominance and control over countries and the seas for absolute power. This may not be too strange to us in our backyard of history. As, for some shadow, the genetic entity, it seems to push the unconscious obsession for dominance. History is full of too many examples of this, and their eventual downfall, at great cost of lives.

And President Biden's Big government plans will NOT solve any economic or financial problems (except it will help the bankers in other ways), as I have mentioned before.

The coming Digital Dollar (to replace the paper based currency) means a CHANGE OF CURRENCY as the fiat money (paper currency was ruined by 98% loss in its value under the FED stewardship). So much for the way financiers and big businesses who look up to them!!!!!

I wonder why they fail to see the GLARING FAULTS in the money system with NO backing from a gold standard? But, I guess, they love short term advantages over the more longer term stable lasting enterprises. Or they cannot just look beyond the sort term 5-10-years). General Motors is in likely problems with over reached overheads and Union issues.

Big businesses who had dirt cheap heavy loans out will be continuing to restructure them under the heavy rates rises which had to happen eventually. But you should reflect on the fact that their Executives and economists did not consider the full economic cycle normal routine to bear in mind the future rates rise!!! They were all seduced and blinded by the cheap money, the Dark Side. Their greed was greater and above their company's long term financial health concerns, after-all, the bankers had, once again, “solved economies from collapsing by way of issuing new endless supply of money” (false monetary theory practices). And you thought money now grows on trees! Check out on how the REAL ECONOMY OPERATES.

More bankruptcies will follow on forward, USA, China and Europe.

Key economic data is used to justify how the markets will move next. This is often used by the Big Money boys. Then moves in the markets are sold as if the “market” panicked because of factor X! Others big players then might follow. You see that in the trend as it develops.

Nothing goes up, or down, in a straight line for long but in cycles. A big trend up or down shows the power of that continuing wave move.

So what is the takeaway from all this NOW?

If you are a long term Bull then watch for change of direction and key indicators. It has already started in my view. You have to be more versatile in the coming change.

Do not listen to all the hype by “experts” otherwise you could end up with the wrong information to make evaluations in the markets. One day economic factor x is “bad”, week later another economic factor y is “good”! That will not help nor give you a good template to work from, as a trader or as an investor.

Bankers KNOW what is going to come down the road but only give titbit of information and make general public statements such as to say “maybe this” and “some chance of a recession happening”, etc... but the main facts they have paints a different picture and they are already using the real facts to their advantage, before others. But they have lent too much (excessive) money and created derivatives products for extra income (by selling it to any financial company willing to go for them).

Huge, historic highest ever in margin debts are betting for the bull to continue (most are in the financial industry!!!). And a lot of the public are into bullish options!!!  A lot of Bulls will be caught napping down the time-line. You have this indicator at major market highs.

Market Indices are usually not the main places to look to, except in major trend change periods. Look at Industry Sectors for how well they are doing and which companies in it are.

Those who follow cycle turns should have gotten one major down turn in 2022, and another this year, for another down turn again. They can let you know on that, if that is the case!!!

Know well the charting patterns and cycles, and the major trend, or the main trend change.

Or, follow a successful tip-sheet service who recognises a coming bear phrase, to guide you.

 

 

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This what I'm expecting:

I've had these cycles on my chart since 2017, as the starting point in Nov/Dec 2016 - As a result of this I plan to recheck the dates (double check) sometime in 2024 - I'm pretty confident in the dates, but as I ran the cycles all the way through to 2034 I might have got a couple mixed up, as they were/are manual inputs onto the charts shown, so might have a "user error" involved

So far been pretty accurate

Oct 2025 should be a VERY high probability LOW point - you could virtually bet the house on it (100% win rate since 1792) 

For this to be a low we need the prior months to be highs/tops!  the BoE published on their website a few years ago to expect unemployment to increase in the coming years, but for me the overriding fact is the cycle due date, it should cause a fairly decent decline down into the event from highs in 2024-2025

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The TURQUOISE Feb/Mar 2025 cycle date should be Interesting too - That's another different but completely reliable cycle to the Oct 2025 cycle, depending upon where you are in the overall cycle etc - This cycle is linked to a huge number of significant turns such as 1987, 2002, 2007, 2009 - oh what the hell, here it is 2nd chart below RED lines projected from the 1987 low

As you can see in the YELLOW box on the chart - produced that chart in 2015

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THT

 

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THT ---   thanks for that valuable info.

It is good to see someone who knows and uses Cycles.

W. D. Gann and Elliot Wave cycles are very workable too. And the market players will try to take advantage to MAKE traders WRONG often. This is their one of their psychological tools used. After all, if you were right the other big players would make far less money.

 

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